Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills/Scottsdale) represents a Republican suburban Phoenix district, but he is under investigation for allegedly misusing some of his government funds for political purposes. While the campaign here hasn’t yet drawn much national attention, his likely Democratic opponent, Dr. Hiral Tipirneni who ran in the 8th District special and general election during the last election cycle, has quietly raised well over $2 million and is reporting more than $1.6 million cash-on-hand. This race will become competitive and is an upset possibility.
Change Research, as discussed in the North Carolina section below, conducted a semi-national poll in six battleground states including Arizona. Since they don’t release the individual state samples, it is difficult to measure accuracy. In North Carolina, their results differ greatly with East Carolina University.
In Arizona, however, Change and local respected pollster Data Orbital (6/27-29; 600 AZ likely voters) see a similar result. Change projects retired astronaut Mark Kelly (D) to be holding a 53-44% lead over appointed Sen. Martha McSally (R), while DO sees a slightly closer 50-43% spread.
Siena College and the New York Times are again partnering to produce a series of political polls as they did last year. Yesterday, mid-June results were made available for Senate races in Arizona, Michigan, and North Carolina. The results are consistent with what we have been seeing for quite some time in these three frequently polled states.
Retired astronaut Mark Kelly and Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI) maintain their recent approximate ten-point advantages over appointed Sen. Martha McSally (R-AZ) and manufacturing company owner John James (R) in Arizona and Michigan, respectively.
The North Carolina race, which is predicted to seesaw between Sen. Thom Tillis (R) and former state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D) again produces a tight result for Siena/NYT. We’ve seen six similar polls released for the state in June, including S/NYT, and the margin between the two candidates hover between one and four points. The Siena/NYT result shows a three-point edge for Mr. Cunningham. Of the six surveys, four find the Democrat slightly ahead with two favoring Sen. Tillis in a similar realm.
Recently data from across the country and in key battleground states have forecast a strong advantage for Democratic nominee-designate Joe Biden over President Trump. A new Change Research polling series of seven polls, six stemming from their national polling sample (6/12-14; 1,250 US likely general election voters with subsets in AZ, FL, MI, NC, PA, and WI) finds the President gaining in his must-win states.
The national ballot test continues to give Biden a wide 51-41% national margin, but, as is the case with such polling, the Democrats’ overwhelming advantage in the big states skews the overall popular vote count. Additionally, as we saw in 2016, the national count is irrelevant in electing a US President.
In the key states, however, Change Research, which is a Democratic pollster, finds Trump to be within 1-4 points in the key battlegrounds of Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and down by seven points in Florida. It is these battlegrounds that will truly decide the November election.
The Civiqs polling organization, surveying for the Daily Kos Elections website (6/13-15; 1,368 AZ previously selected respondents from a larger sampling pool; online), again finds retired astronaut Mark Kelly (D) holding a substantial lead over appointed Sen. Martha McSally (R). The numbers break 51-42% in Kelly’s favor, which is actually a slight improvement for McSally. This compares to the poll’s 49-45% split for Joe Biden over President Trump, which is a more reasonable spread as compared to some recent surveys of the Arizona electorate.
Fox News tested the Arizona electorate (5/30-6/2; 1,002 AZ registered voters) and while they post improving numbers for President Trump (trailing Joe Biden 42-46%), they find retired astronaut Mark Kelly (D) continuing to build a substantial lead over appointed Sen. Martha McSally (R). These results find Mr. Kelly posting a 50-37% advantage.
The HighGround Consulting firm poll (5/18-22; 400 AZ likely general election voters) released earlier this week that projected former Vice President Joe Biden to be running ahead of President Trump by less than two percentage points sees consensus Democratic candidate Mark Kelly, the retired astronaut, leading appointed Sen. Martha McSally (R), 51-41%. Polling has consistently shown Kelly with an advantage, and now his edge is regularly reported as being beyond the polling margin of error.
In the middle of May, OH Predictive Insights (5/9-11; 600 AZ likely general election voters) released their Arizona statewide survey that received considerable attention in the political pundit community due to the Grand Canyon State’s importance in the presidential campaign. With its 11 electoral votes, Arizona is a must-win state for the Trump campaign. The OH poll found former Vice President Biden leading 50-43%, his largest margin to date, but little in the way of analysis accompanied the poll release.
Several days later, Redfield & Wilson Strategies released their Arizona poll taken during relatively the same time frame as OH Predictive Insights (5/10-14; 946 AZ likely general election voters) and found a much closer result: Biden, 45-41%. Now, another Phoenix-based pollster, HighGround, Inc., (5/18-22; 400 AZ likely voters), sees a race well within the statistical margin of error: Biden, 47.0 – 45.3%. The May trend again suggests that Arizona, while moving closer to the ideological center as its population continues to rapidly expand, is a domain very much in play for both candidates as we begin the general election campaign in earnest.
The aforementioned OH Predictive Insights Arizona survey (see Arizona in the Presidential section above) finds appointed Sen. Martha McSally (R) dropping behind retired astronaut Mark Kelly (D) by a double-digit margin for the first time. The ballot test yields a 51-38% Kelly advantage. As what plagued her in the 2018 Senate race against Kyrsten Sinema (D), population dominant Maricopa County is performing well above the norm for a Democratic candidate.
Regular Arizona pollster OH Predictive Insights (5/9-11; 600 AZ likely voters) finds former Vice President Joe Biden putting some distance between he and President Trump, 50-43%, in what is a must-win state for the Republican incumbent. The poll itself is not yet in the public domain, therefore making it difficult to analyze the nuances.
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