The US Census Bureau officers released their latest population projections in order to measure national population growth for the period between July 1, 2018 and July 1, 2019. The results find the national rate of growth slowing to 0.5%, mostly as a result of decreased immigration. The peak period for the decade came during the July 1, 2014 – July 1, 2015 period when the growth rate registered 0.73%.
With these numbers come the ability to project which states will gain and lose congressional seats in 2020 reapportionment. The national reapportionment will be calculated and announced after the 2020 census is completed. The states will receive their congressional seat quota a year from now, with a release typically coming during the period between Christmas and New Year’s.
If current projections prove correct, Texas looks to gain three seats, Florida two, with Arizona, Colorado, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon each slated to gain one. The losing states look to be Alabama, California, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and West Virginia.
If these projections prove true, California will lose a seat for the first time in history. It’s also realistic that the actual totals could yield a two-seat loss for Illinois or New York, and possibly both. Right now, it appears ten congressional seats will change states, but that number could grow. Usually, the actual numbers tend to differ slightly from the early published projections.
State Sen. Angela Williams (D-Denver), a long shot for the Democratic Senatorial nomination, and particularly so after former Gov. John Hickenlooper ended his presidential campaign and joined the Senate race, announced yesterday she is discontinuing her statewide effort and will again seek re-election to the state Senate. Though Mr. Hickenlooper still has competition for the party nomination, it is clear that he is headed for a strong victory that will launch him into a difficult general election campaign with incumbent Sen. Cory Gardner (R).
In one of the few 2020 political situations that yields a Republican incumbent congressional primary challenge, local businesswoman and gun rights activist Lauren Boebert announced that she will challenge five-term Western Slope Congressman Scott Tipton (R-Cortez) in the June 30th Colorado Republican primary next year. It is hard to see how a primary challenge from the right will be successful against Rep. Tipton, but the developing contest deserves monitoring, at least in the short term, to see if Ms. Boebert can amass the resources necessary to run a credible campaign.
Former five-term Congressman Mike Coffman, who represented his Denver suburban district until being defeated one year ago, has made a political comeback. On Tuesday night, he was elected Mayor of Aurora, CO, a major community of over 350,000 people. Mr. Coffman defeated a field of four opponents with a close 273 vote win, or less than half of a percentage point. All of the municipal races on Tuesday evening in the city came down to just a few votes. Mr. Coffman has represented Aurora in the state House, state Senate, Congress, and now will be the locality’s Mayor.
A new Colorado Senate poll, consistent with other early surveys, finds former Governor John Hickenlooper (D) establishing a solid lead over incumbent Sen. Cory Gardner (R) in a state that continues to move leftward. A trio of research firms, Keating Research, OnSight Public Affairs, and Martin Campaigns combined their efforts to field this specific Centennial State poll (10/10-14; 500 CO registered voters). The results find Mr. Hickenlooper posting a 53-42% lead over Sen. Gardner in a race that promises to attract major national attention.
The favorability index also substantially favors Hickenlooper despite him crashing and burning at the presidential campaign level. Mr. Hickenlooper posted a 51:35% favorable to unfavorable ratio while Sen. Gardner is upside down with a 34:45% rating. Mr. Hickenlooper still must win the Democratic primary, however, as nine candidates are opposing him for the nomination. He is a heavy favorite, however, against former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff, state Sen. Angela Williams (D-Denver), and seven others.
Saying she has no path to victory after former Gov. John Hickenlooper entered the Democratic Senatorial primary, former state House Majority Leader Alice Madden announced over the weekend that she is ending her statewide campaign. She joins ex-state Sen. Mike Johnston and former diplomat Dan Baer in departing from the contest since Mr. Hickenlooper emerged after exiting the presidential campaign.
Though eleven candidates remain in the Democratic primary, it appears obvious that the general election will feature Mr. Hickenlooper and Sen. Cory Gardner (R) in a campaign that will draw a great deal of national attention.
Former Denver state House Speaker Crisanta Duran (D-Denver) over the weekend dropped her Democratic primary challenge to veteran US Rep. Diana DeGette (D-Denver). Ms. Duran suffered a burst appendix less than a month ago, and said she came to the conclusion that she can “be more effective in pursuing transformational change through other means.” Absent a strong primary challenge, Rep. DeGette again looks like a sure bet for re-election and should easily win a 13th term from this heavily Democratic urban seat.
Last week, national construction company CEO Denise Burgess announced her candidacy for the Democratic nomination, showing no fear to line up opposite former Gov. John Hickenlooper and eleven others. Already, however, she has ended her campaign. A news story revealing that she has liens against her for unpaid taxes is the factor that has prematurely driven her from the campaign. Mr. Hickenlooper is the clear favorite for the party nomination and we can expect him to be Sen. Cory Gardner’s (R) general election opponent.
Since former Gov. John Hickenlooper has returned from the presidential campaign and jumped into the US Senate race, three Democrats have ended their efforts: former state Sen. Mike Johnston, ex-US Attorney John Walsh, and former US Ambassador and State Department official Dan Baer. This, however, has not stopped a new candidate from emerging. Denise Burgess, owner of a national construction management company, officially joined the Senate field yesterday. Mr. Hickenlooper is still a strong favorite for the nomination, but it is clear he is not yet a consensus nominee. The eventual Democratic winner challenges Sen. Cory Gardner (R) in the general election.
Former state Sen. Mike Johnston, who was the leading money raiser in the crowded Senate Democratic race with $3.4 million raised and $2.6 million in the bank, has suspended his campaign. Mr. Johnston, a former gubernatorial candidate, indicated he is simply “not willing to run the kind of negative race needed” to defeat ex-Gov. John Hickenlooper for the Democratic Party nomination.
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