Soon after announcing that she plans to run for President, Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-Kailua) has drawn a serious Democratic challenger for her congressional seat. State Sen. Kai Kahele (D-Hilo) announced that he will run for the 2nd District House seat whether or not Ms. Gabbard seeks re-election in 2020. Under Hawaii law, an individual can simultaneously run for President and another office.
Mr. Kahele was originally appointed to the state Senate when his father, veteran state legislator Gil Kahele, passed away. Kai Kahele then won the Democratic nomination later in 2016, and the general election in November of that year. This potential contest could well become a serious political challenge. In a CNN interview over the weekend, four-term Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-Kailua) said that she will formally announce her campaign for President this week. Ms. Gabbard was first elected to the House in 2012 after serving in the Hawaii state House of Representatives and on the Honolulu City Council. She did not seek re-election after one term in the legislature in order to serve in Iraq with her Hawaii National Guard unit.
Rep. Gabbard created controversy when she met with Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad in January of 2017. Michael Ahrens, a spokesman for the Republican National Committee, summed up the perception of Rep. Gabbard, saying “liberals think she’s too conservative, conservatives think she’s too liberal, and just about everyone thinks her coziness with Bashar al-Assad is disturbing.” Aloha State Gov. David Ige (D) appears poised to make an epic comeback in his Democratic primary battle with US Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D-Honolulu). Earlier in the cycle, Gov. Ige trailed by as much as 29 points with a support figure under 25%, but now the Merriman River Group (7/19-21; 871 HI likely Democratic primary voters) finds that he has eclipsed the polling deficit and more. According to the MRG results, as the two candidates trade political punches nearing the August 11th primary election date, Gov. Ige now leads the contest, 43-34%.
Four years ago, then-state Sen. Ige denied Gov. Neil Abercrombie re-nomination with a 66% Democratic primary victory. Earlier this year, it appeared that the tables might turn on the new incumbent. Now, however, the trends suggest that Mr. Ige is far from becoming a political casualty. Former Congressman Ed Case (D-HI-2) may be coming back. Mr. Case was first elected in a 2002 special election, but decided on an ill-fated Democratic primary challenge to Sen. Daniel Akaka in the 2006 Democratic primary instead of continuing his career in the House. Mr. Case has since attempted another run for the US Senate and entered a 2010 special congressional election for the 1st District. Before coming to Congress, he had lost a gubernatorial campaign.
Now a new Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy survey (7/6-11; 244 HI-1 likely Democratic primary voters) signals that Mr. Case may be returning to the winning track. According to the data, he leads the field of five Democratic opponents with 36%. Lt. Gov. Doug Chin is second with 27%, ahead of state Sen. Donna Mercado Kim (14%), and three others who fail to reach 10% support. The Hawaii primary is scheduled for August 11th. Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy released a new survey (7/6-11; 494 HI likely Democratic primary voters) that finds Gov. David Ige pulling ahead of his Democratic primary challenger, US Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D-Honolulu), for the first time. The new M-D numbers find Gov. Ige now ahead 44-40%. This is a significant finding because it was Mason-Dixon, in March, who found Ms. Hanabusa forging a commanding 47-27% advantage.
Four years ago, then-state Sen. Ige ousted Gov. Neil Abercrombie in the Democratic primary with a whopping 66% of the vote. Now, it appears that Mr. Ige may be in position to fall to a similar fate. He has been rebounding over the past couple of months, securing several key labor organizations support and doing well on the fundraising circuit. The race now looks to be a mad dash to the political finish line for the August 11th primary election. The eventual Democratic nominee will hold the Governor’s office in November. Gov. David Ige (D) has been trailing US Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D-Honolulu) in several Democratic gubernatorial primary polls, but he is getting a new boost from certain labor unions. Recently, the United Public Workers union and the Unite Here! union, which represents hospitality, food service, and healthcare workers, both endorsed Gov. Ige. The UPW is a member of the American Federation of State, County, and Municipal Employees Association, AFL-CIO. On the other hand, the Hawaii United Professional Assembly endorsed Rep. Hanabusa. The Hawaii primary is August 11th.
Democrat Ed Case represented Hawaii’s 2nd District for two terms, winning his first election in 2002 and leaving Congress at the beginning of 2007. He has since twice run for US Senate, once for Governor, and once in the most recent special election in the 1st District. As the candidate filing deadline expired on Tuesday, Mr. Case again has become a candidate. At the last minute, he filed for the open 1st Congressional District. He joins Lt. Gov. Doug Chin, state Sen. Donna Mercado Kim, state Reps. Beth Fukumoto, and Kaniela Ing, and Honolulu City Councilman Ernie Martin in the August 11th Democratic primary.
--Jim Ellis The Honolulu-anchored 1st Congressional District is again open as Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D-Honolulu) is once more engaged in a statewide Democratic primary challenge, this time opposite Gov. David Ige. The Merriman River Group, polling for the Honolulu Civil Beat online news and political newsletter, (5/3-5; 967 HI statewide registered voters; 321 HI-1 likely Democratic primary voters), finds state Senator and former congressional candidate Donna Mercado Kim leading the all-important Democratic primary, 26-19% over new Lt. Gov. Doug Chin. Party-switching state Rep. Beth Fukumoto (D-Mililani) is in third place with 11%. No other candidate reaches double-digits. The eventual Democratic nominee wins the seat in November. The Hawaii primary is August 11th.
--Jim Ellis An early May Merriman River Group survey was just released (5/3-5; 707 HI likely Democratic primary voters), and while this data still finds US Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D-Honolulu) leading incumbent Gov. David Ige (D) for the August 11th Democratic primary election, the margin is much closer. According to Merriman, Rep. Hanabusa’s lead is 37-31%. In March, a Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategies survey found her substantially outpacing the Governor, 47-27%. Back in 2014, then-state Sen. Ige blasted Gov. Neil Abercrombie (D) out of office with a 66-31% Democratic primary win. Rep. Hanabusa hopes to continue the Democratic voter streak of denying re-nomination to their incumbent Governors.
--Jim Ellis Current Gov. David Ige (D) made national political news in 2014 when he trounced incumbent Gov. Neil Abercrombie, 66-31% in the Democratic primary, but things have gone badly for him since that time. Last week we reported upon a new Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy survey that found US Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D-Honolulu) leading him for the August 11th Hawaii Democratic primary, 47-27%.
Now, a group of key Democratic state legislative leaders have jointly endorsed Rep. Hanabusa. State Senate President Ron Kouchi (D-Kauai), state House Speaker Scott Saiki (D-Honolulu), Senate Ways & Means Committee chairman Donovan Dela Cruz (D-Honolulu), and House Finance Committee chair Sylvia Luke (D-Makiki) all publicly agreed to join the Hanabusa campaign finance team. --Jim Ellis |
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