Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, located in the northern part of the state, gave President Trump an extra electoral vote in 2016, and he needs it again. Maine and Nebraska are the two state’s that split their electoral votes meaning that even if a candidate loses the statewide count, he or she can gain an extra vote by taking a congressional district.
In mid-September, Quinnipiac University released a survey (9/10-14; 476 ME-2 likely voters; live interview, online combination) that found Joe Biden leading President Trump by a surprisingly large nine percentage points, 53-44%. Late last week, we saw the third poll to refute those numbers, this one by Maine’s own Colby College (9/17-23; 425 ME-2 likely voters; live interview) that found the two candidates falling to within three points of each other, 46-43%. This confirms the other two latter September polls from Siena College/New York Times and Suffolk University. They both found the Biden leads at two and one point, respectively. The second Maine survey conducted mostly during the period since the Supreme Court vacancy became a national issue was just released. The timing also includes the day when Sen. Susan Collins (R) made her statement that she would not support a vote before the election. Colby College surveyed (conducted by the SocialSphere firm; 9/17-23; ME-2 likely voters; live interview, online combination) the Pine Tree State and finds state House Speaker Sara Gideon (D-Freeport) leading the four-term incumbent, 45-41%. This is a better result for Ms. Gideon that the other post-vacancy poll, from Moore Information, that found the two candidates tied.
Maine employs the Ranked Choice Voting system for federal races. This means that some voters, i.e., those who vote for the candidate coming in last position, have their second choice counted. Colby College asked the second-choice question and found 46% of the respondents saying they had no alternative option. Among those who did, the voters broke evenly for the two major party candidates, with each gaining eight percentage points. Contrary to opinion that Maine Sen. Susan Collins (R) may have blown her re-election chances by immediately moving to postpone the vote on a successor to the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, a Moore Information survey for the National Republican Senatorial Committee (9/20-22; 500 ME likely voters) finds Sen. Collins and state House Speaker Sara Gideon (D-Freeport) tied in their latest poll. Ms. Gideon has been ahead in the race for months, but this survey finds both candidates drawing 42%, apiece. It remains to be seen if this rather surprising trend continues as the SCOTUS replacement process begins in earnest.
Yesterday we reported that Siena College/New York Times tested the 2nd District of Maine, the state’s northern seat, (9/11-16; 440 ME-2 likely voters; live interview) and sees the Biden advantage to be 47-45%, while the Global Strategy Group surveyed NE -2 (9/14-16; 400 NE-2 likely voters; live interview) found a 51-45% Biden advantage in that district. Now Suffolk University released their own Maine poll. The 2nd District portion (9/17-20; 233 ME-2 likely voters; live interview) also forecasts a 47-45% split, thus providing confirmation for the Siena College/NYT conclusion.
Maine and Nebraska are the two states that split their electoral votes, and the two districts that have a tendency to vote opposite their state and award an electoral vote to the losing statewide candidate. ME-2 and NE-2, show leads for former Vice President Joe Biden even though they are must win races for President Trump.
Siena College/New York Times tested the 2nd District of Maine, the state’s northern seat, (9/11-16; 440 ME-2 likely voters; live interview) and sees the Biden advantage to be 47-45%. The Democratic polling firm Global Strategy Group surveyed NE -2 (9/14-16; 400 NE-2 likely voters; live interview) and posts an even larger 51-45% Biden advantage in that district. These are places to watch as the general election unfolds. Maine Sen. Susan Collins (R) is one of three Republican Senators who says she won’t vote for a Supreme Court nominee to replace the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg before the election. This decision may prove costly as conservatives may abandon her re-election campaign for not supporting President Trump’s promised move to name a replacement. As a benchmark before the announcement, Siena College/New York Times released their Maine survey (9/11-16; 663 ME likely voters; live interview) that posted state House Speaker Sara Gideon (D) to a 44-40% lead over Sen. Collins.
The new Quinnipiac University poll (9/10-14; 1,183 ME likely voters; live interview) finds former Vice President Joe Biden posting a huge 21-point lead over President Trump, 59-38%. The data finds the President would even lose the 2nd Congressional District, which would provide him an important extra electoral vote. In ME-2, Mr. Trump would trail Mr. Biden, 53-44%. No other Maine survey has returned numbers as stark as these. Therefore, we can expect to see more polling being conducted here in order to confirm this trend or provide a different result.
The aforementioned Quinnipiac University survey (see Presidential section: Maine, above) also finds Sen. Susan Collins (R) badly trailing state House Speaker Sara Gideon (D-Freeport). The Q-Poll numbers reveal a 54-42% margin in Ms. Gideon’s favor, far beyond what has been recently published. As recently as the beginning of September in a Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research survey for AARP (8/30-9/5; 800 ME likely voters) the Gideon margin was only one point over Sen. Collins. In between the AARP poll and Quinnipiac, the Citizen Data organization (9/4-7; 600 ME likely voters) found the spread to be eight points, 49-41%.
On Friday, we covered the releasing of a LOC Wick Maine 2nd Congressional District late August survey that found freshman Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) leading former state Representative and businessman Dale Crafts (R), 50-44%. Now, we see a Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research joint poll conducted for AARP (8/30-9/5; 367 ME-2 likely voters) that gives Rep. Golden a much bigger lead, 44-32%, on the first ballot and 53-40% when leaners to each candidate are included.
In the presidential race, from a district that President Trump must win to give him an extra tally in a state that splits its electoral votes, former Vice President Joe Biden maintains a slight 49-45% edge. The LOC Wick polling organization conducted a 2nd Congressional District survey in late August of the race between freshman Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) and former state Representative and businessman Dale Crafts (R). The survey (8/25-28; released 9/8; 400 ME-2 likely voters) finds the freshman Congressman leading Mr. Crafts by a 50-44% vote split. This finding is consistent with other data, though ME-2 is not routinely polled.
This is the district that President Trump carried by ten percentage points in 2016 and he must do so again this year in order to gain an extra electoral vote that could critically affect the national vote count. Maine is one of two states, Nebraska being the other, that choose to split its electoral votes. The statewide winner is granted two electoral votes, while the victor in the 1st and 2nd congressional districts earns one national electoral vote each. |
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