​GBAO Strategy & Research conducted the first poll of the open seat Democratic primary (4/15-18; 600 NM likely Democratic primary voters) and finds Rep. Ben Ray Lujan (D-Nambe/ Santa Fe) jumping out to a huge 64-25% lead over just-announced Senate candidate Maggie Toulouse Oliver, the New Mexico Secretary of State. 
 
Rep. Lujan has already attracted major endorsements including the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, but this did not dissuade Ms. Oliver from entering.  No Republican has yet announced.  Sen. Tom Udall (D) is retiring.

​As expected, Rep. Ben Ray Lujan (D-Nambe/Santa Fe) is not going to have a free ride to the open Democratic US Senate nomination despite him already scoring major endorsements such as the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. 
 
Yesterday, New Mexico Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver (D) announced that she will run for the party nomination in hopes of succeeding retiring Sen. Tom Udall (D).  In November, Ms. Oliver was re-elected to a four-year term with a 58-37% margin.  Therefore, she will not have to risk her current position to run for the Senate. 
 
Rep. Lujan is favored for the nomination and the general election.  So far, the only Republican to declare for the race is Gavin Clarkson, the college professor who Ms. Oliver defeated in November.

​Despite US Rep. Ben Ray Lujan (D-Nambe/Santa Fe) securing key endorsements such as his latest from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, New Mexico Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver (D) just filed a campaign committee with the Federal Election Commission and says to expect an announcement soon.  While Rep. Lujan is favored to win the open seat party nomination and the general election to replace retiring Sen. Tom Udall (D), he is now likely drawing significant opposition.

​Chris Mathys, who lost the GOP nomination for a district position on the New Mexico Regulation Commission by a mere 25 votes last June, is returning to run for a higher office.  This week, Mr. Mathys announced that he will compete for the GOP nomination to face freshman Rep. Xochitl Torres Small (D-Las Cruces) in a general election campaign that will be competitive. 
 
But first, Mr. Mathys will have to deny former state Rep. Yvette Harrell (R) re-nomination.  In November, she held then-candidate Torres Small to a tight 51-49% victory margin.

​Freshman Rep. Deb Haaland (D-Albuquerque), who flirted with the idea of running for the state’s newly open US Senate seat, announced yesterday that she will seek re-election to the US House position she won last November.  At this point, Rep. Ben Ray Lujan (D-Nambe/Santa Fe) clearly has the inside track to the Democratic nomination and will be favored in the general election.  Republicans have yet to see a major candidate come forward.  Sen. Tom Udall (D) is retiring.

​Now that Rep. Ben Ray Lujan (D-Nambe/Santa Fe) has announced that he will run for the Senate, candidates for the open 3rd District House seat are coming forward.  So far, three individuals have announced, all Democrats.  Freshman state Rep. Joe Sanchez (D-Alcalde) is the only elected official who has entered the race, but others are soon expected.  Businessman and former state legislative candidate Mark McDonald is now in the race, as is 2018 state Representative candidate Cameron Chick, Sr. 
 
The Democratic primary winner will hold the inside track to winning the seat in the general election.  Republicans are not expected to make a major push in this northern New Mexico district considering its long history as a Democratic stronghold.

​Rep. Ben Ray Lujan (D-Nambe/Santa Fe) announced his run for the state’s newly open Senate race yesterday.  Mr. Lujan becomes the first major candidate of either party to announce his candidacy after Sen. Tom Udall (D) made his retirement intentions public last week.  Other Democrats, including Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver and freshman Rep. Deb Haaland (D-Albuquerque) are also potential candidates.
 
The Republican side has been relatively quiet, but former Gov. Susana Martinez and ex-Albuquerque Mayor Richard Berry would certainly be formidable statewide candidates, as would former Congressman Steve Pearce who is currently the New Mexico Republican Party chairman.  Democrats will be favored to hold the seat, but the contest could potentially turn competitive.

​Sources indicate that Rep. Ben Ray Lujan (D-Nambe/Santa Fe) will announce his run for the state’s newly open Senate race as early as today.  But, many believed that Attorney General Hector Balderas (D) was also a sure entry and he declared late last week that he won’t run for the Senate.  So, we will see what happens either today or within the next few days.

​In a political week dominated by Sen. Tom Udall’s (D) unexpected announcement that he will retire after his current term ends, another surprise happened yesterday.  Attorney General Hector Balderas (D) appeared set to announce his intention to run for the open Senate seat in a video message scheduled for release, yesterday.  Instead, Mr. Balderas announced that he will not run, choosing to remain in his current position. 
 
Early next week, Rep. Ben Ray Lujan (D-Nambe/Santa Fe) is expected to become the first candidate to formally declare for the open seat.  Without Mr. Balderas in the race, Rep. Lujan appears to be the early favorite for the Democratic nomination and the seat itself.  But, with well over a year before the June Democratic primary, this campaign is just beginning.

​Two-term Democratic Sen. Tom Udall (D) yesterday announced via video message from his home that he will not seek a third term next year but promises to remain active in the political process.  The move is unforeseen as Sen. Udall looked to be a lock for re-election.  Democrats will be favored to hold the seat, but a Republican making this open contest competitive is certainly within the realm of possibility.