Looking directly past Super Tuesday to an important March 10th voting state, YouGov tested the Wolverine State Democratic electorate (2/11-20; 662 MI likely Democratic primary voters). The results show only two candidates qualifying for delegate allocation, Sen. Bernie Sanders and former Vice President Joe Biden, with 24 and 16%, respectively. Ex-Mayor Michael Bloomberg and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) are close to qualifying with 13% apiece, while former Mayor Pete Buttigieg follows with 11%.
All could conceivably reach the 15% delegate allocation threshold when the votes are actually cast. Michigan has 125 first ballot delegates and is the largest of the six states voting on March 10th. Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategies reports that their latest data (2/17-20; 500 MN likely Democratic primary voters), and one of the only polls for Minnesota’s Super Tuesday vote, show Sen. Amy Klobuchar now pulling ahead in her home state. The results find her total at 28%, followed by Sen. Bernie Sanders at 23%. The M-D numbers forecast only these two qualifying for delegate allocation. If this were to prove accurate, Sen. Klobuchar would take approximately 41 of the state’s 75 first ballot delegates, while Sen. Sanders would capture the remaining 34.
The University of Massachusetts at Lowell surveyed the September Democratic primary between Sen. Ed Markey and Rep. Joseph P. Kennedy III (D-Newton) and finds a virtual tie between the two men. According to their study (2/12-19; 450 MA likely Democratic primary voters), Rep. Kennedy would lead the early Democratic primary preference, 35-34%.
The numbers split almost evenly throughout the crosstab segmentation, but the underlying issue numbers clearly favor Rep. Kennedy. When asked who would better “stand up” to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), agree more with on the issues, fight for women, people of color, the environment, and “people like you”, Mr. Kennedy was chosen in all of the categories by margins of five to 14 points. This is particularly surprising on the environment response (Kennedy: 34-29%) since Sen. Markey has been a national climate change leader for over 20 years. The issue responses suggest that Rep. Kennedy is stronger than the ballot test reveals. This race has a long way to go before the September 1st state primary, so we can expect a long and competitive political contest to capture the Bay State Democrats With polls throughout the Super Tuesday voting region now coming in rapid fire, a new survey from Minnesota joins those being released. Data from this state has been virtually non-existent, but Sen. Amy Klobuchar’s rise in the national race has spurned pollsters to pay some attention to her home state. Minnesota votes on Super Tuesday and has 75 first ballot delegates.
The University of Massachusetts at Lowell has been busy surveying several states. Their Minnesota study (2/12-19; 450 MN likely Democratic primary voters) sees Sen. Klobuchar climbing to the top of the candidate field for the first time here, or anywhere. The results find the home state Senator leading 27-21-16-10-9-9% over Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), former Mayor Pete Buttigieg, ex-Mayor Michael Bloomberg, and former Vice President Joe Biden, respectively. If this poll proved wholly accurate, the first three candidates would qualify for delegate apportionment, with Sen. Klobuchar clinching the lion’s share of 32 committed first ballot delegate votes. The University of Massachusetts at Lowell also surveyed the North Carolina electorate (2/12-18; 450 NC likely Democratic primary voters) and sees Sen. Bernie Sanders wresting the lead away from former Vice President Joe Biden in the Tar Heel State. Sen. Sanders scores 23% support in this survey with Michael Bloomberg placing second at 19%, and Mr. Biden only capturing 16% support, a reduction of approximately half of his previous preference factor. Sen. Elizabeth Warren follows with 13%, ex-Mayor Pete Buttigieg records 10%, and Sen. Amy Klobuchar posts 7% support.
Winthrop University tested its home state electorate for the coming South Carolina primary (2/9-19; 443 SC likely Democratic primary voters) and they see former Vice President Joe Biden holding his lead but with a smaller margin. Winthrop projects Mr. Biden at 24%, while Sen. Bernie Sanders is next at 19%, billionaire Tom Steyer in delegate allocation position with 15%, and ex-Mayor Pete Buttigieg, and Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Amy Klobuchar following consecutively with 7-6-4% backing.
The University of Massachusetts at Lowell tested the Texas electorate (2/12-18; 600 TX likely Democratic primary voters) and project Sen. Bernie Sanders and former Vice President Joe Biden vying for the lead with the former man having a 23-20% edge. Former Mayor Michael Bloomberg and Sen. Elizabeth Warren are likely in delegate allocation position with 18 and 14% support. No other candidate even reaches the 5% plateau.
Another poll suggests the Alabama Republican primary Senate contest is getting even closer. Former US Attorney General and Alabama Sen. Jeff Sessions continues to come back to the candidate pack after opening with a sizable advantage. Here, his lead over retired Auburn University head football coach Tommy Tuberville is only 32-30%, according to WT & S Consulting who just released their data (2/9-10; 1,048 AL self-identified Republican voters; online). Following is US Rep. Bradley Byrne (R-Mobile) with 22%. The other two candidates, former Alabama Supreme Court chief judge Roy Moore and state Rep. Arnold Mooney (R-Shelby County) don’t surpass the 7% support figure.
The primary is scheduled for Super Tuesday, with a run-off election, likely between Messrs. Sessions and Tuberville, to begin immediately thereafter. Former US Attorney Ed Tarver (D), also a former Georgia state Senator who had said he would soon enter the race, formally announced his candidacy yesterday. He will join notable candidates Kelly Loeffler (R), the appointed incumbent, Rep. Doug Collins (R-Gainesville), businessman Matt Lieberman (D), and Baptist pastor Raphael Warnock (D) in the jungle primary field.
The primary election isn’t until Election Day, November 3rd. If no one scores majority support, a run-off will occur on January 5, 2021. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has already endorsed Dr. Warnock in hopes of making him a consensus candidate to ensure that a Democrat qualifies for the run-off election. Quinnipiac University surveyed the Michigan electorate and found US Senate challenger John James (R) inching closer to incumbent Sen. Gary Peters (D) when compared to their earlier poll. Now, the Q-Poll (2/12-18; 845 MI registered voters) finds Sen. Peters’ lead to be 45-39% over Mr. James, a manufacturing company owner and retired Army Ranger. In January, Sen. Peters had a ten-point lead in the Quinnipiac poll.
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