The New York primary was June 23rd, and we still don’t have final results, nor declared winners in several congressional nomination races. New York election officials in New York City refuse to say when the counting process will end, and numbers released.
It does appear in the Upstate that former Millbrook Village Trustee Kyle Van De Water has defeated fashion company owner Ola Hawatmeh. The absentee ballots have erased Ms. Hawatmeh’s lead on election night, and he is now ahead 57-43%, a margin that will clinch the primary for him. Mr. Van De Water now faces freshman Rep. Antonio Delgado (D-Rhinebeck) in the general election. Though still ostensibly a Republican district, Rep. Delgado is the clear favorite for re-election.
With absentee ballots finally being counted and reported in New York 16 days after the state’s primary on June 23rd, one race has already changed from the early tabulated votes. Yesterday, 2018 Democratic nominee Perry Gershon, who held Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-Shirley) to a 51-47% re-election victory, conceded defeat in this year’s Democratic primary. The winner, by just over 600 votes, is college professor Nancy Goroff who will now advance into the general election.
The result is a surprise, as Mr. Gershon who raised and spent over $5 million in the last campaign, almost $2 million of which was his own money, was considered a distinct favorite to again win the party nomination. Rep. Zeldin was favored for re-election against Mr. Gershon, even though their first race was close. Against Ms. Goroff, Rep. Zeldin appears to be in even better position.
New York City election officials say they won’t even start counting absentee ballots until sometime next week. While some Upstate counties are moving quicker, Long Island election officials claim it could take more than two weeks before they are ready to release even unofficial final returns. Several races remain uncalled, and there is a good chance the state will take a month to finally certify their general election nominees.
iA heavy primary ballot is far from complete as absentee ballots will decide several races. It is clear, however, that state Sen. Chris Jacobs (R-Buffalo) won the 27th District special election and will be sworn into the current House of Representatives. He defeated former Grand Island Town Supervisor Nate McMurray, 69-29%, to take the seat and replace resigned Rep. Chris Collins (R). Mr. Jacobs then easily won the Republican primary for the regular term, defeating two GOP opponents.
Though many votes remain to be counted, 16-term Rep. Eliot Engel (D-Bronx) has lost his seat as former middle school principal Jamaal Bowman records a 61-34% lead among the counted vote, which should give him an insurmountable margin. Mr. Engel will join Reps. Dan Lipinski (D-IL), Steve King (R-IA), and Denver Riggleman (R-VA), who have already been denied re-nomination in the 2020 election cycle. In Manhattan, Rep. Carolyn Maloney has only a 648 vote lead in her primary contest against hotel executive Suraj Patel, meaning absentee ballots will decide the outcome here.
In the two Bronx area open seats, New York City Councilman Ritchie Torres has a wide lead in the multi-candidate battle to replace retiring Rep. Jose Serrano (D-Bronx), while attorney Mondaire Jones posts a 2:1 margin over his closest Democratic opponent in the Bronx/Westchester County district to replace retiring Rep. Nita Lowey (D-Harrison).
Freshman Representative and national political figure Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-Bronx) easily won her re-nomination battle with 70% of the vote.
Voters in New York, North Carolina, and Virginia will choose congressional nominees in various districts today. New York hosts the most competitive slate, with ten competitive primaries coming to culmination.
The vacant 27th District will be filled in a special election between state Sen. Chris Jacobs (R-Buffalo) and Democratic former Grand Island town official Nate McMurray.
The competitive incumbent challenges to Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-Bronx) and Eliot Engel (D-Bronx) will also produce a nominee along with lesser challenges to Reps. Yvette Clarke (D-Brooklyn), Jerrold Nadler (D-Manhattan), and Carolyn Maloney (D-Manhattan). Key open seat primaries will be held in the 15th (Rep. Jose Serrano-D, retiring) and the 17th (Rep. Nita Lowey-D, retiring) districts, both featuring crowded fields. The Republicans will also choose a successor to retiring Rep. Peter King (R-Seaford).
Western North Carolina voters will replace now White House chief of staff Mark Meadows on their state’s 11th District November ballot. Former local county Republican chair Lynda Bennett and real estate investment company owner Madison Cawthorn will square off in the postponed Republican runoff election.
In Virginia’s 5th District, Democrats will choose their nominee to oppose former Campbell County Supervisor Bob Good (R), the man who denied freshman Rep. Denver Riggleman (R-Manassas) re-nomination in the June 13th Republican district convention.
