Gravis Marketing just released their new Florida statewide poll (2/1-18; 1,978 FL registered voters via interactive voice response system) and it finds tight results across the board.
For the Republicans, state Agriculture Commissioner and former US Rep. Adam Putnam (R-Lakeland) continues to lead the Governor’s primary, but now by just a small margin over Rep. Ron DeSantis (R-Palm Coast/Daytona Beach). According to Gravis, Mr. Putnam’s lead is down to 18-16%, with more than 60% of the GOP sampling group saying they are undecided. On the Democratic side, the contest is even closer. There, former US Rep. Gwen Graham (D-Tallahassee) and Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine are tied at 12% apiece. Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum has closed his previous gap and now trails the pair by only three percentage points. Like with Republicans, more than 60% of the Democratic sampling group is undecided. The party primaries are set for August 28th, so all of the campaigns still have much time to develop. --Jim Ellis As they promised, Pennsylvania Republicans filed a lawsuit challenging the new state Supreme Court imposed congressional map. They hope a federal judicial panel will stay the implementation of the new map so that they can still run the 2018 elections under the previous district lines. It is likely the US Supreme Court will address this issue, and on a fast track. The re-scheduled Pennsylvania candidate filing deadline is March 20th, so if this new map is to be replaced, such action will have to come very quickly.
--Jim Ellis JMC Analytics & Polling surveyed the Mississippi Republican electorate to determine Sen. Roger Wicker’s (R) strength for re-nomination. State Sen. Chris McDaniel (R-Ellisville), who came close to upending Sen. Thad Cochran (R) in the 2014 nomination process, still has not ruled out running this year. JMC tested the Senator and Mr. McDaniel in their latest survey (2/15-17; 500 MS potential Republican primary voters) and found the incumbent leading his potential challenger, 38-20%. Though Sen. Wicker has a large lead among those decided, 42% reporting that they are undecided is a large number for a race involving a multi-term incumbent.
Sen. Wicker’s favorability index among Republicans is 43:22% positive to negative. Mr. McDaniel registered a much lower 28:23% ratio. Though Sen. McDaniel says he has still not made a final decision about running, he is fast running out of time. The candidate filing deadline is March 1st, in preparation for the June 5th primary election. --Jim Ellis On the heels of at-large Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-Bismarck) reversing course and joining the Senate race, state Sen. Tom Campbell (R-Grafton) has now also changed political direction. As expected, Mr. Campbell, who had been campaigning for the Senate nomination for the better part of a year, will now enter the open at-large House campaign, attempting to succeed Rep. Cramer. Former state Republican Party chairman Gary Emineth, who briefly became a Senate candidate before receiving information that Rep. Cramer would himself run, said yesterday that he will not enter the open House race. The April state party endorsement convention will go a long way toward deciding who competes in the November open seat campaign.
--Jim Ellis With Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-Alpine/San Diego County) under a FBI investigation for misuse of campaign funds, a new Republican candidate announced that he is entering the congressional campaign and will compete in the June jungle primary. El Cajon Mayor Bill Wells (R) is now in the race, obviously attempting to position himself in case the legal system soon strikes at Rep. Hunter. Four Democrats have declared, two of whom have raised more than $200,000. The 50th District is safely Republican, but that could change if Rep. Hunter soon faces a federal indictment.
--Jim Ellis With early polling showing him faring poorly against Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-Brentwood) in the August Republican primary, former Rep. Stephen Fincher (R-Crockett County) decided to end his statewide effort. In doing so, Mr. Fincher publicly encouraged Sen. Bob Corker (R) to run for re-election.
WPA Intelligence, polling for the Defend the President PAC (2/13-15; 500 TN likely voters; 400 over-sample of Republican likely primary voters) finds Rep. Blackburn crushing Sen. Corker, 55-26%, in a head-to-head GOP contest. In terms of favorability, Sen. Corker scored an upside down 43:47% positive to negative rating, while Rep. Blackburn recorded a 40:26% ratio. In an early general election pairing with presumed Democratic nominee Phil Bredesen (D), the state’s former Governor and Nashville ex-Mayor, Ms. Blackburn seizes a 44-39% edge. --Jim Ellis The Pennsylvania state Supreme Court released its new congressional map and, from first glance, it appears to be a radical re-draw. Some believe the newly configured map, even with the historical regional district numbers being changed, could result in a Democratic gain of three to five seats.
The proverbial ball now moves to the Republicans to see if they will launch a federal lawsuit against this new draw in an attempt to attract the US Supreme Court’s involvement. The high court failed to previously involve itself because the Democrats’ lawsuit was filed against the Pennsylvania Constitution. Now that a different map has been set in place, new legal challenges can be filed. The Supreme Court has stayed similar recent redistricting cases in Michigan, North Carolina, and Texas, all awaiting a decision on the Wisconsin political gerrymandering case, so Pennsylvania Republicans launching a similar appeal in hopes of receiving similar consideration is expected. --Jim Ellis On the heels of Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-ND-AL) eschewing re-election to challenge Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D) and becoming the 55th House member not to run for another term, Florida Rep. Tom Rooney (R-Okeechobee) added his name to the burgeoning retirement list with his announcement that he won’t run for a sixth term. President Trump carried this district, 62-35% in the 2016 campaign, and Mr. Rooney has averaged 61.2% of the vote since the expansive central-south district was reconfigured in its present form.
With the Rooney retirement, 39 Republicans are not seeking re-election in addition to 17 Democrats. The Florida candidate filing deadline is not until May 4th in preparation for the August 28th primary election, so much time remains for political maneuvering. --Jim Ellis The Texas Tribune sponsored a primary election poll in anticipation of the state’s first-in-the-nation midterm primary scheduled for March 6th. According to the survey (YouGov; 2/1-12; 1,200 TX adults; 633 modeled Republican primary voters; 517 modeled Democratic primary voters; an over-sample of 424 confirmed primary voters were added to the respective party samples; weighted sampling universe), Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez has opened a 43-24% lead over businessman Andrew White, son of former Gov. Mark White, in the Democratic gubernatorial primary. The winner faces an uphill battle against first-term incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott (R).
The pollsters also asked about the US Senate race, among other statewide campaigns. There, it appears that both Sen. Ted Cruz (R) and Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-El Paso) can expect little primary competition in early March. Both are easily expected to win their respective nominations without run-offs, and then face each other in the general election. --Jim Ellis The Senate Conservatives Fund tested the Tennessee Republican electorate in the wake of reports that Sen. Bob Corker (R) may be changing his mind about retiring. With Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-Brentwood) staying in the race regardless of Corker’s status, the SCF decided to determine where the candidates currently stand. According to the poll (2/12-13; 600 TN likely Republican primary voters), it is Ms. Blackburn who would open with a commanding lead. She has a 49-26% advantage over the two-term incumbent. The third Republican candidate, former US Rep. Stephen Fincher (R-Crockett County) posted only 9% support.
--Jim Ellis |
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