Responding to several September polls that find the race between Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) and former South Carolina Democratic Party chairman Jaime Harrison falling within the polling margin of error, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee announced yesterday that they will invest “seven figures” into the state to help their party nominee. According to the Daily Kos Elections website, only one other outside group has entered this race, the Strength in Security PAC who reserved $1.6 million in television time months ago in order to support Sen. Graham.
The House Majority PAC, associated with the House Democratic leadership, released the results of their Expedition Strategies poll (9/9-14; 754 CO-3 likely voters; live interview) that finds party nominee Diane Mitsch Bush leading Republican Loren Boebert by a two point, 46-44%, margin when leaners to both candidates are included.
Ms. Boebert upset Rep. Scott Tipton (R) in the June Republican primary, thus making the seat more competitive in an open situation. Ms. Bush is the 2018 Democratic nominee who lost to Mr. Tipton, 51-43%. The Expedition poll found President Trump and Joe Biden locked in a 47-47% tie from a district that the Republican carried, 52-40%, in the 2016 election.
Lakeland City Commissioner and retired Navy fighter pilot Scott Franklin denied freshman Rep. Ross Spano (R-Dover) re-nomination in August, and now we see the first published poll indicating how he will fare in the general election. According to the Democratic Greenberg Quinlan Rosner firm survey (9/4-6; 400 FL-15 likely voters), Mr. Franklin is staked to a relatively healthy 49-42% advantage over former television newscaster Alan Cohn (D).
The 15th is a traditionally Republican district with GOP candidates typically winning in the high 50s to low 60s. Mr. Spano won the seat in 2018 after then-Rep. Dennis Ross (R) retired. He became the victim of bad publicity during his first term over inappropriate loans used for his 2018 campaign. This helped lead to Mr. Franklin’s upset 51-49% Republican primary win on August 18th. Mr. Cohn upset favored state Rep. Adam Hattersley (D-Riverview), 41-33%, within a field of four Democratic candidates.
Last week the director of the Alaska Division of Elections ruled that no longer would a split party designation appear on the state ballot. This means that congressional candidate Alyse Galvin will appear only as the Democratic nominee and not as a Democrat/Independent. Now, Ms. Galvin has filed a lawsuit challenging the ruling citing her long-standing status as an unaffiliated voter.
As a result of the lawsuit, presiding state judge Jennifer Henderson has halted ballot production until the case is resolved. At this point, however, according to the Anchorage Daily News, over 800,000 ballots have already been mailed. The state of Alaska then officially filed a motion to the State Supreme Court, asking for an emergency ruling before 6 pm local time today, so that ballot production can resume or the re-printing process can begin.
The new Quinnipiac University poll (9/10-14; 1,183 ME likely voters; live interview) finds former Vice President Joe Biden posting a huge 21-point lead over President Trump, 59-38%. The data finds the President would even lose the 2nd Congressional District, which would provide him an important extra electoral vote. In ME-2, Mr. Trump would trail Mr. Biden, 53-44%. No other Maine survey has returned numbers as stark as these. Therefore, we can expect to see more polling being conducted here in order to confirm this trend or provide a different result.
Minnesota is again attracting more polling attention, this time from ABC News/Washington Post. While the Land of 10,000 Lakes has been polling much closer lately, the ABC/WP survey (9/8-13; 615 MN likely voters; live interview) finds former Vice President Joe Biden opening up a much larger 57-41% lead over President Trump. This is inconsistent with other recent data (five polls) that found the margin ranging from four to nine points.
It’s also seemingly at odds with ABC/WP’s own findings in next door Wisconsin. The survey there (9/8-13; 605 WI likely voters; live interview) gives Mr. Biden a six-point, 52-46% lead, which is consistent with other polling.
Atlanta businessman Matt Lieberman, son of former Connecticut Senator and 2000 Democratic Vice Presidential nominee Joe Lieberman, released his HarrisX poll that was conducted at the end of August (8/20-30; 1,616 GA registered voters).
Mr. Lieberman’s point in releasing the findings was to show that he was only three percentage points behind Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee endorsed opponent Rev. Raphael Warnock, 16-13%, in the jungle primary survey. The data also showed, however, that neither would qualify for the January 5th runoff election as Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) and Rep. Doug Collins (R-Gainesville) would be the two who advance at 26 and 21%, respectively.
Quinnipiac University also sampled the Kentucky electorate (9/10-14; 1,164 KY likely voters; live interview administered by the RDD firm) and sees a much different result than from their Maine data. In the Bluegrass State race, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) leads retired Marine Corps helicopter pilot Amy McGrath (D), 53-41%, despite the latter raising almost $50 million for the race to date.
The aforementioned Quinnipiac University survey (see Presidential section: Maine, above) also finds Sen. Susan Collins (R) badly trailing state House Speaker Sara Gideon (D-Freeport). The Q-Poll numbers reveal a 54-42% margin in Ms. Gideon’s favor, far beyond what has been recently published. As recently as the beginning of September in a Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research survey for AARP (8/30-9/5; 800 ME likely voters) the Gideon margin was only one point over Sen. Collins. In between the AARP poll and Quinnipiac, the Citizen Data organization (9/4-7; 600 ME likely voters) found the spread to be eight points, 49-41%.
Democratic pollster Global Strategy Group released their survey of the western Michigan 3rd District (9/8-10; 400 MI-3 likely voters; live interview) and sees Iraq War veteran and grocery store magnate Peter Meijer (R) and attorney Hillary Scholten (D) tied at 41% apiece.
The sample skews left, as the generic ballot test reaches 45D-40R%, in a district that hasn’t elected a Democrat since Richard Vander Veen won a special election in 1974 to replace Gerald Ford (R), who had resigned the seat to become Vice President. Mr. Vander Veen was then defeated in 1976 and the seat has remained Republican ever since. Current incumbent Justin Amash was elected as a Republican but switched to the Libertarian Party.
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