Fayetteville Democrat and former congressional candidate Josh Mahony is already an ex-Senate candidate. Mr. Mahony filed to challenge Sen. Tom Cotton (R) and was the only Democrat to do so. But, just hours after submitting his papers, Mr. Mahony announced he was withdrawing due to family issues. Before he exited, the Arkansas Republican Party filed an ethics complaint against Mr. Mahony, which may have played a role in his departure.
With no qualified Democratic candidate, the Arkansas Democratic Party members will convene and choose a replacement nominee. The Arkansas primary is March 3rd. The Arkansas candidate filing deadline expired on November 11th, and former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, as he did similarly at Alabama’s deadline, filed to enter the state’s presidential primary. This does not necessarily mean he will enter the race, but he is now eligible to qualify for a ballot position in the two states.
Several major entities have candidate filing deadlines in December, and Mr. Bloomberg’s actions surrounding these dates could give us a solid clue as to whether he will actually run. The states and their candidate filing deadlines are: Illinois, December 2; California, December 6; Texas, December 9; Ohio, December 11; and North Carolina, December 20. Together, these states, including Alabama and Arkansas, house a combined 1,128 first ballot delegates or more than a quarter of the aggregate first ballot allotment. If he is to enter the race and make a serious run, Mr. Bloomberg will realistically have to compete in all of these primaries. Therefore, if he fails to move in December, then any last-minute effort he might initiate should not be considered serious. As they usually do in the days preceding major elections, Hendrix College surveyed the Arkansas electorate. The only even quasi-competitive congressional campaign lies in the Little Rock anchored 2nd District. Here, state Rep. Clarke Tucker (D-Little Rock) is challenging two-term US Rep. French Hill (R-Little Rock).
Hendrix’s survey (10/17-18; 590 AR-2 likely voters) finds Rep. Hill holding a relatively strong 52-40% lead over Mr. Tucker, which tracks with the district’s voting history. Mr. Hill won his first two elections by eight and 21 points, respectively, in 2014 and 2016. The Talk Business & Politics group and the Hendrix College survey research arm again teamed up, as they have done before every recent election, to test the Arkansas electorate. The entities released surveys in all four of the state’s congressional districts, but the 2nd CD, anchored in Little Rock, is the only one that appears even somewhat competitive. According to the Hendrix data (9/5-7; 428 AR-2 likely voters), two-term Rep. French Hill (R-Little Rock) leads state Rep. Clarke Tucker (D-Little Rock), by a 50-41% count. Though Mr. Hill is comfortably ahead, Mr. Tucker’s level of support does suggest this seat is worth watching as the campaigns now begin to hit full stride.
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