Veteran Rep. Eliot Engel (D-Bronx) is in trouble for his June 23rd Democratic primary showdown with former middle school principal Jamaal Bowman, a new Data for Progress survey reveals. The poll, conducted for the Bowman campaign (released 6/17; 525 NY-16 likely Democratic primary voters) gives the challenger a 41-31% lead over Rep. Engel, and a whopping 52-36% advantage when leaners are added.
The Engel campaign spokesperson responded that the poll was flawed because it did not list the other two Democratic candidates in the primary race, while their own internal Global Strategy Group survey posts the Congressman to an eight-point lead. The Engel campaign, however, refused to make their poll public. It appears the 16th District race is becoming the contest to watch on Tuesday night.
Public Policy Polling, surveying for the Greenburgh Town Democratic Committee (6/15-16; 1,141 likely NY-17 Democratic primary voters via interactive response device) finds attorney Mondaire Jones taking the lead for Tuesday’s open seat Democratic primary that features a field of eight Democratic candidates.
According to PPP, Mr. Jones takes 25% of the congressional primary vote followed by self-funding attorney Adam Schleifer and ex-Defense Department official Evelyn Farkas trailing with 14% apiece. Another poll’s previous leader, state Sen. David Carlucci (D-New City/Ossining) drops to 11% support.
Last week’s Data for Progress survey found Carlucci leading the pack with 15%, followed by Schleifer and Farkas at 13%, and Jones closely trailing with 12 percent. Tuesday promises to yield a close finish. The Democratic winner will become to prohibitive favorite to replace retiring Rep. Nita Lowey (D-Harrison) in the general election.
In a Democratic primary race that is becoming more competitive everyday between veteran Rep. Eliot Engel (D-Bronx) and former middle school principal Jamaal Bowman, two familiar Democratic foes made recent endorsements and, not surprisingly, chose different sides. Former Secretary of State and 2016 presidential nominee Hillary Clinton yesterday announced her support for Rep. Engel, while Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), as we know a two-time presidential candidate, publicly backs Mr. Bowman. The New York primary is next Tuesday, June 23rd.
More evidence is coming from New York City that former middle school principal Jamaal Bowman is a serious Democratic primary threat to 16-term veteran Rep. Eliot Engel (D-Bronx). The pre-primary filing period that closed June 3rd shows Mr. Bowman actually bringing in more money than Rep. Engel during the period, $431,000 to $389,000. Congressman Engel, however, still dominates the cash-on-hand column $826,000 to $345,000.
Both candidates are turning up the heat against their political opponent. Mr. Bowman has released a new digital and cable ad that again shows Engel saying he “wouldn’t care (about speaking to the Bronx Borough meeting) if he wasn’t in a primary,” while the Congressman is now hitting Bowman in mailings to Democrats.
The Engel attacks say Bowman wasn’t even a member of the Democratic Party until 2018, and the veteran Representative accuses his opponent of not being a “real Democrat” because he was a member of the Independence Party when the entity supported John McCain over Barack Obama in 2008.
Rep. Engel is also attacking Bowman’s record as an educator. The New York City Department of Education test score report found that Bowman’s school proficiency rating for its students reached only 25% in mathematics and 37% for English.
It is obvious from the latest attack strategy that internal polling is showing this race as close, though no public polling is available. The New York primary is June 23rd.
The battle to succeed veteran Rep. Nita Lowey (D-Harrison/White Plains), who is retiring after what will be 16 congressional terms, has drawn eight Democratic candidates. A new Data for Progress poll (released 6/4; 302 NY-17 likely Democratic primary voters) suggests that at least four of the candidates have a chance to win the June 23rd primary election. The eventual Democratic nominee is a lock in the general election.
According to the DFP survey, state Senator David Carlucci (D-Ossining) has taken a slight lead over former Obama Defense Department official Evelyn Farkas, ex-federal prosecutor Adam Schleifer, and attorney Mondaire Jones. The ballot test breaks 15-13-13-12% for Carlucci over Farkas, Schleifer, and Jones. Among the 38% who said they were undecided, Sen. Carlucci attracts 16% when asked to which candidate the respondent might be leaning, far ahead of any other even though he is one of the lesser fundraisers.
Sen. Carlucci is one of five members of the Independent Democratic Caucus who voted to keep Republican leadership for the previous state Senate session. Therefore, the crowded field allows him to attract the less liberal voter in the Westchester and Rockland County region, which may open a surprising path to the nomination.
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