Saying that, “…the outdated structures and old rules, the everyday oppressions and injustices that hold our people back,” Rep. Joseph P. Kennedy III (D-Newton) officially announced his Senatorial candidacy for Democratic nomination, meaning a direct challenge to Sen. Ed Markey. The move sets up a year-long campaign, as the Massachusetts state primary won’t be held until September 15, 2020. Sen. Markey responded quickly, announcing an endorsement from Rep. Alexandria Ocascio-Cortez (D-NY) and challenging Kennedy and his two other opponents to a climate change debate in the “near future.”
Mr. Kennedy’s move means the 4th Congressional District will be open and leaves what will be a highly competitive Democratic primary in his wake. There are now 21 open seats for the 2020 election cycle, just five of which the majority Democrats hold. Last week Temecula City Councilman Matt Rahn (R) decided not to pursue his candidacy against indicted Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-Alpine) because of too much political uncertainty. Now, state Sen. Brian Jones (R-Santee) announced that he, too, will join the crowded race, and he promises to be a serious competitor since his state Senate district, which is larger than the congressional seat, encompasses 81% of the CD’s constituency.
Also contemplating entering the race is former 49th District Congressman Darrell Issa. In the contest are ex-San Diego City Councilman and congressional candidate Carl DeMaio, former Escondido Mayor Sam Abed (R), El Cajon Mayor Bill Wells (R), and retired Navy SEAL Larry Wilske (R). The lone Democratic candidate is 2018 nominee Ammar Campa-Najjar who recorded a 48.3% performance against Mr. Hunter last November. Last week, national construction company CEO Denise Burgess announced her candidacy for the Democratic nomination, showing no fear to line up opposite former Gov. John Hickenlooper and eleven others. Already, however, she has ended her campaign. A news story revealing that she has liens against her for unpaid taxes is the factor that has prematurely driven her from the campaign. Mr. Hickenlooper is the clear favorite for the party nomination and we can expect him to be Sen. Cory Gardner’s (R) general election opponent.
A new Iowa poll was released over the weekend, from Selzer & Company and the Des Moines Register newspaper (9/14-18; 602 IA likely Democratic Caucus attenders), and both segments find Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) moving past former Vice President Joe Biden.
This survey employs a different methodology in that they are combining the numbers for those who mentioned each candidate as their first or second choice. Under the first choice response, Sen. Warren posts a 22-20-11-9-6% advantage over Mr. Biden, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Mayor Pete Buttigieg, and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA), respectively. Combining first and second choice responses, the division expands to 42-30-21-18-16% with the candidates finishing in the same order. Joining fellow New York politician Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D), New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio has now officially ended his presidential quest for the Democratic nomination, though he never became a significant factor. Ironically, the only New Yorker left in the race on the Dem side is start-up entrepreneur and candidate Andrew Yang who is now beginning to post small single digit numbers in national polls.
Regardless of what transpires among the minor candidates the true race appears to be limited to the top three contenders, former Vice President Joe Biden, and Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Bernie Sanders (I-VT). The Associated Press is running with a story that indicates Rep. Joseph P. Kennedy III (D-Newton) will announce his Senatorial campaign Democratic primary challenge to Sen. Ed Markey tomorrow. There has been much speculation about such an impending race, and now the predicted move looks to have legs. Rep. Kennedy recently said he would decide in a few weeks, but apparently the timetable has accelerated. Sen. Markey, who has been in Congress since 1977, shows no signs of retiring. This campaign has a long election cycle. The Massachusetts state primary is not until September 15, 2020.
Freshman Rep. Lucy McBath (D-Marietta), who upset then-Rep. Karen Handel (R-Roswell) in the 6th District 2018 general election, said she will not enter the special US Senate election after Sen. Johnny Isakson (R) resigns and a replacement is appointed. Instead, Ms. McBath says she is committed to her job in the House and will seek re-election. There is a good possibility of a re-match occurring here. Ms. Handel has already announced her intentions to run again, though she will face Republican primary opposition.
Recent polling has shown Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) nearing the 50% mark for the October 12th gubernatorial election. Obtaining majority support in a jungle primary format means a candidate is elected outright. But Baton Rouge-based JMC Analytics, a frequent Louisiana pollster, sees the Governor in a tighter race than other research firms. According to the JMC data (9/14-17; 600 LA likely voters), Mr. Edwards secures only 41% support as compared to Rep. Ralph Abraham’s (R-Alto/Monroe) 24%, and developer Eddie Rispone who posts 16 percent.
Though Edwards still has a healthy lead and will undoubtedly finish first in the primary election, the big question remains as to whether he can reach the majority mark. If he does not, and this JMC survey would project he falls short, then the Governor could face trouble in a one-on-one match with a Republican, most likely Rep. Abraham, in the November 16th run-off election. The new Change Research survey conducted for San Francisco radio station KQED (9/12-15; 3,325 CA likely Democratic primary voters; online) sees a very close presidential nomination race developing for the large 416-delegate prize, with home state Sen. Kamala Harris left out of the upper echelon.
The Change data finds Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Bernie Sanders (I-VT) in a virtual tie (Warren 25; Sanders 23), and former Vice President Joe Biden trailing with 18% support. Sen. Harris records an 11% preference score, an improvement from the recent Emerson College poll that found her dropping all the way to 5% but still far behind, while South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg registers 10 percent. If this poll were the basis for delegate apportionment, Sen. Warren would gain approximately 158 delegates and Sen. Sanders would claim 145 first ballot votes, while Mr. Biden would get 113. A rare Florida presidential primary poll was released yesterday from Florida Atlantic University (9/12-15; 407 FL likely Democratic primary voters) and while former Vice President Joe Biden has an advantage beyond the polling margin of error, the seeds are planted for a tight three-way contest.
The results find Mr. Biden leading with 34%, while Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Bernie Sanders (I-VT) are tied at 24% apiece. Way back are South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 6%, California Sen. Kamala Harris pulling only 4%, Miramar, FL Mayor Wayne Messam finally getting on a polling board at 3%, and ex-Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-TX) and businessman Andrew Yang attracting 2% apiece. Under this configuration, Mr. Biden would capture approximately 91 delegates as compared to Sens. Warren and Sanders clinching 64 first ballot delegate votes apiece. |
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