We continue to see tight polling coming from the Iowa Caucus prelude, scheduled for a vote on February 3rd. Emerson College (10/13-16; 317 IA likely Democratic Caucus attenders) finds former Vice President Joe Biden and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren tied at the top of the Democratic field with each posting 23% support figures.
South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg is seeing his Iowa efforts begin to bear fruit as he captures third position with 16% preference. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) drops to fourth position with 13%. California Sen. Kamala Harris who, like Buttigieg, also said she is making Iowa a top priority has failed to gel, dropping all the way down to a tie for eighth position with only 2% backing.
More is becoming known about the presidential campaigns’ financial status. The October 15th filing disclosure deadline is now past, and reports are becoming public.
We knew from the announcements last week that Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) had raised the most among Democrats during the quarter, and now we see that he has the largest dollar amount in his account, $33.7 million. Next is Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) with $25.7 million followed closely by South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg’s $23 million. Biggest surprise: former Vice President Joe Biden showing only $9 million on hand, just ahead of businessman Andrew Yang’s $6 million.
Siena College surveyed the New York electorate (10/6-10; 742 NY registered voters; 340 NY registered Democratic voters) and found former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) locked in a flat tie at 21% apiece. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) is a close third with 16%. New York has 273 first ballot delegates after gaining 49 more in a recent Democratic National Committee nomination process adjustment. The addition makes New York the second largest contingent at the Democratic National Convention. The largest state, California with 416 first ballot votes, is almost equally split among the three candidates according to the most recent primary polling.
Raleigh-based Public Policy Polling (10/4-6; 410 NC likely Democratic primary voters) just released their new North Carolina Democratic survey, and it finds former Vice President Joe Biden enjoying a substantial advantage. According to the PPP results, Mr. Biden records 39% support as compared to Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) posting 22% preference.
Under the Democratic National Committee delegate apportionment formula these are the only two candidates who would receive convention votes from this state. Mayor Pete Buttigieg places third with 9% and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) gets only 6% of the respondents. A candidate must score 15% of the primary vote to qualify for at-large delegates. North Carolina is joining the Super Tuesday primary on March 3rd.
The monthly Politico/Morning Consult Democratic presidential primary survey is out and the results show very little change from the previous pattern. The poll (9/30-10/6; 16,529 Democratic likely primary voters; online) finds former Vice President Joe Biden maintaining a healthy lead over Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Bernie Sanders (I-VT), 33-21-19%. Consistent with the current prevalent polling pattern, Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg remain in single digits with 6 and 5%, respectively.
Quinnipiac University released their latest Q-Poll (10/4-7; 646 US registered voters), which portends a much different result than what Politico/Morning Consult (see above) reached. The Q-Poll sees Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) eclipsing former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), 29-26-16%. All of the other candidates recorded percentages no greater than four. Methodology and sample selection appear as the key reasons for the rather large discrepancy between the two polls taken during similar time periods.
Frequent Pennsylvania pollster Susquehanna Polling & Research also released their latest work (9/30-10/6; 307 PA registered voters), which is again a small-sample survey. As expected, former Vice President Joe Biden leads the pack of candidates, but with only a 17% preference factor. No other candidate even reaches double digits. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) is second with 9%, Mayor Pete Buttigieg has 8% support, just ahead of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) who records 6% support. The small sample size and abnormally high undecided figure leaves much to question about this study.
The new Investors Business Daily/TIPP poll finds Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) eclipsing former Vice President Joe Biden 27-26% with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) posting 10%. The small sample size of just 341 registered voters throughout the US is woefully small, however, particularly when taken over a long period (9/26-10/3). Though the TIPP polls have a good past prediction record, the results of this particular poll should be disregarded because the sample size makes the reliability factor too low.
Last week, as we reported, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Mayor Pete Buttigieg released strong 3rd Quarter fundraising figures, $25.3 and $19.1 million, respectively, and now Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and former Vice President Joe Biden have also publicized their totals. Ms. Warren came close to Sanders’ number at $24.6 million, but Mr. Biden was considerably behind even Mayor Buttigieg at $15.2 million raised.
Fox News just completed a Wisconsin political poll (9/29-10/2; 1,512 WI registered voters; 663 WI likely Democratic primary voters) and finds former Vice President Joe Biden continuing to lead in what could become a very important post-March presidential primary on April 7th. The data shows Mr. Biden capturing 28% preference compared to Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s (D-MA) 22 percent. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) posted 17%, and all of the others were in single digits. In late August, Marquette Law School found the former VP also holding 28% with Sanders second at 20%, and Warren recording 17 percent.
The Rundown Blog
Before you vote, learn more about the candidates who will support a pro-jobs America.