North Carolina, one of the critical states in the 2020 election for both President and Senate, also reports detailed early voting statistics. Currently, 852,013 absentee votes have been returned from 1,448,960 who requested the mail ballots for a present return rate of 58.8%. This is in addition to the people who have voted early in-person.
The overall participation percentages from Democrats, Republicans, and Unaffiliated voters have all greatly increased. A total of 57.0% of registered voters have already returned ballots or voted in person. The Republican number is 54.4%, and the Unaffiliated segment returns at 46.7%. In 2016, those percentages were 36.9%, 36.2%, and 29.0%, respectively. Republicans, for the first time in early voting history, led an in-person vote day, and it has now happened seven times during the 2020 early voting period. All age groups are reporting an uptick in participation with the exception of the 45-65 segment, which is down 3.1% in comparison to 2016. ABC/Washington Post released a survey of Wisconsin voters that is returning numbers never seen in the state during this election cycle. This suggests the survey is an outlier, especially when compared to the Marquette Law School poll that was conducted during the same period.
ABC/WaPo (10/20-25; 809 WI likely voters; online) finds former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Trump by a huge 17-point margin, 57-40%, which the polling analysis claims is a response to an increase in COVID-19 cases within the state. Marquette (10/21-25; 749 WI likely voters; live interview) sees the race much differently, though still with a Biden lead. They find a ballot test result of 48-43% in favor of Mr. Biden. Remember, however, that 33 polls were conducted in Wisconsin during the 2016 election cycle, and zero showed President Trump ahead, yet he won the state. It remains to be seen if the same pattern is present this year. We have another example of two more polls taken within the same time period reflecting much different results. Florida Atlantic University (10/24-25; 937 FL likely voters; live interview & online) tested the Sunshine State’s electorate and projected former Vice President Joe Biden (D) to a 50-48% slight lead over President Trump. Susquehanna Polling & Research, in the field during the same period (10/23-25; 400 FL likely voters; live interview) saw President Trump opening one of his largest Florida leads of the election cycle, a four-point spread, 48-44%, when leaners are added for both candidates. Florida is a must-win state for the Trump campaign.
Three presidential polls were released in the Keystone State of Pennsylvania yesterday with wide-ranging results. Ipsos/Reuters (10/20-26; 655 PA likely voters; online) finds former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Trump, 53-44%. YouGov (10/13-21; 736 PA registered voters; online) sees a similar 51-44% split in Biden’s favor. Insider Advantage, on the other hand (10/25; 400 PA likely voters; live interview & interactive voice response system) shows President Trump forging a three-point edge, 48-45%.
We have six polls reporting from what could be the most important state on the presidential map, Arizona, and three are looking up for President Trump, while another trio are trending downward. The Morning Consult survey (10/11-20; 1,066 AZ likely voters; online) finds President Trump leading former Vice President Joe Biden, 48-47%, while Susquehanna Polling & Research (10/19-22; 500 AZ likely voters; live interview) projects the two tied at 47%. Basswood Research, earlier in October (10/3-5; 800 AZ likely voters; live interview), produced a 49-48% edge for President Trump.
Conversely, Ipsos/Reuters (10/14-21; 658 AZ likely voters; online) gives Mr. Biden a 50-46% edge; and Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (10/18-19; 800 AZ likely voters; live interview & online) yields the former VP a 48-46% advantage; while, RMG Research for the Political IQ blog (10/14-19; 800 AZ likely voters; live interview & text) sees just a one-point spread in Mr. Biden’s favor, 47-46%. It appears that the Arizona vote is definitively drawing closer. The plethora of polls are also producing major conflicts within the same electorate during the same time period, a statistical inconsistency that has been frequently present in several recent situations. The latest Michigan presidential numbers are a clear example.
While the new Zia Poll (10/11-18; 2,851 MI likely voters; online) posts President Trump to a four point, 49-45%, lead and the Trafalgar Group (10/15-18; 1,034 MI likely voters; text & online) sees a 47-45% Trump edge, two others give former Vice President Joe Biden wider spreads. EPIC-MRA (10/15-19; 600 MI likely voters; live interview) yields the Democratic nominee a nine-point, 48-39%, margin, and Public Policy Polling (10/21-22; 804 MI voters; interactive voice response system) sees a similar 50-43% split. The Pan Atlantic Research company polled the state of Maine, giving us the statewide count and results from the 1st and 2nd Congressional Districts. Maine is one of two states that split their electoral votes, meaning that candidates can earn an EV for carrying a federal district. In 2016, though Hillary Clinton clinched the state, President Trump won the 2nd District and that provided him an extra national vote. It appears he will need the 2nd District again.
According to the Pan Atlantic data (10/2-6; 600 ME likely voters; online), former Vice President Joe Biden’s statewide lead over President Trump is 50-40%, which is similar to what other pollsters have detected. In the Democratic First Congressional District (300 ME likely voters), the Biden lead is 17 points, 54-37%. In the more conservative northern 2nd Congressional District (300 ME likely voters), Mr. Biden still leads, but the margin is only 47-43%. Considering that none of the three polls released here in 2016 ever showed Mr. Trump leading, and he would eventually win the 2nd by ten percentage points, a four-point deficit at this point is not a particularly daunting margin. In attempting to quantify the actual vote, pollsters are using different methods to determine if a “shy Trump voter” actually exists. That is, people who are voting for President Trump, but won’t say so. The idea at least partly explains why pollsters missed many states, particularly in the Great Lakes region, back in 2016.
The new Fox News Poll (10/3-6; 1,107 US registered voters; 1,012 likely voters; live interview) finds former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Trump, 53-43%, on the national count, but when asked about who the respondents believe their neighbors are supporting, the numbers substantially change. Here, by a 48-39% margin, the respondents said they believe their neighbors are voting for President Trump. Many analysts believe the responses more accurately reflect the individual respondent’s actual beliefs. The neighbors spread represents a net 6-point swing on that question in President Trump’s favor from the Fox News August poll. A federal court judge in North Carolina ruled on an election procedure challenge lawsuit on Friday. While not agreeing to lessen the absentee ballot requirements even further, as the plaintiffs were requesting, he did extend the post-election ballot reception period even beyond the November 6th deadline. Now, ballots can still be received and counted as long as they are received by November 12th, meaning nine full days after the election.
As predicted, just released post-debate polling is generally showing former Vice President Joe Biden increasing his lead over President Trump, but the focus now is the chief executive’s health because of his COVID-19 diagnosis on Friday. Until we see a clear recovery prognosis, however, it is wise not to give too much credence to any poll currently being conducted or released since short-term change in the presidential race status is inevitable.
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