Not yet even sworn into the House of Representatives, incoming Massachusetts freshman Rep. Jake Auchincloss (D-Newton) has already drawn a re-election opponent. Former Attleboro City Councilmember Julie Hall (R), who recorded just over 39% in the 2020 general election, announced that she will seek a re-match in 2022. Mr. Auchincloss’ more serious potential opponent, however, could come in the form of a Democratic primary challenge in September of 2021.
Just days after New York Rep. Max Rose (D-Staten Island) conceded re-election defeat to state Assemblywoman Nicole Malliotakis (R), it appears he is already testing the waters for another political run. Reports are surfacing that Rep. Rose may be looking to enter the open New York City Mayor’s race next year. Incumbent Bill de Blasio (D), who was a focal point of negative attacks during the congressional campaign, is ineligible to seek a third term. Therefore, interest is growing among Democrats looking to run for the position.
Announcing his candidacy yesterday was Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams. Other Democrats already in the race is former US Housing & Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan, NYC Comptroller Scott Stringer, and NYC Councilman Carlos Menchaca. Betting that the new North Carolina congressional seat will be drawn in western Wake County, state Sen. Wiley Nickel (D-Raleigh) yesterday declared himself a candidate when the state receives a new 14th District upon the national apportionment formula announcement in January. It is a certainty that the state will receive one more seat, but where that district will be placed is far from decided.
The two California races in Districts 21 and 25 remain outstanding with mail votes still being counted. There was progress in both razor-thin contests, yesterday. In the 21st District, Rep. T.J. Cox (D-Fresno) continues to trail former Rep. David Valadao (R), but the margin separating the two is down to 1,805 votes. In the race between Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Santa Clarita) and state Assemblywoman Christy Smith (D-Newhall), the latest totals increase Rep. Garcia’s small 104-vote lead to 422 votes.
According to the Secretary of State’s office, 440,372 ballots remain to be counted throughout California. Attempting to estimate what may be remaining in Districts 21 and 25, it appears there could be as many as 14,000 ballots still uncounted in the Cox-Valadao race and approximately 6,000 in the Garcia-Smith contest. Yesterday, Louisiana Rep. Cedric Richmond (D-New Orleans) announced that he would resign his seat in the House to accept a position in the Biden Administration. The Congressman is slated to become a senior advisor to the President and the Director of the Office of Public Engagement. This means we will see a special election held in the LA-2 district. Since the seat is heavily Democratic, we can expect a double-Democratic runoff election after a jungle primary is scheduled and held.
Another of the New York outstanding seats has finally been decided. Despite challenger George Santos (R) leading in the counting until the very end when fortunes flipped, Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-Glen Cove) has scored his second re-election victory in his south-central Long Island congressional seat. Though counting is not yet complete, Mr. Santos conceded the race after falling behind by more than 20,000 votes. Mr. Suozzi was first elected in 2016 after former Rep. Steve Israel (D-Huntington) decided to retire.
With almost all of the votes now counted, a change has occurred among the Alaska ballot propositions and this will drastically affect future elections. By a margin of 50.5 – 49.5%, voters have adopted a measure to become the first state in the Union to hold a “top four primary,” after it appeared the proposition was headed for defeat. The new process will create a jungle primary with all participants on the same ballot regardless of party affiliation. Instead of just two finalists advancing to the general election, four will. In the general, Ranked Choice Voting will then be in effect, meaning a winner will be declared with majority support.
Analysts believe the change will be a short-term boon to Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) when remembering she lost the 2010 partisan Republican primary. She then won re-election that year via the write-in process. Sen. Murkowski is expected to seek re-election, and the primary could have presented her with another competitive challenge. This system, however, will guarantee that she will easily advance into the general election. A day before the 4th District results are scheduled to be certified as official, freshman Rep. Ben McAdams (D-Salt Lake City) conceded defeat to challenger Burgess Owens (R), a retired NFL football player and Salt Lake City businessman. Provisional vote counting ended on Saturday, pushing Mr. Owens’ margin over the Congressman to 2,139 votes, which was enough for Mr. McAdams to make his public statement.
Already turning to the 2022 election cycle, Sen. Roy Blunt’s (R) campaign spokespeople are confirming that the Senator will seek a third term in two years. At this point, no Democrat is emerging. In 2016, then-Secretary of State Jason Kander (D) held Sen. Blunt to a 49-46% victory. Well after the campaign, however, Mr. Kander underwent treatment for PTSD and individuals close to him are quoted as saying that he will not seek a rematch in 2020.
The only Missouri Democratic statewide elected official, State Auditor Nicole Galloway, just lost the Governor’s race to incumbent Mike Parson (R). Her current position is on the ballot in 2022, so there is yet no indication that she is contemplating challenging Sen. Blunt. There are only two Democratic US House members from the state, and the GOP controls both houses of the legislature. Therefore, it is likely that the Democratic leadership will recruit someone from outside of elected office as their Senate candidate in 2022. The Republicans have now gained a net of 9 seats in the House with five races remaining uncalled. In the five outstanding contests, Republicans lead in four.
One of them, in Iowa, has been certified as a 47-vote win for state Sen. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Ottumwa), but Democratic nominee Rita Hart has requested a recount in all 24 of the 2nd District’s counties, which began yesterday. Republicans, including Rep. Mike Garcia (R-CA), hold tenuous leads in the two remaining California races. Former Rep. Claudia Tenney (R-NY) looks poised to re-claim New York’s 22nd District, and Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-NJ) continues to lead as final counting winds down in his New Jersey re-election race. Another race will be decided in a Louisiana December 5th runoff election. There, former congressional aide Luke Letlow and state Rep. Lance Harris (R-Alexandria) will advance to a secondary vote. Since both are Republicans, the GOP is assured of holding the open seat regardless of the outcome. |
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