Reports are swirling that freshman Rep. Jeff Van Drew (D-Dennis Township) is in the process of making plans to switch to the Republican Party after meeting with President Trump. Mr. Van Drew was one of two Democrats who opposed the impeachment inquiry and says he will not support the impeachment vote on the House floor.
Several Democrats were looking to launch a primary challenge to signal opposition to his impeachment stand, but now the 2nd District 2020 campaign could look very different if Mr. Van Drew becomes a Republican. The Congressman, formerly a veteran state legislator, captured 53% of the vote in converting this seat to the Democrats in 2018 for the first time since 1992. President Trump carried the Atlantic City anchored district with a 51-46% spread. Conservative businesswoman Marjorie Greene, who is an announced candidate in the 6th Congressional District that freshman Rep. Lucy McBath (D-Marietta) holds, is now switching to the open northwest Georgia 14th District from which Rep. Tom Graves (R-Ranger/Rome) is retiring. The 14th will feature a determinative Republican primary with a run-off battle to assuredly follow.
The Atlanta suburban 6th District now finds former Rep. Karen Handel unopposed for the Republican nomination, meaning we will likely see a re-match between Rep. McBath and Ms. Handel. In 2018, Ms. McBath unseated then-Rep. Handel, 50.5 – 49.5%, a margin of 3,264 votes from over 317,000 cast ballots. Things could still change, however. The Georgia candidate filing deadline is March 6th for the May 19th state primary. If no candidate receives 50% in the first partisan vote, the top two finishers advance to a run-off election on July 21st. Regardless of the general election participants, the 6th District will be a top national political target. Change Research (12/6-11; 998 SC likely voters) returns a new South Carolina Senate poll that can be considered, at face value, to be an anomaly. The data shows Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) topping former South Carolina Democratic Party chairman Jaime Harrison (D), 47-45%, far different than the other publicly released surveys from earlier in the year.
In October, for example, Benchmark Research found Graham’s advantage hovering in the 53-30% range. The only other previous survey not to find Graham with a substantial lead was again Change Research, back in September, when they posted the Senator to a 50-43% split. Sen. Graham will be receiving a great deal of media attention once the impeachment proceedings reach the Senate, since he will be one of the leading defenders for the President. Therefore, the South Carolina Senate campaign, despite being conducted in a safely Republican state, can be expected to attract more attention and resources as a result of what is sure to be Sen. Graham’s polarizing role in the impeachment proceedings. Marquette Law School released its latest Wisconsin state poll on Friday (12/3-8; 800 WI registered voters), and the results basically confirm the Firehouse Strategies/Optimus surveys conducted within the same time frame. For Wisconsin, the Firehouse data projected President Trump to be leading all five of the top tier Democratic candidates.
Marquette’s result finds only former Vice President Joe Biden forging ahead of Mr. Trump in the Badger State, and then by only a single percentage point. The poll further finds the President leading all others by similar margins. Wisconsin can be viewed as one of the major barometer states for the coming campaign. Therefore, the research firms will be closely monitoring the candidates’ progress here throughout the election cycle. More released survey research projects that the California Democratic primary, slated for Super Tuesday March 3rd, is evolving into a contest where four candidates will receive votes from the large 416 first ballot delegate contingent. A new Capitol Weekly study (12/3-7; 599 CA likely Democratic primary voters) sees Sen. Elizabeth Warren leading the pack with 23% support, as Sen. Bernie Sanders and former Vice President Joe Biden follow with 19% apiece. South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg places fourth with 14%.
If this were the final vote, and assuming that Buttigieg reaches 15%, the delegate apportionment would give Sen. Warren approximately 126 first ballot delegate votes, Sanders and Biden would each earn 104, and Buttigieg would be awarded 82 votes. One of the more difficult Senate seats Republicans will have to protect in 2022 lies in Pennsylvania. Now, there is a chance the race may be open. Incumbent Sen. Pat Toomey (R) confirmed yesterday that he is considering entering the open Governor’s race in the next election cycle when incumbent Democrat Tom Wolf will be ineligible to seek re-election.
Clearly, Sen. Toomey is the Republicans’ strongest statewide candidate, but for which office he runs may now be open to conjecture. Already, we have a general election pairing in California. In 2018, Democrat T.J. Cox upset then-Rep. David Valadao (R) by a scant 826-vote margin and now the men will square off again next year. No other candidate filed this week, so only the two of them will appear on the March 3rd jungle primary ballot. Regardless of how the duo finishes in the qualifying election, both will advance to the general under California’s primary election law.
Former Tulare County Democratic Party chairman Ruben Macareno announced that he would enter the race as a NPP candidate (No Party Preference), but he did not file as the deadline passed. Thus, we see the unusual one-on-one pairing for both the jungle primary and the general election. Another close contest is expected in this rural district that stretches from Fresno to Bakersfield. The Democratic National Committee leadership just announced that four presidential debates will be conducted between January 1st and March 1st. The forums will occur before voting begins in each of the four places hosting February nominating events.
The first 2020 debate will be held at Drake University in Des Moines, IA on January 14th prior to the February 3rd Iowa Caucus vote. The next will emanate from Manchester, NH on February 7th, just before the first-in-the-nation primary on February 11th. Las Vegas will host the third 2020 debate on Feb. 19th before the February 22nd Nevada Caucus, and the final pre-Super Tuesday session will come from Charleston, SC on Feb. 25th prior to the Saturday South Carolina primary (February 29th). Candidate qualification requirements have not been announced. A new Change Research survey of the South Carolina Democratic electorate (12/6-11; 392 SC likely Democratic primary voters) for the first time projects a tightening of the state’s ballot test. While former Vice President Joe Biden continues to lead here, as he has since the campaign began, this new data forecasts his edge narrowing to 27-20-19-9% over Sens. Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and Mayor Pete Buttigieg. The margin now resembles the type of spreads we are seeing in national research studies.
South Carolina, the fourth voting state that will host a primary contest on February 29th, has 54 first ballot delegates. According to this survey, it appears that three of the candidates, Mr. Biden and Sens. Sanders and Warren, would each receive delegate votes for surpassing the 15% threshold. Yesterday, we reported that former Attorney General and ex-Alabama US Senator Jeff Sessions (R) just released data from his internal OnMessage survey (12/3-5; 700 AL likely Republican primary voters; live interview) that placed him ahead of former Auburn University head football coach Tommy Tuberville by a 44-21% margin. Now, we see a Cherry Communications survey released (12/1-3; 600 AL likely Republican primary voters) that, while also finding Sessions and Tuberville advancing to an April 14th run-off from the March 3rd primary, projects a tight spread between the two contenders. Cherry finds Sessions’ advantage to only be 35-31%.
Both polls place the other candidates, US Rep. Bradley Byrne (R-Mobile), former state Supreme Court Chief Judge Roy Moore, and state Rep. Arnold Mooney (R-Shelby County), to be significantly trailing. |
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