Survey USA (5/16-19; 530 WA likely voters) tested the August 4th jungle primary in the state of Washington and found Gov. Jay Inslee (D) easily ahead of all potential opponents in his quest for a third term. None of his potential opponents have developed much in the way of statewide name identification, thus leading to Gov. Inslee developing leads of between 22 and 29 points against each of four general election possibilities.
A large slate of candidates will adorn the jungle primary ballot in Washington State on August 4th, with the top two finishers in every election advancing to the general. There is no Senate race in Washington this year, and among the ten House campaigns only two appear competitive.
The 3rd District again features a battle between five-term Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-Battle Ground/Vancouver) and college professor Carolyn Long (D). The Congresswoman won an expensive 2018 campaign with a 53-47% margin.
The open 10th District (Rep. Denny Heck-D running for Lt. Governor) that sits in the Olympia area will likely remain in Democratic hands, but it is unclear who will emerge. Eight Democrats, eight Republicans, and three Independents will be on the jungle primary ballot.
One race that was competitive in 2018 but won’t be in 2020 is in the eastern 5th District. Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Spokane) only faces comedian Chris Armitage (D) this year, and he hasn’t even filed a 2nd Quarter campaign finance disclosure report, meaning virtually no money has been raised.
Gov. Jay Inslee (D), who was one of the first 2020 presidential candidates to exit the national race, is running for a third term in his home state. He is a clear favorite for re-election, but the jungle primary will be interesting. He faces no less than 35 opponents who just completed the candidate filing process on Friday.
While new data finds President Trump a bit below what he might expect to score in Mississippi, the same could be said for former Vice President Joe Biden in a newly released Washington State poll. EMC Research, though conducting the poll over the March 31 – April 6 period (473 WA registered voters), just yesterday made their results public. The data projects Mr. Biden to be holding a 52-39% advantage, slightly below what one might expect in a strongly Democratic state. In 2016, Hillary Clinton carried the state with a 53-37 victory percentage.
Mr. Biden under-performed here in the primary, just nipping Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), 38-37%, even though all of the other major candidates had already exited the race. Though President Trump will not target Washington, the Biden primary performance and this first poll suggests slight political weakness on his part.
Yesterday, we also reported that retiring Washington Rep. Denny Heck (D-Olympia) entered his state’s race for Lt. Governor. Immediately upon the announcement, outgoing incumbent Cyrus Habib (D) made public his endorsement for a successor in office. Mr. Habib formally endorsed state Senate Majority Leader Marko Liias (D-Lynnwood), suggesting that Rep. Heck faces a competitive statewide primary campaign to be settled on August 4th.
Washington Rep. Denny Heck (D-Olympia), who earlier in the year said he would not seek a fifth term in the House because he is frustrated with the federal process, announced yesterday that he will enter this year’s race for Lt. Governor. Incumbent Cyrus Habib (D) has already said he will be retiring from office, thus opening the statewide position. Gov. Jay Inslee (D) will be on the ballot later this year in an attempt at securing a third term.
Former Vice President Joe Biden placed a strong first in Michigan, Mississippi, and Missouri last night, and ran just over six points ahead of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) in Idaho, but looks to have fallen short in North Dakota, and possibly Washington.
Still, the delegate totals accumulated from last night and on Super Tuesday suggest that Mr. Biden is building an insurmountable lead and should effectively wrap up the presidential nomination next week when voters in Arizona, Florida, Illinois, and Ohio go to the polls. The former VP has strong polling leads in each of those places.
Before Super Tuesday, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) seemed to have a lock on first position for the Washington State primary, but no longer. Two new polls, one from Survey USA (3/4-6; 550 WA likely Democratic primary voters) and Data for Progress (3/4-5; 737 WA likely Democratic primary voters) project former Vice President Joe Biden now taking the lead just before tomorrow’s primary vote.
Understanding that Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) was still in the race when these polls were taken, and her withdrawal will have an effect upon the final Washington result, S-USA found Mr. Biden taking a bare 36-35% lead over Sen. Sanders with Sen. Warren receiving 10% support. Data for Progress projected Biden with a 47-44% edge, and Warren getting only a 5% preference factor.
Survey USA, polling for KING-TV in Seattle, ran a poll of the upcoming Washington gubernatorial race (1/26-28; 1,103 WA registered voters) and finds two-term Gov. Jay Inslee (D), who was an original presidential candidate, clearly leading the race but only with a rather tepid 39% support base. The next closest opponent barely tops double digits, as conservative anti-tax activist Tim Eyman, listed as an Independent candidate, had 11%. None of the potential Republican candidates broke even 5% support.
Since this poll was taken, Mr. Eyman announced that he will compete as a Republican. Though Gov. Inslee is showing weakness, the competition level suggests he will easily be re-elected for a third term. The Washington candidate filing deadline is May 15th for the August 4th jungle primary election. The top two candidates, regardless of percentage and political affiliation, will advance to the general election.
Just the second publicly released poll of the Washington State Democratic electorate comes from Survey USA (1/26-28; 536 WA likely Democratic primary voters) and, like in 2016, the numbers project Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) to an advantage. Here, Sen. Sanders places first with 26% over former Vice President Joe Biden (21%), Sen. Elizabeth Warren (16%), and former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg (12%). In single digits are former Mayor Pete Buttigieg (8%), businessman Andrew Yang (4%), Sen. Amy Klobuchar (3%), and billionaire Tom Steyer (2%).
The Washington primary is scheduled for March 10th. Previously, Evergreen State voters chose delegates in a caucus system. In 2016, Sen. Sanders defeated Hillary Clinton here, 63-23%, with the remaining delegates going to the convention as uncommitted votes. In 2020, Washington will have 89 first ballot delegates, so this is a significant state and the second largest behind Michigan of the six domains that will vote on that particular day.
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