The state Board of Elections, on a 2-1 vote, will allow both 5th District Republican convention winner Bob Good and 7th District convention candidate Nick Freitas ballot position despite them missing the candidate filing deadline. The 5th District now officially features Mr. Good, who defeated freshman Rep. Denver Riggleman (R-Manassas) for re-nomination in the district convention, against Charlottesville physician Cameron Webb who won the Democratic primary.
Mr. Freitas will now be able to compete in the 7th District nominating convention scheduled for July 18th. The winner of that contest faces freshman Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Glen Allen).
Public Policy Polling released the first 5th District general election survey numbers since the Republican district convention and the Democratic primary now that incumbent Rep. Denver Riggleman (R-Manassas) is eliminated from the competition. According to PPP (6/22-23; 726 VA-5 self-described registered voters) former Campbell County Supervisor Bob Good (R) has a slight 43-41% edge over Charlottesville physician Cameron Webb (D).
PPP asked no ideological push questions on this poll, but Mr. Good is under-performing within what remains a decidedly Republican district. President Trump pulls a 50:47% job approval ratio, and the generic Republican candidate out-polls the generic Democrat, 49-42%. Mr. Good’s favorability ratio in 26:23% favorable to unfavorable, and Dr. Webb registers a 27:16% rating.
Two key Virginia races now have nominees. In Virginia’s 5th District, Democrats selected local physician Cameron Webb scored a landslide 66% victory to oppose former Campbell County Supervisor Bob Good (R), the man who denied freshman Rep. Denver Riggleman (R-Manassas) re-nomination in the June 13th Republican district convention. Mr. Good, however, still must obtain a ballot placement waiver from the Virginia Board of Elections for missing the candidate filing deadline.
In the Tidewater area, a re-match of the 2018 campaign will occur. Former Rep. Scott Taylor, who lost his seat in that election, will return for a re-match with his primary victory last night. He will battle freshman Rep. Elaine Luria (D-Norfolk) in the general election.
Voters in New York, North Carolina, and Virginia will choose congressional nominees in various districts today. New York hosts the most competitive slate, with ten competitive primaries coming to culmination.
The vacant 27th District will be filled in a special election between state Sen. Chris Jacobs (R-Buffalo) and Democratic former Grand Island town official Nate McMurray.
The competitive incumbent challenges to Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-Bronx) and Eliot Engel (D-Bronx) will also produce a nominee along with lesser challenges to Reps. Yvette Clarke (D-Brooklyn), Jerrold Nadler (D-Manhattan), and Carolyn Maloney (D-Manhattan). Key open seat primaries will be held in the 15th (Rep. Jose Serrano-D, retiring) and the 17th (Rep. Nita Lowey-D, retiring) districts, both featuring crowded fields. The Republicans will also choose a successor to retiring Rep. Peter King (R-Seaford).
Western North Carolina voters will replace now White House chief of staff Mark Meadows on their state’s 11th District November ballot. Former local county Republican chair Lynda Bennett and real estate investment company owner Madison Cawthorn will square off in the postponed Republican runoff election.
In Virginia’s 5th District, Democrats will choose their nominee to oppose former Campbell County Supervisor Bob Good (R), the man who denied freshman Rep. Denver Riggleman (R-Manassas) re-nomination in the June 13th Republican district convention.
Freshman Virginia Rep. Denver Riggleman (R-Manassas) was defeated for re-nomination on Saturday, losing a unique “drive-through convention” that the 5th District Republican Party leaders contrived in response to COVID-19 precautions. In a mock convention nomination process that was conceived to favor him, even to the point of having the lone voting site at the candidate’s church, Campbell County Supervisor and Liberty University athletic official Bob Good won the party’s congressional nomination with a 58-42% margin among the 2,537 5th District GOP delegates casting their ballots.
Rep. Riggleman’s team says they are “considering their options” now that the vote has been cast, but it is unclear what they can do to overturn the result. One opening could be that Mr. Good missed the candidate filing deadline, but party officials are indicating that mistake is irrelevant. Mr. Good now advances into the general election against the winner of the June 23rd Democratic primary that features four candidates, all of whom have been active on the fundraising circuit. It is likely that this general election campaign could now become competitive.
Mr. Riggleman is the third incumbent House member to lose re-nomination in this election cycle. He joins Reps. Dan Lipinski (D-IL) and Steve King (R-IA) as incumbents who failed to obtain their party’s backing for re-election.
Many Republicans believe that Virginia state Delegate Nick Freitas (R-Culpeper) is their strongest challenger opposite freshman Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Glen Allen) but he has once again missed a filing deadline. In the 2019 elections to retain his state Delegate seat, Mr. Freitas failed to meet the candidate filing deadline and was forced to win his seat as a write-in contender.
Now, in filing for the Republican district convention to win the party congressional nomination, which is scheduled for July 18th after being postponed due to COVID-19 precautions, Mr. Freitas again failed to file by the June 9th deadline. Party officials, however, say he will still be admitted to the local convention as a congressional candidate.
CNN conducted a nationwide political poll (5/7-10; 1,112 US adults; 1,001 registered voters; 302 over sample in 15 battleground states) and compared the national results to those found in 15 battleground states. The latter group included the typical swing states like Florida, North Carolina, Michigan, and Wisconsin, but also added Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia, places where former Vice President Joe Biden has developed significant leads.
On the national count, as found in most other polls, Mr. Biden leads President Trump, 51-46%, but the numbers are virtually reversed, 52-45%, in Mr. Trump’s favor within the all-important battleground states.
In a Republican contest that looks to be serious, freshman Virginia Republican US Rep. Denver Riggleman (R-Manassas) will have to win re-nomination at a party convention in a church parking lot outside of the district. Fifth District GOP committeemen have scheduled their nominating assembly for Saturday, June 13th at the Tree of Life Ministries Church in Lynchburg, which isn’t even in the 5th CD, and deliver their ballots to party officials in the parking lot. The Congressman’s principle opponent is Campbell County Supervisor Bob Good, who is a member at Tree of Life. Rep. Riggleman, who is contesting the convention process and favors a primary to decide the nomination, is exploring his legal options.
Gov. Ralph Northam (D) has issued a stay at home order longer than any other state chief executive, wanting people to remain in their residences until June 10. This is one day after the Virginia state primary, and Republicans around the state were accusing the Governor of choosing that deadline to drive GOP turnout down which, they think Northam believes, would result in producing the most extreme nominee up and down the ballot thus giving Democrats a further advantage. Yesterday, Gov. Northam changed the primary date, and now Virginians, in districts with primaries, will vote on June 23rd.
Just as in Colorado, the Data for Progress polling organization tested the Virginia Super Tuesday electorate (2/23-25; 499 VA likely Democratic primary voters). Here Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) leads former Vice President Joe Biden, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), and ex-Mayor Michael Bloomberg 28-19-17-17%. Here, too, the numbers suggest that the top four candidates will likely qualify for delegate allocation.
Polling such as what we see in these three states mentioned above gives credence to the analysis that the Super Tuesday result will be muddled with several candidates gaining a substantial number of bound first ballot delegates. Super Tuesday’s results will go a long way toward determining if a first ballot victory can be achieved, or whether the candidates advance to a contested national convention in July.
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