The Morning Consult research firm conducted a series of surveys and finds Republicans building big leads in two key states and falling into close contests in another pair where they should have a strong advantage.
In Kentucky (7/24-8/2; 793 KY likely voters), the MC data finds Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) recording a 53-36% lead over retired Marine Corps helicopter pilot Amy McGrath (D) who has raised a whopping $47 million+ for her campaign. Alabama GOP nominee Tommy Tuberville likewise holds a major Morning Consult detected advantage over Sen. Doug Jones (D). This poll (7/24-8/2; 609 AL likely voters) projects the retired Auburn University head football coach topping the Democratic incumbent, 52-35%, in what is a must-win conversion race for the GOP.
Morning Consult detects close races in two other states that should be much stronger for the respective Republican incumbent. The South Carolina survey conducted over the same period as the others (741 SC likely voters) finds Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) claiming only a one-point, 44-43%, edge over former South Carolina Democratic Party chair Jaime Harrison, while in Texas, Sen. John Cornyn (R) posts only a six-point margin (2,576 TX likely voters from a pre-determined sample cell; online) over Democrat M.J. Hegar, 44-38%.
Retired Auburn University head football coach Tommy Tuberville easily won the Alabama Republican runoff election last night with a landslide 61-39% victory margin over ex-US Attorney General and former Alabama Senator Jeff Sessions. Mr. Tuberville advances into the general election where he will now challenge Sen. Doug Jones (D) in what has become a must-win for the Republicans in order to hold their Senate majority. This could be the most important indicator race in the country to determine majority status for the next Congress.
Two important House Republican runoffs were decided last night that almost certainly determined who will capture the open seat races in November. In the Mobile anchored 1st District, Mobile County Commissioner Jerry Carl defeated former state Sen. Bill Hightower to win the GOP nomination. He now becomes a prohibitive favorite to defeat the new Democratic nominee, retired Marine Corps non commissioned officer James Everhart who won his party’s runoff last night with a 57-43% majority.
In the southeastern 2nd District, former state Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) recorded a big 60-40% win over moving company owner Jeff Coleman, who outspent the victor by a 5:1 margin. Mr. Moore becomes the prohibitive favorite in November to succeed retiring Rep. Martha Roby (R-Montgomery). Retired educator Phyllis Harvey-Hall won the Democratic nomination outright in the March 3rd primary.
The long-awaited Alabama Republican runoff election is today, and we will soon see if retired Auburn University head football coach Tommy Tuberville or ex-US Attorney General and former Alabama Senator Jeff Sessions will challenge incumbent Doug Jones this November. The latest poll, from Auburn University at Montgomery (7/2-9; 558 AL general election voters; number of Republican runoff voters not disclosed) finds Mr. Tuberville leading Mr. Sessions, 47-31%. While the final margin may not be that wide, all data suggests that Mr. Tuberville is the favorite to win tonight.
Primaries and runoffs are still on the political horizon, but July is a light electoral month. Tomorrow, the postponed New Jersey statewide primary will be held, and a new extensive mail voting procedure will be tested as all registered voters were sent a live ballot. The Delaware stand-alone presidential primary will also be conducted. The regular statewide Delaware primary is the latest in the nation, scheduled for September 15th. Stand-alone presidential primaries will also be held this month in Louisiana (7/11) and Puerto Rico (7/12).
July 14th hosts runoff elections in Alabama and Texas. The important US Senate Republican contest between retired Auburn University head football coach Tommy Tuberville and ex-US Attorney General and former Senator Jeff Sessions will be finally be decided that day. Runoffs in the open 1st and 2nd Congressional Districts will also send contestants to the respective general elections in what should be safe Republican seats. The original Alabama runoff election date was March 31st.
Texas holds a US Senate Democratic runoff and 15 House secondary elections postponed from May 26th. From the latter group, nine Republican contests and six Democratic electoral events will finally determine general election participants. The Texas and Alabama primaries were held all the way back on March 3rd.
Maine holds its postponed primary also on July 14th. State House Speaker Sara Gideon is a heavy favorite to win the Democratic US Senate nomination to face incumbent Susan Collins (R). Three credible Republicans are vying for the opportunity of challenging freshman Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) in what is likely to be a competitive 2nd District general election campaign.
Last week as we reported, the Cygnal research group released survey data (6/13-16; 560 AL likely general election voters) that found retired Auburn University head football coach Tommy Tuberville (R) leading Sen. Doug Jones (D), 50-36%, and former US Attorney General and Sen. Jeff Sessions (R) holding a 45-35% advantage over the first-term Senator. The postponed GOP runoff will be decided July 14th.
At the end of last week, the Democratic firm ALG Research (6/18-22; 600 AL likely general election voters) countered with figures showing a much closer race, though still posting both Tuberville and Sessions ahead of Jones. ALG finds Mr. Tuberville holding a 47-44% general election lead, while Mr. Sessions’ edge was a similar 45-43 percent.
Retired Auburn University head football coach Tommy Tuberville (R) would easily unseat Sen. Doug Jones (D) according to a recently released Cygnal political poll of the Alabama electorate. The survey (6/13-16; 530 AL likely voters) gives Mr. Tuberville a 50-36% wide advantage over Sen. Jones, a major improvement from the May FM3 Research survey (5/14-18; 601 AL likely voters) that saw only a 47-44% split. If former US Attorney General and Senator Jeff Sessions were the Republican nominee, he would lead Sen. Jones, 45-35%. The Republican US Senate run-off is July 14th.
Apparently, former US Attorney General and Alabama Senator Jeff Sessions realizes he is not getting back in President Trump’s good graces after the latter man reiterated his strong support for retired Auburn University head football coach Tommy Tuberville in the upcoming Republican Senate runoff election scheduled for July 14th. Mr. Sessions tweeted a response to President Trump that the law required his recusal from the Mueller investigation and that he (Trump) should be grateful the rule of law was preserved; action, he continued, that was principally responsible for the President being exonerated in the Russia investigation.
Previously, Mr. Sessions was attempting to emphasize the positive aspects of his stormy relationship with the President, but that was clearly not translating into a rise in his polling numbers. According to the latest surveys, Mr. Tuberville still maintains a strong lead in the runoff election. The winner faces Sen. Doug Jones (D) in the Fall.
It appears not much has changed since soon after the March 3rd Alabama statewide primary. Retired Auburn University head football coach Tommy Tuberville finished ahead of former US Attorney General and Alabama Sen. Jeff Sessions in the Republican primary, and immediate post-election polling reported that Mr. Tuberville was opening a large lead. Despite the time lag, such still appears to be the case.
The Cygnal polling firm conducted their survey of 607 likely Republican runoff voters over the May 7-10 period and found Mr. Tuberville expanding his lead all the way to 55-32%. At this point, the longer runoff election period – originally the secondary vote was scheduled for March 31 but was moved all the way to July 14th – has not helped the former incumbent. The runoff winner faces Sen. Doug Jones (D) in November.
Progressive left voter groups are expanding their moves to file lawsuits in states that they hope will change the election system to one emphasizing mail voting. New suits have been filed to expand absentee voting options and outreach in Alabama, Connecticut, South Carolina, and Tennessee. The goal of the action is to increase mail voting not only for upcoming primary elections, but for the 2020 general election, as well, and probably beyond.
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