The open Republican 8th District from which Rep. Dave Reichert (R-Auburn) is retiring has gone Democratic. Late yesterday, pediatrician Kim Shrier (D) was declared the winner, defeating former statewide candidate and ex-state Senator Dino Rossi (R). Dr. Shrier has a 12,600+ vote lead entering final counting, which is enough to compensate for any gains that Mr. Rossi could see as the vote count progresses. This is Dr. Shrier’s first run for public office. With this Republican seat converted to the Democrats it appears the latter party will gain more than 30 seats.
Since October 1st, eight US House candidates added more than $1 million to their campaign coffers, thus extending the record setting fundraising pace that we have seen during the current election cycle.
House Majority Whip Steve Scalise (R-LA) lead the group with $1.94 million raised. House Intelligence Committee chairman Devin Nunes (R-CA) is the other Republican in the group, bringing in an additional $1.14 million. The remainder are Democrats, featuring many familiar faces in 2018 fundraising circles: Andrew Janz, Rep. Nunes’ opponent ($1.03 million); challenger Katie Hill ($1.0 million) who is opposing Rep. Steve Knight (R-CA); Harley Rouda ($1.0 million) challenging Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-CA); Amy McGrath ($1.11 million) who is running against Kentucky Rep. Andy Barr; Upstate New York candidate Antonio Delgado ($1.33 million) matching up against freshman Rep. John Faso; and Washington open seat candidate Kim Shrier ($1.6 million) who is opposing former state Senator and statewide candidate Dino Rossi (R) in the seat that retiring Rep. Dave Reichert (R-Auburn) currently represents. Seattle-based Elway Research just released their new poll of the open congressional campaign between former state Senator and statewide nominee Dino Rossi (R) and pediatrician Kim Shrier (D). The two are running to replace retiring Rep. Dave Reichert (R-Auburn) in a Seattle suburban district.
The results are a bit surprising when considering previous polling that found the candidates tied. According to Elway (10/5-9; 400 WA-8 registered voters), Mr. Rossi has now built a 49-39% advantage. The researchers claim the lunge toward Rossi is a result of the Kavanaugh confirmation process. Additionally, a NRCC ad showing that Dr. Shrier, while calling for Medicare expansion to cover more individuals, doesn’t accept Medicaid patients in her own practice, which has cast her as a hypocrite. More data is needed to determine if this poll is an outlier or has staying power. The second finalist in the District 8 open seat campaign finds Democratic physician Kim Shrier holding onto a razor-thin 18.7 – 18.1% spread, a margin of approximately 1,200 votes, over Democrat Jason Rittereiser in the final tabulations for the August 7th jungle primary. The first place finisher, Republican Dino Rossi, tallied 43% of the original primary vote. Dr. Shrier will need to coalesce Democrats around her candidacy. The party candidates attracted an aggregate vote of just over 50% of the jungle primary voters now that all of the mail votes have finally been received and recorded.
The 8th District race promises to be hard fought, expensive, and close. Seven-term Rep. Dave Reichert (R-Auburn) is retiring. Voters in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, Washington, and Ohio’s 12th Congressional District (special general election) went to the polls yesterday to choose nominees, and the races detailed below are not yet officially called.
Republican state Sen. Troy Balderson (R-Zanesville) appears to have defeated Franklin County Recorder Danny O’Connor (D) in the central Ohio special congressional election by a scant 50.2% of the vote, meaning a 1,754 unofficial vote margin. Mr. Balderson will take the seat once the vote is officially certified. But, the two will again do battle in the general election as both won the Ohio regular primary back in May. The Kansas gubernatorial, 3rd Congressional District Democratic nomination, and the Washington 8th District second qualifying position are still undecided as counting continues. In Johnson County, Kansas, possibly as many as 26,000 votes remain uncounted, which will decide whether Gov. Jeff Colyer or Secretary of State Kris Kobach wins the Republican nomination. Though Gov. Colyer trails, the Johnson County tabulation looks to favor him, and provide enough of a margin to overcome his current 191-vote deficit. The eventual winner will face new Democratic nominee Laura Kelly, a Topeka state Senator, and credible Independent candidate Greg Orman in the general election. In the 3rd District, Democrat Sharice Davids, a former White House Fellow, looks to be increasing her lead over Bernie Sanders’ backed attorney Brent Welder as new votes are added to the tally. If the present trend holds, she will face four-term Rep. Kevin Yoder (R-Overland Park) in the general election. It will likely be at least a week before we know who advances into the general election against Republican Dino Rossi from Washington’s 8th District. Physician Kim Shrier (D) and attorney Jason Rittereiser (D) are locked in a tight battle for second place. In the jungle primary format, the top two finishers advance to the general election. Because Washington uses an all-mail voting system and allows ballots to be postmarked on Election Day, it can take many days to count all of the ballots. Regardless of the final primary result, this will be a close general election battle. Voters in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, Washington, and Ohio’s 12th Congressional District (special general election) go to the polls today to choose nominees. All host important House campaigns. Open Governors races are featured in Kansas and Michigan, and the Wolverine State Republicans will also choose an opponent for Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D). The Missouri Senate race is set, and Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) and Attorney General Josh Hawley (R) will both become official nominees today.
