As usual, we see several polls being released of a race, with a wide range of results. All show Democrat Mark Kelly leading, but the span is quite wide. Each of the surveys were conducted between the October 13-21 period.
The most favorable to Mr. Kelly comes from YouGov (10/13-16; 1,065 AZ registered voters; various online panels) and gives the Democrat an 11-point advantage, 52-41%. Ipsos/ Reuters (10/14-21; 658 AZ likely voters; online interviews) gives Mr. Kelly a 51-43% margin. The most favorable poll for appointed Sen. Martha McSally (R) comes from Rasmussen Reports/ Pulse Opinion Research (10/18-19; 800 AZ likely voters; live interview & online), which yields Mr. Kelly only a two-point edge, 46-44%.
In another instance of wide-ranging Senate polls, we show two more that may give us our largest spread. Public Policy Polling (10/19-20; 897 KS voters; interactive voice response system) sees the open contest between Rep. Roger Marshall (R-Great Bend) and state Sen. Barbara Bollier (D-Mission Hills) as a dead heat tie, 43-43%, with Libertarian Jason Buckley taking 5% preference.
The co/efficient organization saw things wholly differently. According to their survey (10/18-20; 2,453 KS likely voters; online) sees Rep. Marshall opening up his biggest lead of the general election campaign, 51-39%. Most data show the race close, but the Kansas voting history is more in line with the co/efficient result.
The Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy company tested the Kentucky Senate race between Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) and retired Marine Corps helicopter pilot Amy McGrath (D). Ms. McGrath raised over $84 million through September 30th, the second-most of any candidate in the country behind only South Carolina’s Jaime Harrison (D) who posted $86 million.
The M-D survey (10/12-16; 625 KY registered voters; live interview) finds Sen. McConnell holding a 51-42% lead over Ms. McGrath, which is consistent with earlier polls, though this race has surprisingly not attracted a large amount of attention from the polling community, probably because the race is not particularly close.
In the only previously published poll in the VA-2 race, which appeared in July, the Tarrance Group found freshman Rep. Elaine Luria (D-Norfolk) and former Rep. Scott Taylor (R) tied at 48%, apiece. As the election draws near, we see a significant change in Rep. Luria’s favor. According to the Christopher Newport University survey (10/8-18; 807 VA-2 registered voters; live interview), Rep. Luria has opened up a 50-43% over Mr. Taylor.
The latter man has been dogged with bad media coverage after two of his aides were convicted of vote fraud from the 2018 campaign. Mr. Taylor had first entered the Senate race against incumbent Mark Warner but diverted back to the House campaign when he failed to make headway in the statewide effort. This data suggests that Rep. Luria is a clear favorite to return in the next Congress.
Yesterday, we covered the latest Emerson College poll that found Georgia Rep. Doug Collins (R-Gainesville) making a move on the Senate special election field. The Emerson survey projected Mr. Collins tied with Rev. Raphael Warnock (D) and ahead of Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) by seven percentage points.
The Siena College/New York Times survey has a different take. It’s new poll (10/13-19; 759 GA likely voters; live interview) sees Rev. Warnock, who is coalescing the Democratic vote around his candidacy, leading the pack with 32%, while Sen. Loeffler trails at 23% support. Rep. Collins is back all the way to 17%. This large disparity between the two surveys taken within the same time frame suggests that the entire special election jungle primary field is fluid.
We’ve seen many examples this year of two polling firms surveying the same race at relatively the same time yet finding diverse results. None may be a better example of this phenomenon than the latest set of surveys coming from western Michigan’s 3rd Congressional District. In polls conducted during the October 5-9 period, National Research, Inc. and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s Targeting and Analytics Department arrived at very different conclusions.
The DCCC survey (10/7-9; 449 MI-3 likely voters) finds Democrat Hillary Scholten leading military veteran and grocery store magnate Peter Meijer (R), 47-42%. National Research (10/5-7; 400 MI-3 likely voters) finds almost the exact opposite result: Mr. Meijer leading 50-43%. The most recent published poll prior to the aforementioned surveys, from We Ask America (9/19-20; live interview & text messages), projected a similar tally to that of National Research; that is, Mr. Meijer holding a 48-41% advantage. The 3rd District is open because Libertarian Rep. Justin Amash (L-Cascade Township/Grand Rapids) is retiring.
Despite the last two polls giving challenger Eugene DePasquale (D) a lead over incumbent Rep. Scott Perry (R-Dillsburg/Harrisburg), a new Tarrance Group survey for the National Republican Congressional Committee (10/13-15; 400 PA-10 likely voters; live interview) sees the Congressman returning to the lead in a district that the state Supreme Court re-drew in 2017 as a more Democratic seat.
The Tarrance results find Rep. Perry holding a four-point edge, 48-44%. Mr. DePasquale is the Pennsylvania State Auditor who is ineligible to seek a third term in his current position. Both men have raised similar amounts, each obtaining more than $3.2 million for their respective campaigns.
In the Southern California race to replace retiring Rep. Susan Davis (D-San Diego), two Democrats qualified for the general election under the state’s top-two primary system. Survey USA polled this contest for local San Diego television station KGTV (10/15-18; 511 CA-53 likely voters; live interview) and found former State Department official Sara Jacobs posting a large lead over San Diego City Council President Georgette Gomez, 40-27%. Ms. Jacobs is a second time congressional candidate, running for the first time in the San Diego-Orange County 49th District that Rep. Mike Levin (D-San Juan Capistrano) currently represents.
Every election year, campaigns that don’t receive a lot of national attention often become competitive races. In the Dayton area, veteran Rep. Mike Turner (R-Dayton) finds himself only leading law school graduate Desiree Tims (D), 49-45% according to a Garin Hart Yang Research Group poll for the Tims campaign (10/15-18; 400 OH-10 likely voters; live interview). Both candidates had raised approximately $1.5 million through September 30th.
The Phoenix-based Data Orbital polling firm is tracking the Arizona early voting statistics and releasing the numbers of ballots already cast at the various election centers and through the mail. As expected, Democratic early participation is much greater than their Republican counterparts, but the latter party’s numbers, too, are up substantially from the 2016 early voting report.
According to Data Orbital, 549,551 votes have already been cast, 47.3% from Democrats, 32.6% from Republicans, with 20.2% of the grand total attributed to Independent voters. Compared to the first 12 days of voting in 2016, over 200,000 more ballots have been cast. Democrats are up over 125,000 from their total four years ago, while Republicans increased their total by almost 51,000. Independent early votes are over 27,000 than their preliminary 2016 voting pace. Four years ago, more than 2.573 million Arizonans cast their ballots, meaning the 2020 total early voting number so far represents 21.3% of the 2016 grand total.
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