In a move that has been building for the last several weeks, former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper became the second candidate to end his 2020 presidential effort. With virtually no way to qualify for the September debate and barely registering on any poll, Mr. Hickenlooper yesterday announced that he would end his national campaign. He stopped short, however, of declaring a bid for the Colorado Senate seat, a race that would pit him against first-term Sen. Cory Gardner (R).
Early polling finds Mr. Hickenlooper with an overwhelming lead in the Senate Democratic primary, even with 13 announced opponents. While his entry into the statewide race is probable despite him earlier saying serving in the Senate would not be for him, we will have to wait a bit longer to see it actually happen.
The Change Research organization has previously conducted simultaneous online communication polls in several states, and they have done so again. Yesterday, the group released its surveys for Iowa and Wisconsin. The polls were both conducted over the August 9-11 period. The Iowa survey queried 621 likely Democratic caucus attenders, while the Wisconsin sampling sector featured 626 likely Dem primary voters.
Sen. Warren captures the lead in both states. In Iowa, she tops Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), former Vice President Joe Biden, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA), 28-17-17-13-8%, respectively. Wisconsin breaks similarly: Warren 29%, Sanders 24%, Biden 20%, Buttigieg 9%, and Harris 5%. Obviously, this data shows an uptick for Sens. Warren and Sanders and a possibly dangerous downturn for Mr. Biden.
The new survey from the international research firm YouGov, polling for The Economist magazine, finds Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Bernie Sanders (I-VT) closing in on front runner Joe Biden, the former Vice President. According to the YouGov data (8/10-13; 592 likely Democratic primary voters), Mr. Biden has only a 21-20-16% edge over Sens. Warren and Sanders, while Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) follows with 8% support, and ex-Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-TX) and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg each record 5 percent. Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) and Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI) tie with 2% preference, and all others post 1% or less.
This is a small-sample poll, so the error factor is high, but it does verify recent survey trends that suggest the race is again tightening for Biden, while Sen. Harris is clearly losing significant support.
A new survey from the nation’s first primary state, New Hampshire, was just released from Gravis Marketing (8/2-6), though their likely Democratic primary voter sample is low with just 250 people interviewed. As other polls have found, former Vice President Joe Biden generally doesn’t fare particularly well in Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Elizabeth Warren’s (D-MA) political backyard.
Gravis finds Sen. Sanders, who received 60% of the vote here in his 2016 primary against Hillary Clinton, topping the field with 21% support followed by Mr. Biden who only posts 15%. Sen. Warren is next at 12% while South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) record 8 and 7% preference scores. Tracking above 2% in New Hampshire for the first time are Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI) with 5%, and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MA), businessman Andrew Yang, and billionaire Tom Steyer who all register 4% support.
Former Vice President Joe Biden has been doing very well in southern state polling, and the new Oklahoma Sooner Poll supports the stated trend. Looking closer at the survey methodology, however, tells us that this particular study is inconclusive. First, the sampling period is over a long ten-day span (7/17-27), and second, while 373 Oklahoma voters were sampled, only 152 individuals are registered Democrats. Both factors substantially decrease reliability.
Therefore, the ballot test projecting Mr. Biden with 26% support as compared to Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s (D-MA) 12% means that only 40 respondents chose Biden and just 17 voiced support for his chief opponent. These numbers are clearly not high enough to form a credible statewide tabulation.
Franklin & Marshall College released their new Keystone State survey (7/29-8/4; 295 likely PA Democratic primary voters from a pool of 627 PA registered voters) for the Democratic presidential primary and finds former Vice President Joe Biden’s advantage being a bit less than expected.
Mr. Biden, born in Pennsylvania and who represented neighboring Delaware for 36 years in the Senate, scores only 28% support here, and is closely followed by Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s (D-MA) 21% preference. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) is the only other candidate who scores in double-digits, at 12%. California Sen. Kamala Harris posts only 8%, while South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg registers a first-choice tabulation of just 6 percent.
The poll’s sample size, however, is very small. Just 295 likely Democratic primary voters are surveyed, making the poll’s error factor very high. Therefore, the results should be discounted, but it is difficult to tell in what direction. The Pennsylvania primary is one of the later ones on the Democratic schedule, April 28, 2020, which could put the state in an interesting position if the race is close at that point. Pennsylvania has 186 first ballot delegate votes.
Monmouth University released their latest Iowa presidential caucus poll yesterday (8/1-4; 401 likely Democratic caucus participants from a pool of 681 Iowa sampled registered voters) that projects former Vice President Joe Biden leading his opponents with 28% support. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) is second, as she is now in most polls, with 19%, while Sens. Kamala Harris (D-CA), Bernie Sanders (I-VT), and Mayor Pete Buttigieg trail with 11, 9, and 8%, respectively.
Interestingly, this is the first poll that finds any noticeable support for recent entry Tom Steyer, the billionaire former hedge fund manager who is heavily involved in the climate change and impeachment issues. Mr. Steyer, like Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), notches 3% support. Iowa is an important state for neighboring Sen. Klobuchar. Failing to show strength in the Hawkeye State will likely doom her presidential effort.
Quinnipiac University went into the field right after the July 31st Democratic presidential debate (8/1-5; 807 Democratic and Democratic leaning Independent voters) and found former Vice President Joe Biden continuing to lead, with Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) establishing a strong foothold in second place. The results yield Mr. Biden recording 32% followed by Sen. Warren with 21%, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) sitting at 14%, and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) dropping all the way to 7%, just ahead of South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg who continues to poll only in mid-single digits at 5 percent.
Emerson College released their small-sample Texas Democratic poll conducted for the Dallas Morning News (8/1-3; 400 TX Democratic primary voters), which finds former Vice President Joe Biden topping his opponents with 28% support. Ex-Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke is second with 19%, followed by Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) at 16 and 14%, respectively. Under Democratic delegate apportionment rules, this poll would suggest that the four top finishers would all qualify to receive a share of the state’s 228 first ballot delegates, the second largest delegation at the Democratic National Convention.
Former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper, whose presidential campaign has gone nowhere, is rumored to soon be exiting the national race and may enter the Colorado Senate campaign against Republican incumbent Cory Gardner. This is a developing story.
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