The Daily Kos Elections blog is covering a Medium Buying company Twitter message that identifies the size of the Kansas Senate Republican candidates’ final week media buy just prior to the August 4th primary. The figures do not include outside organization spending, which is likely to be higher than the candidates’ themselves are spending.
According to Medium Buying, plumbing company owner Bob Hamilton leads the way in the final week with reserved media time totaling $284,000, largely self-funded. The ads will again likely feature Mr. Hamilton’s wife who has proved herself a compelling and humorous figure in previously aired spots. Former gubernatorial nominee Kris Kobach, who has been the focal point of most of the outside advertising, has only $33,000 in media time reserved, the least among the candidates. Even Turnpike Authority chairman and former Kansas City Chiefs football player Dave Lindstrom, a minor tier candidate, is spending $2,000 more than Kobach. Rep. Roger Marshall (R-Great Bend), a top contender, has $47,000 worth of time reserved. Maine’s Colby College is out with their second poll of this year (7/18-24; 888 ME voters of which 89% describe themselves as definitely casting their ballot in November; combination of live and online interviews) finds state House Speaker Sara Gideon topping Sen. Susan Collins (R), 44-39%.
In actuality, the split is probably closer. The poll skews a bit liberal, and the sample size favors the 1st District, which is the more Democratic of the state’s two CDs. Even though Sen. Collins’ favorability is still upside down (41:52% favorable to unfavorable), the ratio is an improvement from Colby’s February poll, yet the ballot test leans more to Gideon. In February, Ms. Gideon led only 43-42%. An ALG Research poll conducted for Democrat Jaime Harrison’s US Senate campaign (7/15-20; 591 SC likely voters) finds incumbent Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) leading Mr. Harrison, the former state chairman of the South Carolina Democratic Party, 49-45%, with leaners included for both men. Both have raised huge campaign war chests through June 30th. Sen. Graham has pulled in over $31 million cycle-to-date as compared to Mr. Harrison’s strong effort that has so far yielded a whopping $29 million in challenger campaign contributions. Sen. Graham has a substantial lead in cash-on-hand, however, $15 million to $10 million.
Colby College (see Maine Senate above) also tested the 2nd Congressional District race now that former state Rep. Dale Crafts has officially won the Republican nomination. The 2nd District sample size, taken over the July 18-24 period is approximately 426 respondents via a combination of live and online interviews. The ballot test yields freshman Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) a 45-33% general election advantage. In February’s Colby College poll, Rep. Golden led a generic Republican, 43-29%.
Survey USA, polling for KING-TV in Seattle, released a study for the upcoming August 4th Washington jungle primary (7/22-27; 513 WA likely primary voters) that finds Gov. Jay Inslee (D), running for a third term after withdrawing from the presidential race, holding a very comfortable lead. According to S-USA, he would capture 55% of the vote. His next closest rival is local police chief Loren Culp (R) who has only 9% support. Businessman Tim Eyman (R) is close behind Culp with 8%, while all others post 6% or less; therefore, Gov. Inslee is a lock for re-election in November.
In the open Lt. Governor’s race, retiring US Rep. Denny Heck (R-Olympia) has opened a significant lead according to S-USA. He scores 34% preference, while businessman Joseph Brumbles (R) and state Senate Majority Floor Leader Marko Liias (D-Edmonds) battle for the second general election position. The latter two men are tied with 14% in the S-USA poll. A Meeting Street Insights survey (7/14-18; 400 FL-26 registered voters) was just released and the data produced an unexpected result. According to Meeting Street, Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Gimenez (R) has a taken a 47-42% lead over freshman Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-Miami) in a seat that flipped from Republican to Democrat in the last election. The race is expected to be close, and a survey such as this is likely to better position Mr. Gimenez on the Republican national target list.
Veteran Missouri Rep. Lacy Clay (D-St. Louis) has launched a personal media attack ad on his Democratic primary opponent, civil rights activist and pastor Cori Bush. The move is an interesting one in that Mr. Clay defeated Ms. Bush, 57-37% in the 2018 Democratic primary, and has a significant fundraising and cash-on-hand edge. With just $127,000 left in her campaign account as reported, it is doubtful that she can launch the type of final week effort to dislodge a ten-term incumbent whose father preceded him in the House with his own 32 year congressional career.
These factors, however, have not stopped Clay in claiming in the ad that Ms. Bush doesn’t really even have a church though she maintains that her occupation is that of a pastor. Texas Rep. Roger Williams (R-Austin) is the latest incumbent to be shown in a close race. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee released an internal house survey from their DCCC Targeting & Analytics sector (7/21-22; 389 TX-25 likely voters) that found the Congressman leading Democratic nominee Julie Oliver, an attorney and political activist, only by a 45-43% count. It may be difficult for Oliver to capitalize on this, even if the poll is accurate. Mr. Williams, who is independently wealthy, is showing $1.268 million in his campaign account and can add a lot more, as compared to Ms. Oliver’s $90,000 in financial resources.
A new wave of ads from an independent expenditure PAC entitled the Keep Kansas Great PAC, which is aligned with Rep. Roger Marshall (R-Great Bend), identifies the Democrats as the funding source of PAC ads that are promoting former Secretary of State Kris Kobach.
The retaliatory pro-Marshall ads take aim at the Democratic leadership by claiming they are “afraid to run against the real conservative, Roger Marshall.” With charges and countercharges coming from both sides about individual candidates and others promoting contenders who they are not really for, brings to mind the old saying, “you can’t tell the players without a scorecard.” The Kansas Republican primary is August 4th, and the result will be interesting no matter how it turns out. In what could be a major development, Sen. Ed Markey (D-MA) has captured another key endorsement. The Massachusetts Teachers Association announced yesterday they will actively support the veteran lawmaker in his bid for re-nomination against Rep. Joe Kennedy III (D-Newton).
Prior to this, several key environmental groups, acknowledging the Senator’s long leadership role on the climate change issue, had endorsed Sen. Markey and launched a major independent expenditure on his behalf. The Massachusetts primary is September 1st. |
The Rundown BlogLearn more about the candidates running in key elections across the United States. Archives
April 2024
Categories
All
|
|
BIPAC© 2022 BIPAC. All rights reserved
|