Yesterday, Sen. Doug Jones (D), the most vulnerable Democrat on the US Senate ballot next year, reported his 3rd Quarter receipts and the total is impressive. Sen. Jones raised $2 million during the previous twelve weeks and has more than $5 million cash-on-hand. Reports have yet to surface from his key Republican opponents, Rep. Bradley Byrne (R-Mobile), Secretary of State John Merrill, former Auburn University head football coach Tommy Tuberville, and ex-state Supreme Court Chief Justice and 2017 GOP Senate nominee Roy Moore.
The eventual Republican nominee will be favored, but it is clear that Sen. Jones is not going to easily relinquish his seat.
Former state Attorney General Troy King (R) just released the results of his open seat 2nd District poll in the battle to succeed retiring Rep. Martha Roby (R-Montgomery). Mr. King’s internal Tarrance Group survey (released 10/7; 303 AL-2 likely Republican primary voters) gives Mr. King a large lead, 34-18-17%, over former state Representative and 2018 congressional candidate Barry Moore and state Rep. Will Dismukes (R-Prattville). No other candidate even reaches double digits. Considering that Mr. King is a prominent former statewide office holder, the results are not particularly surprising.
The Republican nomination contest will decide who wins the seat in November because the district is safely in the GOP column. Alabama is one of the states that moved its primary to run concurrently with the March 3rd Super Tuesday presidential primary, so the candidates are operating in a relatively short election cycle. If no candidate receives majority support, likely in a multi-candidate field, a run-off will be held on April 14th.
The first Alabama name politician has filed an open 2nd District congressional campaign committee with the Federal Election Commission. Former state Attorney General Troy King (R) appears headed to joining the race and will be rated as one of the favorites to capture the Republican nomination. The GOP nomination process will basically be the election since AL-2 is a safely Republican seat. Five-term Rep. Martha Roby (R-Montgomery) is retiring.
State Rep. John Rogers (D-Birmingham) has ended his Democratic primary challenge to US Sen. Doug Jones saying he does not have the resources to compete with the incumbent. The primary challenge was never viewed as particularly serious, but now it will not even be an irritant. Sen. Jones will face a very difficult general re-election, however, against the eventual Republican nominee in a state that will be one of President Trump’s strongest domains.
The WPA Intelligence organization tested the open Alabama 1st District Republican primary that will be decided on March 3rd, concurrent with the state’s presidential primary. According to the poll (7/23-24; 400 AL-1 likely Republican primary voters) former state Sen. Bill Hightower scores 34% followed by state Rep. Curt Pringle (R-Mobile) with 16%, and Mobile County Commissioner Jerry Carl posting 12% preference.
The data suggests that the primary race will end in the top two finishers advancing into an April 14th run-off election. The eventual Republican nominee will become a prohibitive favorite for the general election. The seat is open because Rep. Bradley Byrne (R-Mobile) is running for the Senate.
Five-term Rep. Martha Roby (R-Montgomery) announced on Friday that she will not seek a sixth term next year, releasing a statement that thanked her family and the people of the 2nd District for supporting her throughout the decade. Ms. Roby is the third GOP House member during the week to announce that their current congressional term will be their last. Reps. Paul Mitchell (R-MI) and Pete Olson (R-TX) also made their declarations last week.
Alabama’s 2nd District is safely Republican (Trump ’16: 65-33%; Romney ’12: 63-36%) so there is little chance of this becoming a competitive general election seat. But, we can expect a multi-candidate GOP primary to occur on March 3rd with a likely run-off between the top two finishers to follow on April 14th.
Two weeks ago, former Auburn University head football coach Tommy Tuberville conducted an internal Moore Information poll that projected him as the Republican primary leader. Now, we see independent Cygnal polling confirming that result.
In their new survey (6/22-23; 612 AL likely Republican primary voters) Mr. Tuberville leads Rep. Bradley Byrne (R-Mobile), 29-21%. Following is former state Supreme Court Chief Justice and 2017 US Senate nominee Roy Moore with 13%, with newly announced candidate John Merrill, the current Secretary of State, posting 12% support. The eventual winner faces Sen. Doug Jones (D) in the general election. The Alabama primary is March 3rd. If no candidate receives majority support a run-off between the top two finishers will be held on April 14th.
As expected for the past several weeks, Alabama Secretary of State John Merrill joined the Republican field of US Senate candidates hoping to win the party nomination to oppose Sen. Doug Jones (D). Mr. Merrill, the only current statewide elected official of the challenging group, will face US Rep. Bradley Byrne (R-Mobile), former Auburn head football coach Tommy Tuberville, former state Supreme Court Chief Justice and 2017 Senate nominee Roy Moore, and state Rep. Arnold Mooney (R-Shelby County).
In terms of determining the Senate majority in the next election, this race could be the most important. Should the Republicans take this seat back and move their majority number to 54, it will become very difficult for the Democrats to convert enough GOP seats to establish their own new majority.
Former state Supreme Court Chief Judge Roy Moore returned to elective politics yesterday in announcing his second bid for the US Senate. We will remember that Judge Moore lost the special Senate election to current incumbent Doug Jones (D) in late 2017.
For the 2020 election cycle, Judge Moore’s chances are poor. While he may have enough support to slip into a run-off, in a one-on-one contest he will likely not have enough political strength to upend either Rep. Bradley Byrne (R-Mobile), former Auburn University head football coach Tommy Tuberville, or Secretary of State John Merrill.
The Alabama primary is scheduled concurrently with the presidential primary on March 3rd. If no one receives majority support, which is a likelihood, the top two finishers will run-off on April 14th.
Yesterday, Alabama Secretary of State John Merrill announced that he will officially join the Republican US Senate primary. Already in the race are US Rep. Bradley Byrne (R-Mobile), former Auburn University head football coach Tommy Tuberville, and state Rep. Arnold Mooney (R-Shelby County).
By tomorrow, we will know if former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore will also become a player in the Senate Republican primary. Mr. Moore has scheduled a speech tomorrow but is not hinting whether it will be a candidacy announcement or if he will bypass making another run. The eventual Republican nominee faces Democratic Sen. Doug Jones. The Alabama primary is scheduled concurrently with the presidential primary on March 3rd, with a run-off, if necessary, on April 14th.
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