The Morning Consult organization published its new quarterly approval indexes for the nation’s 50 Governors, and the top eleven with the most positive ratings (from 73% to 54%) are all Republicans. The most positively rated Democrat, also with 54% approval, is Delaware’s John Carney.
As has been the case for quite some time, Govs. Charlie Baker (R-MA) and Larry Hogan (R-MD) continue to record the highest gubernatorial positive ratings at 73 and 71%, respectively. New Englanders appear pleased with their Governors because three of the five best rated state chief executives are located among the six New England states. In addition to Gov. Baker, New Hampshire’s Chris Sununu (64% positive) and Vermont’s Phil Scott (59% favorable) land in the top five. But, the news is not all good, and especially so for Kentucky Gov. Matt Bevin (R), who faces a tough re-election campaign this year. His 33:52% favorable to unfavorable ratio is the worst in the nation. Not far behind is Connecticut newcomer Ned Lamont (D), who posts a 33:38% positive to negative ratio. Rhode Island’s Gina Raimondo (D) and Oregon’s Kate Brown (D) are the other two where the negative rating exceeds the positive. New York Democratic state party chairman Jay Jacobs, in consultation with Republican state party chairman Ed Cox, announced that the New York presidential primary will be held on April 28, 2020. Strategically, the Democratic leaders wanted their state to have more influence over the presidential campaign, so they chose the April date instead of waiting for the regular election New York primary, which is likely to be scheduled less than 60 days later on June 23rd.
The New York delegation will consist of 224 first ballot voting eligible delegates, making it the largest state to vote after March 17th. Overall, New York will send the third largest delegation to the Democratic National Convention, behind only California (416 first ballot delegates) and Texas (228). On the eve of former Vice President Joe Biden’s official presidential campaign video announcement, the new national Ipsos-Reuters poll (4/17-23; 4,018 adults; 1,449 self-identified Democrats and 788 self-identified Independents from an online panel) brings him good news. According to the results, Mr. Biden has re-established a significant lead, topping Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) 24-15%, with South Bend (IN) Mayor Pete Buttigieg placing third at 7% support. Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) and former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-TX) follow closely with each registering 6% preference.
The poll does not deeply segment, failing to even identify registered voters, let alone likely primary participants. Furthermore, the addition of Independents, who may or may not be eligible to vote in various Democratic primaries, also potentially skew the final totals though Mr. Biden does perform better within the Democratic segment than he does among tested Independents. As expected, Rep. Ben Ray Lujan (D-Nambe/Santa Fe) is not going to have a free ride to the open Democratic US Senate nomination despite him already scoring major endorsements such as the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
Yesterday, New Mexico Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver (D) announced that she will run for the party nomination in hopes of succeeding retiring Sen. Tom Udall (D). In November, Ms. Oliver was re-elected to a four-year term with a 58-37% margin. Therefore, she will not have to risk her current position to run for the Senate. Rep. Lujan is favored for the nomination and the general election. So far, the only Republican to declare for the race is Gavin Clarkson, the college professor who Ms. Oliver defeated in November. Businessman and former Notre Dame football player Ted Gradel joined the forming 14th District Republican candidate field to challenge freshman Rep. Lauren Underwood (D-Naperville). The new Congresswoman defeated Rep. Randy Hultgren (R) in 2018 to convert this long-held GOP seat to the Democratic column.
Mr. Gradel, who featured former Notre Dame head coach and college football commentator Lou Holtz in his announcement video, joins state Senator and frequent candidate Jim Oberweis, software company executive Matt Quigley, human resources corporate executive Danny Malouf, and Army veteran Anthony Catella in the GOP field of candidates. The voting history here suggests that this will be battleground campaign next year. Five-term Rep. Mike Kelly (R-Butler), who won re-election with a competitive 52-47% victory margin over Democrat Ron DiNicola, has drawn at least one new opponent next year. Yesterday, former state Representative candidate Daniel Smith (D) announced that he would challenge Rep. Kelly. No word as yet whether Mr. DiNicola will attempt to seek a re-match.
State Senate President Del Marsh (R-Anniston) said yesterday that he will not enter the contested 2020 Senate Republican primary for the chance of opposing Sen. Doug Jones (D). As has been the case in several other statewide races, Sen. Marsh sends out signals that he may run only to back away well before the candidate filing deadline.
Currently in the GOP race are Rep. Bradley Byrne (R-Mobile), state Auditor Jim Zeigler, and former University of Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville, along with two minor candidates. Converting the Alabama Senate seat is critical to boost Republicans’ odds of holding their Senate majority. Former Army helicopter pilot M.J. Hegar (D), who held veteran Rep. John Carter (R-Round Rock) to a 51-48% re-election victory in November will now challenge Sen. John Cornyn (R). The move could also signal that Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-San Antonio), who was sounding like a Senate candidate earlier in the year, will not.
Ms. Hegar became a national congressional candidate after releasing her bio video that went viral, attracting more than 3 million viewers. She raised $5.12 million for the congressional campaign and should be able to attract large sums for the Senate race. Earlier, when speculation was rampant that Rep. Castro would run, Ms. Hegar said his presence in the Democratic primary would not dissuade her from launching her own effort. Looking at the first quarter financial reports, Rep. Castro reports less than $88,000 in his campaign account, which is another indication that he is not constructing a statewide campaign in such an expensive state. Sen. Cornyn is certainly favored for re-election, especially since he was the top incumbent fundraiser in the first quarter with $7.8 million raised, but Ms. Hegar will provide credible competition. State Assemblyman Michael Blake (D-Bronx), a former Obama White House aide, filed a congressional committee with the Federal Election Committee, which is the first step toward becoming an official candidate. If he moves forward, he will join New York City Councilmen Ritchie Torres and Ruben Diaz, Sr. as candidates, along with Bronx River Community Center Director Tomas Ramos, financial advisor Chivona Renee Newsome, and non-profit organization executive Jonathan Ortiz in the Democratic primary.
Since NY-15 is literally the safest Democratic seat in the nation – President Trump received 4.9% of the vote here in 2016 - the eventual party nominee will be a lock to replace retiring Rep. Jose Serrano (D-Bronx) in November. It appears the long-anticipated presidential campaign announcement from former Vice President and ex-Delaware Senator Joe Biden will take place tomorrow. Though Mr. Biden is normally found atop the national polling statistics, his edge has tightened during the past few weeks and he now generally lapses into a tie with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), drops a point or two behind, or clings to an equally tight lead.
Some believe that his announcement day may be Mr. Biden’s 2020 campaign highpoint. Opponents are ready to launch attacks against his long record in the Senate, so we can anticipate a very active period of months as the 20 candidates seriously begin to prepare for the Iowa Caucus on February 3rd. |
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