One of the 2018 New York primary night surprises was Rep. Yvette Clarke’s (D-Brooklyn) scant victory over Brooklyn Community Board member Adem Bunkeddeko, 53-37%. Her challenger returns for this year’s June 23rd primary, but yesterday New York City Councilman Chaim Deutsch also joined the battle for the party nomination.
With Rep. Clarke and Mr. Bunkeddeko potentially splitting the district’s dominant black vote, Councilman Deutsch may not only have enough support to deny the incumbent re-nomination, but he could conceivably win the party nod. Coalescing the white, Jewish, and less liberal voters, Mr. Deutsch could cobble together a large enough coalition to potentially win a close primary campaign. While having several opponents – four other minor candidates are also in the race – generally helps a weakened incumbent, in this case the larger field could be detrimental to Rep. Clarke.
Now that Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) has signaled he will schedule the special election to replace resigned Rep. Chris Collins (R) to run concurrently with the April 28th presidential primary election, Republican Party leaders are beginning to consider who they will choose as their nominee. Under New York election law, the local party chairmen choose nominees for special elections instead of holding a primary election.
Democrats have already coalesced around former Grand Island Town Supervisor Nate McMurray, the 2018 congressional nominee who held Rep. Collins to a 48-47% victory. Vying for Republican county chairmen support are state Sens. Chris Jacobs (R-Buffalo) and Rob Ortt (R-Tonawanda), attorney Beth Parlato, and historian Frank Smierciak. Now, as expected, Erie County Comptroller Stefan Mychajliw announced that he will also add his name for consideration. The chairmen from the eight counties that comprise the 27th District will determine the schedule to field a nominee, but we can expect a quick process now that we see a definitive election calendar emerging.
Former Rep. Rick Lazio (R-NY), who challenged Hillary Clinton for the Senate when she first ran in 2000, says he will not attempt a political comeback this year in the seat from which veteran Rep. Peter King (R-Seaford) is retiring. Mr. Lazio, who defeated then-Rep. Tom Downey in 1992 and would serve four full terms in the House, has been away from elective office for what will be 18 years at the time of the upcoming election.
Still a long way from the April 2nd candidate filing deadline for the June 23rd state primary, five Republicans and five Democrats have already announced their candidacies. None of the Democrats are elected officials with the exception of Babylon Town Councilwoman Jackie Gordon who was already a candidate before Mr. King announced he would not seek re-election. For the Republicans, two state Assemblymen and two local officials comprise most of the candidate field. The seat leans Republican, but we can expect a competitive open general election.
Reports are emanating from Albany that indicates Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) will schedule the special election to replace resigned Rep. Chris Collins (R) concurrently with the state’s April 28th presidential primary. Under New York law, the political parties will choose their own nominees through votes of the county chairmen whose entities comprise the CD. In this case, all or parts of eight Upstate counties are part of District 27. The winner of the April 28th election will take the seat immediately to serve the balance of the current term. The new House member would then be eligible to run for a full term in the June 23rd state primary and of course in the general election.
The US Census Bureau officers released their latest population projections in order to measure national population growth for the period between July 1, 2018 and July 1, 2019. The results find the national rate of growth slowing to 0.5%, mostly as a result of decreased immigration. The peak period for the decade came during the July 1, 2014 – July 1, 2015 period when the growth rate registered 0.73%.
With these numbers come the ability to project which states will gain and lose congressional seats in 2020 reapportionment. The national reapportionment will be calculated and announced after the 2020 census is completed. The states will receive their congressional seat quota a year from now, with a release typically coming during the period between Christmas and New Year’s.
If current projections prove correct, Texas looks to gain three seats, Florida two, with Arizona, Colorado, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon each slated to gain one. The losing states look to be Alabama, California, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and West Virginia.
If these projections prove true, California will lose a seat for the first time in history. It’s also realistic that the actual totals could yield a two-seat loss for Illinois or New York, and possibly both. Right now, it appears ten congressional seats will change states, but that number could grow. Usually, the actual numbers tend to differ slightly from the early published projections.
Saying she wants to devote her political time to helping President Trump win a second term, daughter-in-law Lara Trump said yesterday that she will not enter the Republican primary to succeed retiring Rep. Peter King (R-Seaford) on Long Island’s 2nd District. Both state Assemblymen Anthony Garbarino (R-Bayport) and Mike LiPetri (R-Massapequa) are announced GOP candidates, however. Babylon Town Councilwoman Jackie Gordon appears to be the leading Democrat in the large candidate field. We expect a competitive general election to develop in this open district.
A new name is emerging as a potential replacement for retiring Long Island Rep. Peter King (R-Seaford). A recent poll that the Club for Growth sponsored (WPA Intelligence; 11/17-18; 400 NY-2 likely Republican primary voters) finds Lara Trump, wife of President Trump’s son Eric, as a highly viable candidate.
According to the WPAi data, Ms. Trump would outpace former US Rep. Rick Lazio (R) by a whopping 53-19% in a Republican primary. For her part, Ms. Trump is quoted as saying her focus is on working to re-elect her father-in-law for a second term, but also didn’t explicitly rule out running for the seat.
Siena College released a rare survey of the New York Democratic electorate (11/12-18; 380 NY registered Democratic voters) and finds former Vice President Joe Biden putting distance between he and the rest of the Democratic field. Here, Biden is at 24% preference, with Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Bernie Sanders (I-VT) trailing with 14 and 13 percent. No other candidate, including Mayor Pete Buttigieg, even reaches the 5% plateau. The New York presidential primary is scheduled for April 28th. With 273 first ballot delegates, the Empire State delegation will be the second largest at the Democratic National Convention.
Fourteen-term New York Congressman Peter King (R-Seaford/Islip) announced yesterday morning that he will not seek re-election next year. Mr. King, a former chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee when the Republicans held the majority, was re-elected with just over 53% of the vote in 2018 against a Democratic opponent who spent just under $2 million for her campaign. The Congressman has averaged 55.4% over his long career through various iterations of the 2nd or 3rd District, as it was previously numbered.
Mr. King’s retirement now means 32 seats will be open in the next election, including four that will go to special election before the regular cycle concludes. A crowded 2nd District candidate field is expected to form in both parties. The seat generally votes in a lean Republican fashion. President Trump carried the seat, 53-44%, but neither Mitt Romney nor John McCain won here during their respective presidential campaigns.
It appears we may not have heard the end of Michael Bloomberg’s 2020 presidential effort. On the last day of candidate filing in Alabama, Mr. Bloomberg placed his name into contention for the state’s March 3rd Super Tuesday presidential primary. This does not necessarily mean that Mr. Bloomberg will actually become a national candidate, but he has certainly taken the first step toward doing so. In filing, the former New York City Mayor and media mogul said he does not feel the current Democratic field is well enough positioned to defeat President Trump.
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