Former US Interior Secretary and Colorado Senator Ken Salazar (D) confirmed two weeks ago that he was considering entering the Governor’s race. Yesterday, he announced that he will not enter the open race contest. This likely leaves the door open for US Rep. Ed Perlmutter (D-Golden), who has been openly considering the Governor’s contest. Little action so far has occurred on the Republican side with former state Rep. Victor Mitchell being the most prominent individual to announce his candidacy. Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.
Up until yesterday, US Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D-Albuquerque) had been the lone announced Democratic candidate for the open 2018 Governor’s race. That changed when state Sen. Joe Cervantes (D), who has the ability to self-fund a statewide campaign, indicated that he will soon announce his own gubernatorial candidacy. No Republicans have yet announced a bid to succeed term-limited Gov. Susana Martinez (R), but Lt. Gov. John Sanchez, US Rep. Steve Pearce (R-Hobbs), and Albuquerque Mayor Richard Berry are all potential statewide candidates.
Two more polls were released this week pairing Sen. Bill Nelson (D) with Gov. Rick Scott (R). The polling interest here is more than pure speculation. Sen. Nelson has said repeatedly that he is running for re-election, and Gov. Scott is openly contemplating challenging him. The polling results, both in terms of consistency and margin spread, should encourage Gov. Scott. The surveys released this week, from Cherry Communications for the Florida Chamber of Commerce (3/6-14; 600 FL registered voters) and St. Leo University (3/3-11; 507 adults selected by random formula) again find five and six point spreads between the two potential opponents, and both show Sen. Nelson below 50% support. Two previous polls revealed the same pattern. The Chamber poll finds Nelson’s lead to be 48-42%, with St. Leo posting a 39-34% split.
Former US Senate nominee Sharron Angle (R), who lost a close 2010 campaign to then Majority Leader Harry Reid (D), yesterday announced that she will challenge four-term US Representative Mark Amodei in next year’s Republican primary. Ms. Angle ran for the GOP Senate nomination in 2016, a last minute campaign that resulted in her losing a landslide decision to then-Rep. Joe Heck (R-Henderson). She lost a very close contest in this district back in 2006, to now-Senator Dean Heller (R). In that campaign, Angle’s margin of defeat was only 421 votes from just under 69,000 ballots being cast.
Ms. Angle is losing support with every new race she enters, so Rep. Amodei will be rated a strong favorite for re-nomination. She established herself in yesterday’s announcement as a candidate who wants to help implement the Trump agenda, failing to mention that Rep. Amodei was the Trump Nevada campaign chairman last year. All the way back in April of 2015, Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) was indicted on several federal charges involving bribery, fraud, conspiracy, and making false statements. Yesterday, the US Supreme Court indicated the high panel will not review the case, meaning the scheduled September 6th trial will finally proceed.
Politically, not much will happen before an eventual verdict is rendered. First, the Senate race will take a back seat to the open 2017 Governor’s race, that will be decided this November, so the Senate contest will be quiet until that campaign concludes. Second, a guilty verdict could result in Sen. Menendez being forced to resign, meaning an interim appointment or special election being made or called. The seat is in-cycle in 2018. Democrats are likely to retain, but the Menendez’s legal situation brings many questions that won’t be soon answered. Evan McMullin is openly mulling a run for either chamber of Congress in 2018. Republicans Senator Orrin Hatch or Representative Jason Chaffetz (UT-3) are the two seats that McMullin identified in his recent comments. McMullin said, “it is possible that I will challenge Chaffetz or Senator Hatch, but there are a lot of factors that go into that decision. One of the primary factors is what the people of Utah want.” McMullin a former independent candidate for President ran on a anti-Trump platform in 2016. While he managed to draw a respectable showing it was no where near enough to win the electoral votes of Utah. In 2018 McMullin would clearly draw on similar themes for campaign against either of the incumbents from Utah. A challenge to Senator Hatch would be an up hill climb for McMullin, but a primary challenge to Chaffetz could test the temperament of Utah voters for how the Trump administration is fairing. At this point it seems this chatter is about keeping McMullin's name in the mix nationally.
Jon Ossoff stated, "“The only way to approach any election is to try to win it outright. That’s what my team and I are trying to do every day.” Ossoff has become the preferred Democratic candidate of other elected officials and donors in the race to replace Secretary Tom Price in the U.S. House from the Georgia 6th Congressional District. Leading in many of the polls and also winning a considerable money advantage Ossoff has become a lock for the run off from the April 18th special election. With the most recent polling having Ossoff over 40 percent he is closing in on the needed 50% plus 1 needed to win the special election outright. The Georgia 6th barely went for Donald Trump in 2016, but has been a bastion of the Republican party in Georgia going all the way back to when former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich won the seat in 1978. The low turnout of a special and a fired up Democratic base could see Ossoff win outright if his fellow candidates can create a bigger break away from the rest of the pack.
Democrat Jon Ossoff continues to lead in the polling for the April 18th special election replace Secretary Tom Price's old Georgia 6th District seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. Ossoff polled above 40% and has steadily increased his polling lead since the appointment of Price to head the Department of Health and Human Services. Georgia requires a winning candidate to reach 50%+1 to win a general election. This requirement should still lead to a run off in this special election, but Ossoff isn't slowed he might win the election outright on April 18th with a drastically depressed voter turnout in this reliably Republican district in north Atlanta.
Click here for the top line results of the poll that was conducted for zpolitics from March 15-16, 2017. Representative Jim Renacci (OH-16) has joined the race to replace term-limited Governor John Kasich (R) in 2018. Rennaci was first elected to Congress in 2010 defeating incumbent Representative John Boccieri (D). The four-term congressman is a former Mayor of Wadsworth, OH and is touting his business background. Previously Rennaci owned a car dealership and cited the handling of the Great Recession in 2008 as why he ran for Congress n 2010. In the 2016 Presidential race Renacci was a vocal backer of President Donald Trump and is even modeling his 2018 gubernatorial campaign on Trump's 2016 strategy. His website copies Trump's "America First", Ohiofirst.com and his pitch is an outsider who is not with establishment politics whether in D.C. or Ohio. "Unlike other candidates, I've spent the vast majority of my career in the business world, not politics," Renacci said in a press release. "I believe deeply in the value of results, not rhetoric, and I am committed to putting that brand of principled, conservative, business-based thinking to work on behalf of the people of our state."
State Senate Majority Leader Jake Corman (R-Benner Township/State College) late this week announced that he will not enter next year’s gubernatorial campaign. This leaves state Sen. Scott Wagner (R-York) as the lone official Republican challenger to Gov. Tom Wolf (D). US Reps. Mike Kelly (R-Erie) and Pat Meehan (R-Delaware County) both remain as potential candidates. Gov. Wolf’s poor job approval rating makes this Pennsylvania 2018 gubernatorial race one to watch.
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