Primaries and runoffs are still on the political horizon, but July is a light electoral month. Tomorrow, the postponed New Jersey statewide primary will be held, and a new extensive mail voting procedure will be tested as all registered voters were sent a live ballot. The Delaware stand-alone presidential primary will also be conducted. The regular statewide Delaware primary is the latest in the nation, scheduled for September 15th. Stand-alone presidential primaries will also be held this month in Louisiana (7/11) and Puerto Rico (7/12).
July 14th hosts runoff elections in Alabama and Texas. The important US Senate Republican contest between retired Auburn University head football coach Tommy Tuberville and ex-US Attorney General and former Senator Jeff Sessions will be finally be decided that day. Runoffs in the open 1st and 2nd Congressional Districts will also send contestants to the respective general elections in what should be safe Republican seats. The original Alabama runoff election date was March 31st.
Texas holds a US Senate Democratic runoff and 15 House secondary elections postponed from May 26th. From the latter group, nine Republican contests and six Democratic electoral events will finally determine general election participants. The Texas and Alabama primaries were held all the way back on March 3rd.
Maine holds its postponed primary also on July 14th. State House Speaker Sara Gideon is a heavy favorite to win the Democratic US Senate nomination to face incumbent Susan Collins (R). Three credible Republicans are vying for the opportunity of challenging freshman Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) in what is likely to be a competitive 2nd District general election campaign.
Last week as we reported, the Cygnal research group released survey data (6/13-16; 560 AL likely general election voters) that found retired Auburn University head football coach Tommy Tuberville (R) leading Sen. Doug Jones (D), 50-36%, and former US Attorney General and Sen. Jeff Sessions (R) holding a 45-35% advantage over the first-term Senator. The postponed GOP runoff will be decided July 14th.
At the end of last week, the Democratic firm ALG Research (6/18-22; 600 AL likely general election voters) countered with figures showing a much closer race, though still posting both Tuberville and Sessions ahead of Jones. ALG finds Mr. Tuberville holding a 47-44% general election lead, while Mr. Sessions’ edge was a similar 45-43 percent.
Retired Auburn University head football coach Tommy Tuberville (R) would easily unseat Sen. Doug Jones (D) according to a recently released Cygnal political poll of the Alabama electorate. The survey (6/13-16; 530 AL likely voters) gives Mr. Tuberville a 50-36% wide advantage over Sen. Jones, a major improvement from the May FM3 Research survey (5/14-18; 601 AL likely voters) that saw only a 47-44% split. If former US Attorney General and Senator Jeff Sessions were the Republican nominee, he would lead Sen. Jones, 45-35%. The Republican US Senate run-off is July 14th.
Apparently, former US Attorney General and Alabama Senator Jeff Sessions realizes he is not getting back in President Trump’s good graces after the latter man reiterated his strong support for retired Auburn University head football coach Tommy Tuberville in the upcoming Republican Senate runoff election scheduled for July 14th. Mr. Sessions tweeted a response to President Trump that the law required his recusal from the Mueller investigation and that he (Trump) should be grateful the rule of law was preserved; action, he continued, that was principally responsible for the President being exonerated in the Russia investigation.
Previously, Mr. Sessions was attempting to emphasize the positive aspects of his stormy relationship with the President, but that was clearly not translating into a rise in his polling numbers. According to the latest surveys, Mr. Tuberville still maintains a strong lead in the runoff election. The winner faces Sen. Doug Jones (D) in the Fall.
It appears not much has changed since soon after the March 3rd Alabama statewide primary. Retired Auburn University head football coach Tommy Tuberville finished ahead of former US Attorney General and Alabama Sen. Jeff Sessions in the Republican primary, and immediate post-election polling reported that Mr. Tuberville was opening a large lead. Despite the time lag, such still appears to be the case.
The Cygnal polling firm conducted their survey of 607 likely Republican runoff voters over the May 7-10 period and found Mr. Tuberville expanding his lead all the way to 55-32%. At this point, the longer runoff election period – originally the secondary vote was scheduled for March 31 but was moved all the way to July 14th – has not helped the former incumbent. The runoff winner faces Sen. Doug Jones (D) in November.
Progressive left voter groups are expanding their moves to file lawsuits in states that they hope will change the election system to one emphasizing mail voting. New suits have been filed to expand absentee voting options and outreach in Alabama, Connecticut, South Carolina, and Tennessee. The goal of the action is to increase mail voting not only for upcoming primary elections, but for the 2020 general election, as well, and probably beyond.
Gov. Kay Ivey (R) announced yesterday that the state will move the Alabama runoff elections for affected races from March 31st all the way to July 14th as a result of COVID-19 precautions. The move may actually help former US Attorney General and ex-Senator Jeff Sessions rebound in his Republican runoff race with retired Auburn University head football coach Tommy Tuberville. Placing a close second to Tuberville in the March 3rd primary, Mr. Sessions has been consistently trailing in the most recent polling.
The long lag time may now give Sessions the time he needs to re-focus his campaign and forge ahead of Tuberville. The winner challenges Sen. Doug Jones (D) in November.
The runoff decision also affects the Republican and Democratic runoffs in open Congressional District 1, and the GOP secondary election in open Congressional District 2.
Gov. Kay Ivey (R) is researching whether she could postpone the March 31st runoff campaign due to the COVID-19 virus. An Attorney General’s opinion indicates that the state constitution is silent on whether the authority exists to change the election calendar after voting has begun so, for now at least, the March 31st runoff date remains in place.
To be decided in the runoff is the Republican US Senate nomination between retired Auburn University football coach Tommy Tuberville and former US Attorney General and ex-Alabama Senator Jeff Sessions, as well as congressional runoffs for both Republicans and Democrats in open Congressional District 1, and Republicans in open CD 2.
While a series of polls have projected retired Auburn University head football coach Tommy Tuberville as having a definitive lead over former US Attorney General and ex-Alabama Sen. Jeff Sessions in the March 31st Republican runoff election, a group of organizations just announced their support for the latter man. Eagle Forum, the National Rifle Association, and the Alabama Forestry Association all publicly declared their support for Mr. Sessions on Friday. The runoff winner faces Sen. Doug Jones (D) in November.
Yet another in a series of polls testing the Alabama Senate run-off was just released and again produces similar results. This one, however, has a twist. WPA Intelligence (3/4-5; 500 AL likely Republican runoff voters) finds retired Auburn University head football coach Tommy Tuberville leading former US Attorney General and Alabama Senator Jeff Sessions, 49-45%, a margin quite consistent with the other recently released data.
The twist came when WPAi asked if President Trump endorsing Mr. Tuberville would influence their vote. With that overlay, Tuberville’s advantage went to a whopping 58-34%. Soon after this poll’s interview phase was completed but before its release, President Trump did endorse Mr. Tuberville suggesting that the latter man has now firmly established himself as the front runner. The March 31st Republican runoff winner will challenge Sen. Doug Jones (D) in the fall.
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