Last week, former three-time World Series champion pitcher Curt Schilling indicated that he was considering running in an Arizona congressional district. This week, Mr. Schilling, who pitched for the Arizona Diamondbacks and attended high school and college in the state, said if he does run it will be against Rep. Tom O’Halleran (D-Sedona) in the expansive 1st Congressional District that encompasses almost all of eastern Arizona.
Such a move would make sense. The 1st is politically marginal in that it voted for President Trump (48-47%) and has flipped between electing Democrats and Republicans to the House over the past 20 years. Additionally, Rep. O’Halleran has already drawn two Democratic primary opponents, the competition from which could potentially make for an even tighter general election campaign.
Congressional candidate Greg Raths, a retired Marine Corps officer and member of the Mission Viejo City Council, the 45th District’s second largest municipality, released its recent internal Fabrizio Lee Associates poll (8/15-18; 300 CA-45 likely jungle primary voters). Their data shows Mr. Raths as the strongest Republican, but not to the point of being out of reach for any of the others. Freshman Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) easily captures first place for the jungle primary with 46%, followed by Mr. Raths with 10%.
Three other candidates, Laguna Hills City Councilman Don Sedgwick, Yorba Linda City Councilwoman Peggy Huang (Yorba Linda is not in the 45th CD), and Orange County Deputy District Attorney Ray Gennawey all finish with either 3 or 2% support. We can expect this race to be a major congressional contest in the fall of 2020.
Mega-GOP and conservative cause donor Kathaleen Wall announced her congressional candidacy for the open 22nd District yesterday. In the last cycle she ran in the open 2nd District and lost to now-Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Houston) by just 155 votes as she failed to qualify for the run-off that the latter man eventually won. We can expect both a tight primary and general election in this seat from which four-term Rep. Pete Olson (R-Sugar Land) is retiring.
Also in the GOP race is County Court judge Greg Hill, a former Pearland City Councilman. Expected to join the race is Ft. Bend County Sheriff Troy Nehls. For the Democrats, the leading contender is 2018 nominee Sri Preston Kulkarni, who held Mr. Olson to a 51-46% re-election victory last November.
In what will be a Top Five Republican target race nationally, state Sen. Dan Hemmert (R-Orem) yesterday announced his congressional candidacy. If successful in the GOP primary, he will face freshman Rep. Ben McAdams (D-Salt Lake City), the former Mayor of Salt Lake County.
Also in the race is former radio talk show host and software gaming developer Jay Mcfarland and former Utah Republican Party Communications Director Kathleen Anderson. Former Rep. Mia Love (R), who has not ruled out running again, previously said she would not seek a re-match with Rep. McAdams if Sen. Hemmert would seek the position.
Washington Gov. Jay Inslee announced last night on The Rachel Maddow Show that he is withdrawing from the presidential race, saying that he understands he will not become the Democratic nominee. Mr. Inslee is the third candidate to leave the presidential race. Washington political sources say that Mr. Inslee will electronically announce that he will seek a third term as Governor later today.
International online pollster YouGov, again surveying for The Economist magazine, is back in the field testing the Democratic presidential contest. As in other polls, the YouGov study (8/17-20; 559 US likely Democratic primary voters), finds the top three finishers to be former Vice President Joe Biden, and Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA). These results, however, find Sanders slipping past Warren into second while most of the other surveys see the order reversed.
The totals project Mr. Biden with 22%, followed closely by Sanders’ 19%, and Warren’s 17%. California Sen. Kamala Harris and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg are substantially behind with 8 and 7%, respectively.
Phoenix-based OH Predictive Insights conducted their semi-regular survey of the Arizona electorate (8/13-14; 600 AZ likely general election voters) and again finds a close contest between appointed Sen. Martha McSally (R) and retired astronaut Mark Kelly (D) but, this time, the lead has changed. The OH data finds Mr. Kelly leading Sen. McSally for the first time, 46-41%, in what promises to be one of the most competitive Senate elections in the 2020 cycle.
The aforementioned Emerson College poll (8/16-19; 1,000 likely CO registered voters) sees former Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) strongly leading incumbent Sen. Cory Gardner (R) if the ex-state chief executive and now former presidential candidate were to enter the 2020 statewide race. According to the Emerson findings, Mr. Hickenlooper would lead Sen. Gardner, 53-40%, obviously well beyond the margin of any polling error.
The same sample also returns poor numbers for President Trump. All five top Democrats would exceed majority support against the President, with former Vice President Joe Biden, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), and Mayor Pete Buttigieg each leading Mr. Trump, 55-45%.
A new Emerson College poll (8/16-19; 403 likely CO Democratic primary voters) finds Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) topping the Democratic presidential field in the Centennial State. While Sen. Sanders leads, it is by the smallest of margins, just one point over former Vice President Joe Biden. The ballot test finds a 26-25-20-13% split among Sanders, Biden, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA), respectively. South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg trails substantially, polling only at 5% just one point over New York City businessman Andrew Yang.
Gravis Marketing just surveyed the important Nevada Caucus prospective electorate (8/14-16; 382 likely NV Democratic caucus participants from a survey universe of 926 registered voters) and finds former Vice President Joe Biden developing a comfortable lead but with a low support level. The results find Mr. Biden commanding 25% preference followed by Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) at 15%, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) posting 10%, and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) close behind him with 9 percent.
For the also-rans, billionaire Tom Steyer posted 6% and Mayor Pete Buttigieg 5%, while Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ), businessman Andrew Yang, Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI), Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO), and New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio recorded either 3 or 2%. All others finished at 1% or below.
The Nevada Caucus is third on the election calendar and will likely prove to be a more important nominating event than it has in previous elections.
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