The Syracuse anchored congressional district was the site of a close campaign in 2018 between Rep. John Katko (R-Syracuse) and college professor Dana Balter (D) that ended in a 52-46% victory for the GOP incumbent. This year, Ms. Balter returns hoping to take advantage of former Vice President Joe Biden likely carrying this district.
Two polls have been recently released that tell a different story of how the re-match campaign is unfolding. The Katko campaign released their Public Opinion Strategies survey (8/12-15; 400 NY-24 likely voters) that gave the Congressman a healthy 51-40% advantage. The GBAO firm for the Balter campaign (8/23-25; 500 NY-24 likely voters) yields Ms. Balter a 48-46% edge, quite different from the Katko numbers. Though Hillary Clinton carried this CD by only four percentage points in 2016, Joe Biden leads President Trump, according to the GBAO data, 52-40%.
Now that the New York election authorities have finally released their June 23rd primary results, we see that state Sen. Chris Jacobs (R-Orchard Park) certainly won the special election but not nearly with the margin first published. Now that all the mail votes have been tabulated, which added another 79,000+ votes to the ballot pool, Mr. Jacobs’ win percentage dropped from the high 60s to 51-46% over former local town Supervisor Nate McMurray (D). The mail vote doubled the number of people voting in person, meaning a total voter universe of approximately 160,000 individuals.
The aggregate vote underscores the strong Republican lean from those who appear in-person as compared to the mailed ballots that overwhelmingly favor Democrats. The two candidates will again face each other in the regular November general election.
Six full weeks after the June 23rd primary in New York City, we finally have official winners in the two outstanding congressional races. As predicted, Representative Carolyn Maloney (D-Manhattan) has defeated challenger Suraj Patel in a close vote count. Congresswoman Maloney will now sweep to an easy general election victory in the Fall. She was first elected to the House in 1992 after spending ten years as a member of the New York City Council.
New York City Councilman Ritchie Torres, who led the counting throughout the entire marathon counting process in his Bronx anchored congressional district, has won the open Democratic primary and will replace retiring Representative Jose Serrano. This is the safest Democratic seat in the nation – President Trump received 5% of the vote in 2016, for example – so Mr. Torres will become the new House member.
Five weeks after the New York primary and still without numbers being released, Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-Manhattan) declared victory yesterday, saying she will be re-nominated by at least 3,700 votes. New York City officials report that over 95,000 absentee ballots have been counted, but such is not the entire allotment. Ms. Maloney’s opponent, business executive Suraj Patel did not dispute the count but is still a plaintiff in a lawsuit asking for court intervention to count every ballot regardless of when it was postmarked or received by county authorities.
On election night, with just under 40,000 ballots counted, Ms. Maloney’s margin was below 700 votes. She predicted the absentee votes would heavily be in her favor and it appears her analysis was correct. Assuming her preliminary primary victory holds, the Congresswoman will easily win the general election.
Public Policy Polling, surveying for the 314 Action Fund, an independent expenditure committee supporting Democratic congressional nominee Nancy Goroff, released a study (7/14-15; 1,100 NY-1 voters) that finds three-term Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-Shirley/Smithtown) leading Ms. Goroff, 47-40%. The 1st District leans Republican but has been known to flip in wave election years.
Though it became clear on primary election night (June 23rd) that challenger Jamaal Bowman was going to deny veteran Rep. Eliot Engel (D-Bronx) re-nomination, the declaration has finally been made almost a month after the primary election. Though all ballots have still not been counted, Mr. Bowman has a 56-40% lead over Congressman Engel, meaning not enough votes remain for the latter man to close the gap.
With Messrs. Bowman and Mondaire Jones (open NY-17) both being declared winners in their respective campaigns, the only outstanding race is in NYC’s 12th District where absentee ballots still have not been completed. The margin between Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-Manhattan) and challenger Suraj Patel is tight, but the veteran Congresswoman has the advantage. On Friday, however, Mr. Patel joined a lawsuit asking a federal court to rule that ballots received on or before June 30th be counted irrespective of when they are postmarked. The plaintiffs argue that the mechanized ballots do not show a specific postmark, hence they unequivocally state that everything received at the end of June should be opened and counted.
The New York primary was June 23rd, and we still don’t have final results, nor declared winners in several congressional nomination races. New York election officials in New York City refuse to say when the counting process will end, and numbers released.
It does appear in the Upstate that former Millbrook Village Trustee Kyle Van De Water has defeated fashion company owner Ola Hawatmeh. The absentee ballots have erased Ms. Hawatmeh’s lead on election night, and he is now ahead 57-43%, a margin that will clinch the primary for him. Mr. Van De Water now faces freshman Rep. Antonio Delgado (D-Rhinebeck) in the general election. Though still ostensibly a Republican district, Rep. Delgado is the clear favorite for re-election.
With absentee ballots finally being counted and reported in New York 16 days after the state’s primary on June 23rd, one race has already changed from the early tabulated votes. Yesterday, 2018 Democratic nominee Perry Gershon, who held Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-Shirley) to a 51-47% re-election victory, conceded defeat in this year’s Democratic primary. The winner, by just over 600 votes, is college professor Nancy Goroff who will now advance into the general election.
The result is a surprise, as Mr. Gershon who raised and spent over $5 million in the last campaign, almost $2 million of which was his own money, was considered a distinct favorite to again win the party nomination. Rep. Zeldin was favored for re-election against Mr. Gershon, even though their first race was close. Against Ms. Goroff, Rep. Zeldin appears to be in even better position.
New York City election officials say they won’t even start counting absentee ballots until sometime next week. While some Upstate counties are moving quicker, Long Island election officials claim it could take more than two weeks before they are ready to release even unofficial final returns. Several races remain uncalled, and there is a good chance the state will take a month to finally certify their general election nominees.
iA heavy primary ballot is far from complete as absentee ballots will decide several races. It is clear, however, that state Sen. Chris Jacobs (R-Buffalo) won the 27th District special election and will be sworn into the current House of Representatives. He defeated former Grand Island Town Supervisor Nate McMurray, 69-29%, to take the seat and replace resigned Rep. Chris Collins (R). Mr. Jacobs then easily won the Republican primary for the regular term, defeating two GOP opponents.
Though many votes remain to be counted, 16-term Rep. Eliot Engel (D-Bronx) has lost his seat as former middle school principal Jamaal Bowman records a 61-34% lead among the counted vote, which should give him an insurmountable margin. Mr. Engel will join Reps. Dan Lipinski (D-IL), Steve King (R-IA), and Denver Riggleman (R-VA), who have already been denied re-nomination in the 2020 election cycle. In Manhattan, Rep. Carolyn Maloney has only a 648 vote lead in her primary contest against hotel executive Suraj Patel, meaning absentee ballots will decide the outcome here.
In the two Bronx area open seats, New York City Councilman Ritchie Torres has a wide lead in the multi-candidate battle to replace retiring Rep. Jose Serrano (D-Bronx), while attorney Mondaire Jones posts a 2:1 margin over his closest Democratic opponent in the Bronx/Westchester County district to replace retiring Rep. Nita Lowey (D-Harrison).
Freshman Representative and national political figure Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-Bronx) easily won her re-nomination battle with 70% of the vote.
The Rundown Blog
Before you vote, learn more about the candidates who will support a pro-jobs America.