The US Census Bureau officers released their latest population projections in order to measure national population growth for the period between July 1, 2018 and July 1, 2019. The results find the national rate of growth slowing to 0.5%, mostly as a result of decreased immigration. The peak period for the decade came during the July 1, 2014 – July 1, 2015 period when the growth rate registered 0.73%.
With these numbers come the ability to project which states will gain and lose congressional seats in 2020 reapportionment. The national reapportionment will be calculated and announced after the 2020 census is completed. The states will receive their congressional seat quota a year from now, with a release typically coming during the period between Christmas and New Year’s.
If current projections prove correct, Texas looks to gain three seats, Florida two, with Arizona, Colorado, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon each slated to gain one. The losing states look to be Alabama, California, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and West Virginia.
If these projections prove true, California will lose a seat for the first time in history. It’s also realistic that the actual totals could yield a two-seat loss for Illinois or New York, and possibly both. Right now, it appears ten congressional seats will change states, but that number could grow. Usually, the actual numbers tend to differ slightly from the early published projections.
Eleven-term Oregon Representative Greg Walden (R-Hood River) released a statement late yesterday saying that he will not seek re-election next year to the position he originally won in 1998. Mr. Walden is the ranking Republican on the House Energy & Commerce Committee and was chairman when Republicans held the majority. He is also a former National Republican Congressional Committee chairman.
The 2nd District occupies 19 eastern Oregon counties and part of one other. It is the lone safe Republican seat in the state (Trump ’16: 57-37; Romney ’12: 57-41%). There are now 30 open seats for the next House election, 21 of which come from the Republican column.
Alec Skarlatos, an Oregon National Guardsman who helped stop a terrorist attack on a Paris-bound train in 2015 and later played himself in a Clint Eastwood directed movie depicting the event, has announced a bid for Congress. This won’t be Mr. Skarlatos first political run, however. Last year, he ran for Douglas County Commissioner, and while placing second in a field of eight candidates for the non-partisan position, still came just under 1,300 votes of winning.
Mr. Skarlatos will be running in the Republican primary to eventually challenge House Transportation and Infrastructure chairman Peter DeFazio (D-Springfield/ Eugene) who has held the politically marginal district since the beginning of 1987.
Before having the opportunity of challenging the Congressman, Skarlatos must first get past former Oregon Republican Party chairman Art Robinson who has been the 4th District GOP congressional nominee in every election of this decade. Also in the race is former congressional candidate Jo Rae Perkins who lost the nomination to Robinson in 2018. OR-4 was one of the closest CDs in the 2016 presidential election. Hillary Clinton nipped President Trump here, 46.1 – 46.0%, so the 2020 general election has the potential of becoming competitive.
Milwaukie (OR) Mayor and National Geographic magazine photographer Mark Gamba yesterday filed a Federal Election Commission committee, the first official step toward launching a Democratic primary challenge campaign to six-term veteran Rep. Kurt Schrader (D-Canby/Salem). If Mr. Gamba can raise substantial resources, the race could become viable. Rep. Schrader tends to be more moderate than his electorate, which could open the door to stiff competition especially in context with the concurrent presidential campaign atmospherics.
Yesterday, two-term Sen. Jeff Merkley (D) announced that he will seek re-election next year. His declaration also means that he will not be a presidential candidate, which he acknowledged, because the Oregon political leadership would not adhere to his request to change election law so individuals could simultaneously seek more than one office. Sen. Merkley is a prohibitive favorite for re-election.
Yesterday, Oregon Secretary of State Dennis Richardson (R) lost his long battle with brain cancer and passed away at age 69. With no Lt. Governor, the Secretary of State assumes the Governorship in case of a vacancy. The office also has strong power with regard to redistricting, thus filling the position could render national implications. Oregon looks to be gaining a new congressional seat, so this redistricting cycle will likely be an important one in the Beaver State.
Gov. Kate Brown (D) has the authority to appoint a replacement for the late Mr. Richardson. The Governor indicated that she would consider naming a Republican provided the individual promised not to seek election to a full term in 2020.
Attempting to follow Sen. Cory Booker’s (D-NJ) lead in changing state law to allow an individual to run simultaneously for different offices, Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-OR) is not finding the same reception among Oregon political leaders as Mr. Booker did in New Jersey. Asked whether the state legislature will move on legislation to, in this case, allow Mr. Merkley to run for President as he seeks re-election to the Senate, the state Senate President and House Speaker, according to local publication Willamette Week, respectively did not respond to inquiries and said that she doesn’t currently have a position on the issue.
But, Gov. Kate Brown’s (D) spokesperson was a bit more definitive saying, “Gov. Brown’s current focus is on helping Oregon families thrive and working with legislators, stakeholders, and community members on her budget and policy agenda, which does not include a proposal for legislation on this topic.”
A new DHM poll for the Oregon Public Broadcasting network (10/4-11; 500 OR likely voters) again finds only a small margin separating Gov. Kate Brown (D) and state Rep. Knute Buehler (R-Bend). Oregon, however, is a state where polling seems to favor Republican candidates in better margins than historical voting patterns would suggest.
That being the case, the DHM numbers find Gov. Brown’s lead at only 40-35%. Her favorability index is dead even at 45:45% positive to negative. Mr. Buehler’s is 36:29%. Sen. Ron Wyden (D) scores best among those tested at 54:29%. President Trump is worst at 41:55%. Regardless of the current poll results, Gov. Brown is still favored to win re-election to a full four-year term.
Ms. Brown ascended to the office from her Secretary of State position when then-Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) resigned in 2015. She stood for a special election in 2016 and won 51-43%, with polling again showing a closer race than actual results.
Gravis Marketing released the results of their Oregon gubernatorial poll (7/16-17; 770 OR likely general election voters) and surprisingly find Gov. Kate Brown (D) and state Rep. Knute Buehler (R-Bend) tied at 45%, apiece. The sampling group contains 33% registered Democrats, 23% registered Republicans, with the remainder (44%) being Independent or unaffiliated voters. But, the major party respondents are a bit light in each party. The actual Oregon voter registration roles show the Democrats at 35.6%, Republicans claiming 26.1%, and the combined Independent and unaffiliated total reaching 35.9%.
A skew could be present here, but the other questionnaire responses seem consistent with Oregon voters’ typical predispositions. Therefore, though this Gravis poll may well be an outlier, it also could be showing us a new trend for this particular race. More data will need examining to begin providing an answer.
With little competition in the US House races and no Senate race for 2018, all attention was focused on the Republican gubernatorial primary. There, state Rep. Knute Buehler (R-Bend) defeated former statewide candidate Sam Carpenter and Blue Angels former commander Greg Wooldridge by a 47-29-19% count. Mr. Buehler now challenges Gov. Kate Brown (D) who stands for her first full term after winning a 2016 special election. Gov. Brown is favored for re-election.
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