Retired Navy non-commissioned officer Tony Gonzales scored an apparent seven-vote victory on election night in the July 14th Republican runoff contest. With the official canvass now complete, Mr. Gonzales’ official margin increased to 45 votes. His opponent, homebuilder and retired Air Force officer Raul Reyes, is seeking a re-count. Eventually, one of these two men will face Democratic nominee Gina Ortiz Jones who has become the clear favorite to convert this seat to her party’s column. Republican Rep. Will Hurd (R-San Antonio) is retiring.
A new survey projects Ft. Bend County Sheriff Troy Nehl’s, fresh from a landslide Republican runoff election victory, in very strong general election position despite having virtually no money. According to a new Meeting Street Insights survey (7/19-22; 400 TX-22 registered voters), Sheriff Nehls would hold a 44-32% lead over 2018 Democratic nominee Sri Preston Kulkarni.
The 22nd is a traditionally Republican seat from which Rep. Pete Olson (R-Sugar Land) is retiring. Even though the southern Houston suburbs are changing demographically, and this is the most over-populated district in a state that should gain three seats in the new national reapportionment plan, the poll result finds Mr. Nehls with surprising political strength. Texas Rep. Roger Williams (R-Austin) is the latest incumbent to be shown in a close race. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee released an internal house survey from their DCCC Targeting & Analytics sector (7/21-22; 389 TX-25 likely voters) that found the Congressman leading Democratic nominee Julie Oliver, an attorney and political activist, only by a 45-43% count. It may be difficult for Oliver to capitalize on this, even if the poll is accurate. Mr. Williams, who is independently wealthy, is showing $1.268 million in his campaign account and can add a lot more, as compared to Ms. Oliver’s $90,000 in financial resources.
In what will likely become a national House campaign, Democratic pollster Garin-Hart-Yang Research conducted a survey of Texas’ 21st Congressional District, the seat that contains parts of San Antonio, Austin, and the Texas Hill Country, to determine how the race between freshman Rep. Chip Roy (R-Austin) and 2014 Texas gubernatorial nominee Wendy Davis (D) is progressing. With no surprise considering the nature of other current polling around the country, we see a toss-up race.
The GHY data finds Rep. Roy holding the slightest of leads, 46-45%, over Ms. Davis. This race will be extremely expensive, as Ms. Davis has already raised $4.4 million while Congressman Roy has attracted $2.6 million. The cash-on-hand figures are closer as Davis has $2.9 million in the bank as compared to Rep. Roy’s $1.7 million. These numbers are only for their personal campaigns and do not consider how much institutional advertising will be present to aid both candidates. Despite only leading by seven votes at the end of the unofficial tabulation, TX-23 candidate Tony Gonzales is surprisingly declaring victory even with such a tight margin. Mr. Gonzales placed first in yesterday’s runoff election with 12,346 votes as compared to GOP opponent Raul Reyes’ 12,339 tallies. It is not being reported how many absentee ballots are outstanding, but it is a reasonable assumption that not all of the cast ballots are yet counted. Additionally, with such a small margin separating the two, a re-count will be a virtual certainty.
The eventual winner faces 2018 Democratic nominee Gina Ortiz Jones who won the 2020 nomination outright on March 3rd. With the Republicans tied up for an even longer period before they have an unencumbered nominee, Ms. Jones looks to be the clear favorite for November in this swing district. Two years ago, she held incumbent Rep. Will Hurd (R-San Antonio) to only a 926 vote win. Former Dallas US Rep. Pete Sessions looks poised to return to Congress after winning the Republican nomination for the Waco/College Station 17th CD last night. The former Congressman re-located to his boyhood hometown of Waco after losing his Dallas County seat in 2018 to current Rep. Colin Allred (D). Mr. Sessions defeated healthcare executive Renee Swann who had retiring Rep. Bill Flores’ (R-Bryan) active endorsement, and now becomes the prohibitive favorite in the general election in what is a safe Republican seat.
In a race that will likely take weeks to untangle, retired Navy noncommissioned officer Tony Gonzales has a seven-vote lead over homebuilder Raul Reyes in the expansive 23rd Congressional District that stretches from San Antonio to El Paso. The eventual winner, after absentee ballots are added and an inevitable re-count begins, will face Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones in order to succeed retiring Rep. Will Hurd (R-San Antonio). With the Republicans likely tied up for an undetermined amount of time, Ms. Jones, already viewed as the favorite, gains even more of an advantage. Other significant runoff winners were 2018 Democratic nominee Mike Siegel (D-10th District; challenging GOP Rep. Michael McCaul), retired Navy Admiral and ex-White House physician Ronny Jackson (R-13th District open seat; becomes prohibitive favorite), Ft. Bend County Sheriff Troy Nehls (R-22nd District open seat; competitive general election against Democrat Sri Preston Kulkarni), and ex-School Board member Candace Valenzuela (D-24th District open seat; competitive general election opposite Republican Beth Van Duyne). Retired Army helicopter pilot M.J. Hegar, who lost the 31st Congressional District race to incumbent Rep. John Carter (R-Round Rock) in 2018, returned to capture the Democratic US Senate nomination last night with a 52-48% win over state Sen. Royce West (D-Dallas). Ms. Hegar ran strongly in west, central, and south Texas, while Sen. West ran up majorities in Dallas, Houston, and Ft. Worth, along with east Texas. Ms. Hegar now faces an uphill climb against three-term Sen. John Cornyn (R) in the November election.
Sen. John Cornyn’s (R) campaign took the unusual step on Friday of having their pollster release numbers for the opposing runoff campaign. According to Cornyn’s TargetPoint survey (7/8; 830 TX likely Democratic primary voters via automated response device), retired Army helicopter pilot M.J. Hegar is clinging to a 33-29% edge over state Sen. Royce West (D-Dallas). Among only the self-identified Democrats (Texas has no party registration), Ms. Hegar’s advantage expands to 40-33%. Yet, among the self-identified Democrats who said they have already voted, the two candidates were tied at 50-50%. Tomorrow’s run-off result promises to be close.
Retired Air Force Colonel and 2018 Texas Agriculture Commissioner Democratic nominee Kim Olson was viewed as the clear favorite to win her party’s nomination for the open DFW area 24th Congressional District. On the eve of the runoff, however, the outlook appears different. According to a Data for Progress survey conducted for BOLD PAC (7/2-7/7; 440 TX-24 likely Democratic runoff voters via telephone interview), former school board member Candace Valenzuela has surged into a big lead over Ms. Olson, 40-29%, and expanding to 53-37% when those leaning to each candidate are added.
Hispanic and progressive left groups have strongly backed Ms. Valenzuela who began the runoff as a severe underdog. In the primary, Ms. Olson finished ahead of her current opponent by a 41-30% spread. Tomorrow’s winner faces former Irving Mayor Beth Van Duyne (R) in the general election. Eight-term Rep. Kenny Marchant (R-Coppell) is retiring. A pair of Super PACs announced support in the way of media ads for local school board member Candace Valenzuela who is opposing retired Air Force officer and 2018 state Agriculture Commissioner nominee Beth Olson. The End Citizens United and Latino Victory Fund organizations are supporting Ms. Valenzuela, while VoteVets announced an endorsement for Ms. Olson.
Fundraising is nearly equal, too. Ms. Valenzuela says she will report over $465,000 raised for the 2nd quarter, while Ms. Olson will come in around $438,000. The July 14th Democratic runoff winner faces former Irving Mayor Beth Van Duyne, who won the Republican primary outright back in March. Rep. Kenny Marchant (R-Coppell) is retiring after serving what will be eight terms at the end of the current congressional session. |
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