The House Majority PAC, associated with the House Democratic leadership, released the results of their Expedition Strategies poll (9/9-14; 754 CO-3 likely voters; live interview) that finds party nominee Diane Mitsch Bush leading Republican Loren Boebert by a two point, 46-44%, margin when leaners to both candidates are included.
Ms. Boebert upset Rep. Scott Tipton (R) in the June Republican primary, thus making the seat more competitive in an open situation. Ms. Bush is the 2018 Democratic nominee who lost to Mr. Tipton, 51-43%. The Expedition poll found President Trump and Joe Biden locked in a 47-47% tie from a district that the Republican carried, 52-40%, in the 2016 election.
Public Policy Polling recently surveyed the Colorado electorate (8/18-19; 731 CO voters) regarding the Senate race and gun control. They found former Governor and presidential candidate John Hickenlooper (D) to be holding a 51-42% advantage over Sen. Cory Gardner (R), but there is a Democratic skew affecting the sample.
Looking at voter registration statistics, the poll uses a 37% Democrat - 30% Republican -33% Unaffiliated segmentation within the sampling universe. The official Colorado voter registration statistics, however, find Democrats at 30.2%, Republicans recording 27.7%, and the Unaffiliated segment reaching the 40.4% level – quite a different picture than the poll paints. Accounting for the skew suggests that the Colorado Senate race is closer than the PPP ballot test displays.
Public Policy Polling went into the field right before and during the Democratic Senate primary to test former Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) against Sen. Cory Gardner (R). The PPP survey (6/29-30; 840 CO “voters”) posts the new Democratic Senate nominee to a 51-40% lead over Sen. Gardner.
Several points to make, however. First, testing during the height of advertising and voter turnout operations that were attracting more attention to the Democratic primary could yield a skew in the polling results. Second, using the undefined term “voters”, as opposed to registered voters or, more commonly, likely voters, leads one to conclude that the sample is comprised of potential voters, or the ubiquitous “adults.” Clearly, this is the least accurate of samples. Third, PPP often uses push questions in their surveys as they did here. The question painted Sen. Gardner and Majority Leader Mitch McConnell as stopping a bill that would have attacked political corruption.
The shock of the primary night was five-term Colorado Rep. Scott Tipton (R-Cortez) going down to defeat against insurgent challenger Lauren Boebert, a business owner who stressed 2nd Amendment protection and less government in her campaign. Though spending less than $200,000 on her campaign, Ms. Boebert, who owns an I-70 restaurant called “Shooters Grill” in Rifle, CO and typically wears a firearm strapped to her hip, successfully painted Rep. Tipton as falling in with the Washington, DC crowd and defeated him by almost 10,000 votes.
Primary turnout in the seat commonly referred to as the “Western Slope District”, which looks to reach approximately 120,000 votes when all ballots are counted, more than doubled the last primary held here in 2016. Rep. Tipton becomes the fifth incumbent to lose re-nomination this year, and the third Republican. Ms. Boebert now advances into the general election against 2018 nominee Diane Mitsch Bush, who won the Democratic primary with 61% of the vote. The general election is now expected to be competitive.
Former Colorado Governor and presidential candidate John Hickenlooper won the state Democratic primary last night with a 60-40% win over former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff. The victory margin was less than originally expected but pumped up after Hickenlooper began losing ground. Outside groups, including national Democratic institutional organizations, came to the rescue with a seven-figure media buy to help the former Governor’s cause. He now advances into the general election to face Sen. Cory Gardner (R).
There has been substantial political media coverage suggesting that former Colorado Governor and ex-presidential candidate John Hickenlooper is losing support against ex-state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff in tomorrow’s Democratic primary.
Survey USA, in their final pre-primary Colorado poll, finds a different conclusion, however. In their poll (6/19-24; 575 CO likely Democratic primary voters), Mr. Hickenlooper is again brandishing a very strong 58-28% lead over his Democratic primary opponent.
Former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff released an internal poll late last week that, while still showing him trailing former Gov. John Hickenlooper for the June 30th Democratic US Senate primary, proves he is gaining momentum. The Myers Research and Strategic Services firm (6/16-17; 500 CO likely Democratic primary voters), finds Mr. Hickenlooper leading Mr. Romanoff 51-39%, which is much closer than their previous 68-19% finding when polling first began of this primary in late October.
Mr. Hickenlooper is coming under fire after being found in violation of two state Ethics Commission findings and has received not only negative media coverage for the decision but has come under further significant attack from Romanoff over integrity issues. Though the underdog is gaining in the primary battle, it is still likely that he won’t be able to overcome what is still a substantial Hickenlooper advantage. Since the former Governor’s victory next Tuesday may be tepid, he looks to be starting the general election against Sen. Cory Gardner (R) in a weaker position than expected.
After the Colorado Ethics Commission found former Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) in violation of two ethics provisions during his tenure as the state’s Governor, trends have taken a downturn in his US Senate campaign. Apparently, internal polling must be showing Mr. Hickenlooper falling into a close race for Tuesday’s Democratic primary against former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff.
The progressive left Senate Majority PAC just put down a $1 million media buy in order to improve Mr. Hickenlooper’s image after the Ethics Commission ruling. Suddenly, what was a mundane primary affair coming this Tuesday is beginning to draw more attention.
CNN conducted a nationwide political poll (5/7-10; 1,112 US adults; 1,001 registered voters; 302 over sample in 15 battleground states) and compared the national results to those found in 15 battleground states. The latter group included the typical swing states like Florida, North Carolina, Michigan, and Wisconsin, but also added Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia, places where former Vice President Joe Biden has developed significant leads.
On the national count, as found in most other polls, Mr. Biden leads President Trump, 51-46%, but the numbers are virtually reversed, 52-45%, in Mr. Trump’s favor within the all-important battleground states.
The Colorado Democratic Senate ballot has become a political football with several candidates filing lawsuits to reduce the number of petition signatures required due to the COVID-19 precautions, while previously disqualified candidates attempted to obtain ballot placement through court decree.
What began as twelve candidates looking to run for the Democratic nomination to oppose Sen. Cory Gardner (R) is now down to two official contenders for the June 30th primary: former Gov. John Hickenlooper and ex-state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff. With the courts finally making definitive rulings, the ballot is now set.
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