Many polls are currently being released, but the Trafalgar Group data draws special attention since the research organization was the only pollster to correctly predict Wisconsin and Pennsylvania at the end of the 2016 election cycle. The new Trafalgar Florida poll (6/29-7/2; 1,072 FL likely voters) again finds the race much closer than other pollsters. In this case, Trafalgar sees a dead tie between the two major party contenders, with both President Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden scoring 46% support among the surveyed respondents.
Again looking at a Trafalgar Group poll, this time of the important Pennsylvania electorate (6/29-7/2; 1,062 PA likely voters), the ballot test finds former VP Joe Biden leading President Trump, 48-43%, which is consistent with other current polling data. We can expect seeing regular polls coming from this state for the rest of the election cycle.
After being quiet most of the presidential election cycle, the Trafalgar Group, the only pollster to correctly project the Great Lakes states in the 2016 election, released new data for Michigan, and again they are cutting against the polling grain. According to their latest political research study (6/16-18; 1,101 MI likely voters), Trafalgar projects former Vice President Joe Biden to hold only a one-point 46-45% lead over President Trump, which is almost identical to Change Research’s (6/12-14; 353 MI likely voters) 47-45% published polling margin.
Trafalgar and Change portend the most recent data and reflect a much different trend. All other earlier pollsters find the Democratic nominee-designate scoring leads of at least 12 points (five pollsters) from May 30 through June 12.
Recently data from across the country and in key battleground states have forecast a strong advantage for Democratic nominee-designate Joe Biden over President Trump. A new Change Research polling series of seven polls, six stemming from their national polling sample (6/12-14; 1,250 US likely general election voters with subsets in AZ, FL, MI, NC, PA, and WI) finds the President gaining in his must-win states.
The national ballot test continues to give Biden a wide 51-41% national margin, but, as is the case with such polling, the Democrats’ overwhelming advantage in the big states skews the overall popular vote count. Additionally, as we saw in 2016, the national count is irrelevant in electing a US President.
In the key states, however, Change Research, which is a Democratic pollster, finds Trump to be within 1-4 points in the key battlegrounds of Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and down by seven points in Florida. It is these battlegrounds that will truly decide the November election.
The Associated Press is citing sources inside Democratic presidential nominee-designate Joe Biden’s campaign that the Vice Presidential running mate list has been narrowed to six individuals.
Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), Kamala Harris (D-CA), Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D-NM), US Representative and former Orlando Police Chief Val Demings (D-FL), Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, and former UN Ambassador Susan Rice comprise Mr. Biden’s reported final list of potential running mates. Long ago, the former Vice President said he would choose a female running mate. Absent from the list is Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), who appears to be eliminated. The campaign spokespeople indicate the choice will be made public on or slightly before August 1st.
Former Vice President Joe Biden clinched the Democratic nomination last night in the Peach State with an 84% victory and a 65% win West Virginia sweeping the state’s combined 133 bound first ballot votes. By all counts now, Mr. Biden has exceeded the minimum 1,991 delegate votes to officially clinch the party nomination.
In the middle of May, OH Predictive Insights (5/9-11; 600 AZ likely general election voters) released their Arizona statewide survey that received considerable attention in the political pundit community due to the Grand Canyon State’s importance in the presidential campaign. With its 11 electoral votes, Arizona is a must-win state for the Trump campaign. The OH poll found former Vice President Biden leading 50-43%, his largest margin to date, but little in the way of analysis accompanied the poll release.
Several days later, Redfield & Wilson Strategies released their Arizona poll taken during relatively the same time frame as OH Predictive Insights (5/10-14; 946 AZ likely general election voters) and found a much closer result: Biden, 45-41%. Now, another Phoenix-based pollster, HighGround, Inc., (5/18-22; 400 AZ likely voters), sees a race well within the statistical margin of error: Biden, 47.0 – 45.3%. The May trend again suggests that Arizona, while moving closer to the ideological center as its population continues to rapidly expand, is a domain very much in play for both candidates as we begin the general election campaign in earnest.
Voters in Hawaii cast their ballots in a Democratic presidential nomination primary over the Memorial Day weekend that is not particularly important in the scope of campaign politics but did provide an interesting note.
In a first round of voting that included ten candidate names who had previously qualified for the Hawaii primary, former Vice President Joe Biden, the party’s presumptive nominee, received only 56% as compared to Sen. Bernie Sanders’ (I-VT), 31%. In a second round, featuring only Biden and Sanders, the former VP’s total was still a rather unimpressive 63% for a candidate who has no active Democratic opposition.
After US Rep. Justin Amash (L-MI) decided not to seek his new party’s presidential nomination, Libertarian Party delegates met in a Memorial Day weekend virtual convention to choose its national general election nominee. After multiple rounds of voting, Clemson University professor Jo Jorgensen prevailed, and will advance to the general election by constructing a majority coalition of delegates mostly from the South and Midwest. Ms. Jorgensen will have ballot access in all 50 states, but it is unlikely that she will be able to earn a national debate podium if and when those forums are scheduled.
Minnesota, the most loyal of all states to Democratic presidential candidates, was close in 2016 when Hillary Clinton carried the state with only a 1.5 percentage point margin. A new Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy survey (5/18-20; 800 MN registered voters) finds presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden leading President Trump, but the spread again suggests the state election could be close. According to M-D, Mr. Biden holds a 49-44% advantage. Minnesota carries 10 electoral votes. This state is a must-win for Mr. Biden.
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