Central Ohio hosts a special House election that appears to be a close contest for what should be a Republican seat. State Sen. Troy Balderson (R-Zanesville) and Franklin County Recorder Danny O’Connor (D) are the two candidates. The winner takes office immediately to serve the remainder of resigned Rep. Pat Tiberi’s (R) final term in office. Mr. Tiberi resigned in late January to accept a major leadership position with an Ohio business advocacy organization. Public Policy Polling, surveying for the Northwest Progressive Institute (5/22-23; 675 WA likely voters), finds three-term Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) opening her 2018 re-election campaign in robust fashion. The results are hardly unexpected, however, since the tested Republican, former state GOP chair Susan Hutchison, surprisingly decided to enter the race just as candidate filing closed. According to the PPP results, the Senator’s early advantage is 52-36%.
--Jim Ellis Controversy has been reigning in the Washington state media about a Global Strategy Group poll (released in part on 4/12; 400 WA-8 likely jungle primary voters) that has been selectively released. The flap surrounds whether pediatrician Kim Schrier or attorney Jason Rittereiser is in second place. Under the Washington primary process, the top two candidates advance to the general election regardless of vote percentage or party affiliation. But, regardless of who is doing better among Democrats, the more important fact is that Republican former state Senator and gubernatorial nominee Dino Rossi begins the race with a commanding lead. According to the latest release from the GSG, the “uniformed”, or first ballot test question asked, finds Rossi garnering 48% support. Dr. Schrier is second with 14%, Mr. Rittereiser third at 6%, and a second physician, Shannon Hader (D), is third with 5 percent. The 8th District is a marginal Republican seat that Rep. Dave Reichert (R-Auburn) is vacating after seven terms.
Mr. Rossi lost the closest gubernatorial race ever in 2004, falling just 129 votes short of then-Attorney General Christine Gregoire (D) in a race that took weeks to determine and several recounts. --Jim Ellis Rep. Dave Reichert (R-Auburn) retiring from this marginal district makes the seat highly competitive next year. Over the weekend, state Senator Dino Rossi (R-Kirkland), a former gubernatorial and US Senate candidate announced he would seek the open congressional seat, giving Republicans their top recruitment prospect. Mr. Rossi first came to national notoriety in 2004, when he forced then-Attorney General Christie Gregoire (D) into a major re-count, consuming weeks, and ending in him losing the statewide contest by just 129 votes statewide. He returned to challenge then-Gov. Gregoire in 2008, resulting in a 53-47% loss. In a subsequent contest with Sen. Patty Murray (D), Mr. Rossi fell, but by a very respectable 52-48% against the veteran incumbent. In each case, the new Republican congressional candidate carried the 8th District.
Eight Democrats had previously announced for the seat, but only one had ever won an election, and that to a small local office. We can expect several elected Democratic officials to soon come forward to enter this race. King County Councilman Reagan Dunn (R), son of the late US Rep. Jennifer Dunn (R), was also considering running for the House seat but said he would yield to Mr. Rossi. Republicans uniting behind Rossi, which appears to be happening, will aid their ability to retain the open seat. --Jim Ellis Responding to Rep. Dave Reichert’s (R-Auburn) retirement announcement yesterday, two potentially strong GOP candidates confirm they are considering entering the new open seat race. Even before Mr. Reichert decided not to seek re-election, eight Democrats had already declared their candidacies. For the Republicans, all eyes are on former gubernatorial nominee and ex-state Sen. Dino Rossi and King County Councilman Reagan Dunn, son of the late former US Rep. Jennifer Dunn (R). It is reported that Mr. Dunn will not oppose Mr. Rossi should the former decide to run. This suggests the Republicans will have a consensus candidate. The new open race is considered a toss-up.
--Jim Ellis |
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