The WPA Intelligence organization tested the open Alabama 1st District Republican primary that will be decided on March 3rd, concurrent with the state’s presidential primary. According to the poll (7/23-24; 400 AL-1 likely Republican primary voters) former state Sen. Bill Hightower scores 34% followed by state Rep. Curt Pringle (R-Mobile) with 16%, and Mobile County Commissioner Jerry Carl posting 12% preference.
The data suggests that the primary race will end in the top two finishers advancing into an April 14th run-off election. The eventual Republican nominee will become a prohibitive favorite for the general election. The seat is open because Rep. Bradley Byrne (R-Mobile) is running for the Senate.
Five-term Rep. Martha Roby (R-Montgomery) announced on Friday that she will not seek a sixth term next year, releasing a statement that thanked her family and the people of the 2nd District for supporting her throughout the decade. Ms. Roby is the third GOP House member during the week to announce that their current congressional term will be their last. Reps. Paul Mitchell (R-MI) and Pete Olson (R-TX) also made their declarations last week.
Alabama’s 2nd District is safely Republican (Trump ’16: 65-33%; Romney ’12: 63-36%) so there is little chance of this becoming a competitive general election seat. But, we can expect a multi-candidate GOP primary to occur on March 3rd with a likely run-off between the top two finishers to follow on April 14th.
Two weeks ago, former Auburn University head football coach Tommy Tuberville conducted an internal Moore Information poll that projected him as the Republican primary leader. Now, we see independent Cygnal polling confirming that result.
In their new survey (6/22-23; 612 AL likely Republican primary voters) Mr. Tuberville leads Rep. Bradley Byrne (R-Mobile), 29-21%. Following is former state Supreme Court Chief Justice and 2017 US Senate nominee Roy Moore with 13%, with newly announced candidate John Merrill, the current Secretary of State, posting 12% support. The eventual winner faces Sen. Doug Jones (D) in the general election. The Alabama primary is March 3rd. If no candidate receives majority support a run-off between the top two finishers will be held on April 14th.
As expected for the past several weeks, Alabama Secretary of State John Merrill joined the Republican field of US Senate candidates hoping to win the party nomination to oppose Sen. Doug Jones (D). Mr. Merrill, the only current statewide elected official of the challenging group, will face US Rep. Bradley Byrne (R-Mobile), former Auburn head football coach Tommy Tuberville, former state Supreme Court Chief Justice and 2017 Senate nominee Roy Moore, and state Rep. Arnold Mooney (R-Shelby County).
In terms of determining the Senate majority in the next election, this race could be the most important. Should the Republicans take this seat back and move their majority number to 54, it will become very difficult for the Democrats to convert enough GOP seats to establish their own new majority.
Former state Supreme Court Chief Judge Roy Moore returned to elective politics yesterday in announcing his second bid for the US Senate. We will remember that Judge Moore lost the special Senate election to current incumbent Doug Jones (D) in late 2017.
For the 2020 election cycle, Judge Moore’s chances are poor. While he may have enough support to slip into a run-off, in a one-on-one contest he will likely not have enough political strength to upend either Rep. Bradley Byrne (R-Mobile), former Auburn University head football coach Tommy Tuberville, or Secretary of State John Merrill.
The Alabama primary is scheduled concurrently with the presidential primary on March 3rd. If no one receives majority support, which is a likelihood, the top two finishers will run-off on April 14th.
Yesterday, Alabama Secretary of State John Merrill announced that he will officially join the Republican US Senate primary. Already in the race are US Rep. Bradley Byrne (R-Mobile), former Auburn University head football coach Tommy Tuberville, and state Rep. Arnold Mooney (R-Shelby County).
By tomorrow, we will know if former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore will also become a player in the Senate Republican primary. Mr. Moore has scheduled a speech tomorrow but is not hinting whether it will be a candidacy announcement or if he will bypass making another run. The eventual Republican nominee faces Democratic Sen. Doug Jones. The Alabama primary is scheduled concurrently with the presidential primary on March 3rd, with a run-off, if necessary, on April 14th.
Former Auburn University head football coach Tommy Tuberville made public his Moore Information survey (6/10-11; 650 AL likely Republican primary voters) and it reveals, somewhat surprisingly, that the first-time candidate is jumping out to a slight lead. Moore Info reports that Mr. Tuberville posts 23% preference, five points ahead of former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore, while Rep. Bradley Byrne (R-Mobile) trails at 16 percent. Secretary of State John Merrill, a potential candidate, recorded 7% support, and state Rep. Arnold Mooney (R-Shelby County) was last at 2 percent.
The favorability ratings suggest that Judge Moore would lose a runoff election to Tuberville, and possibly to any of the others. While the retired coach posted a 49:18% positive to negative ratio, Judge Moore was upside down at 38:49%.
For weeks speculation has been rampant that former state Supreme Court Chief Justice and 2017 failed US Senate candidate Roy Moore is contemplating another run next year. Mr. Moore now confirms that he is considering again becoming a statewide federal candidate and says he will make a decision in the next few weeks.
President Trump has publicly urged Judge Moore not to run, and his input has proven definitive in many Republican primaries. Already in the race are US Rep. Bradley Byrne (R-Mobile), former Auburn University football coach Tommy Tuberville, state Auditor Jim Zeigler, and state Rep. Arnold Mooney (R-Indian Springs/Birmingham). The latter man was chairman of Rep. Mo Brooks’ (R-Huntsville) 2017 Senate campaign and decided to run himself when the Congressman announced he would not launch another statewide campaign next year.
Former US Senator and Attorney General Jeff Sessions (R) is re-emerging. Originally stating that he wanted to get away to the Alabama woods for a while when asked if he would consider entering the 2020 Senate primary, Mr. Sessions may now be issuing different signals. This week, he responded that he is “interested in the issues” when asked about the Senate race, prompting some to surmise that Mr. Sessions has not necessarily ruled out becoming a candidate.
While US Rep. Mo Brooks (R-Huntsville) said on Friday that he would not be a Senate candidate next year, the man who chaired his 2017 special election Senate campaign, state Rep. Arnold Mooney (R-Indian Springs Village), announced that he will join the emerging field of candidates.
The expanding field makes former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore coming back to the 2020 race after his 2017 campaign debacle more likely. In a crowded field, like in the previous race, Judge Moore’s strong base could propel him into a run-off election.
The current candidate lineup includes Rep. Bradley Byrne (R-Mobile), state Auditor Jim Zeigler, former Auburn University head football coach Tommy Tuberville, and possibly Secretary of State John Merrill (R) in addition to Rep. Mooney. The eventual Republican nominee faces first-term incumbent Doug Jones (D) in what is becoming a must-win race for the GOP.
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