A new poll was released regarding tomorrow’s Republican run-off election between Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle and Secretary of State Brian Kemp. As we reported at the end of last week, Mr. Kemp had jumped out to a 55-37% (Fox News poll for their Atlanta affiliate) lead after negative stories surrounding Mr. Cagle had repeatedly surfaced.
Now, Survey USA releases their data, which too finds Mr. Kemp holding an advantage, but with a much lesser margin than the Fox News survey forecasts. According to S-USA (7/15-19; 2,950 GA adults; 2,423 GA registered voters; 688 GA likely Republican run-off voters including some who have already cast ballots), Mr. Kemp’s lead is 40-34%. The winner faces former state Senate Minority Leader Stacey Abrams (D) in the general election. Ms. Abrams won the Democratic nomination outright in the May 22nd primary election.
Target Insyght released the Democratic primary numbers for their survey of Michigan’s open 11th CD (7/16-18; 500 MI-11 likely Democratic primary voters). According to the results, former US Treasury Department official Haley Stevens leads technology corporation CEO Suneel Gupta, the brother of CNN medical correspondent Sanjay Gupta, state Rep. Tim Greimel (D-Troy), and ex-Homeland Security Department official Fayrouz Saad, 21-15-14-7%, respectively, as the candidates move toward the August 7th primary election.
The Republicans are also fielding a large number of candidates, but commensurate data testing them was not yet publicized. Rep. David Trott (R-Birmingham) is retiring after two terms in office.
A lot of news coverage has been generated about which member of the Conyers family will succeed resigned Rep. John Conyers (D-Detroit) in Michigan’s now vacant 13th Congressional District.
According to a just-released district survey from Target Insyght (7/16-18; 600 MI-13 likely Democratic special election and primary voters), however, it doesn’t appear that state Sen. Ian Conyers (D-Detroit) is well positioned to win the Democratic nomination, which is tantamount to general election victory in this center-city district. The former Congressman’s son, John Conyers III, failed to qualify for the primary ballot and is, instead, entering the general election as an Independent. Doing so means his chances of winning the seat his father held since 1965 are minimal at best.
According to the TI data, a very tight three-way race is evolving for the party primary. Detroit City Council President Brenda Jones has a slight 21-20-19% lead over Westland Mayor Bill Wild and former state Rep. Rashida Tlaib. State Sen. Coleman Young II, son of the former Detroit Mayor, is next with 14%, while Ian Conyers trails badly at 8 percent. The Michigan primary is scheduled for August 7th. It is likely that one individual will win both the Democratic regular and concurrent special election primaries, meaning that further elections will be a mere formality.
The Republican National Committee announced on Friday that the party’s 2020 presidential nominating convention will be held in Charlotte, NC, making it the second time the city will have hosted a national major political party convention. In 2012, Democrats gathered there to re-nominate President Barack Obama.
The Democratic National Committee has narrowed its convention site choice to three cities: Houston, Miami Beach, and Milwaukee. They have set the event schedule, however, and the convention will be held from July 13-16, 2020. A fourth city host finalist, Denver, saw its leadership withdraw when the calendar was announced because of scheduling conflicts relating to their convention facilities.
The Republican convention schedule has not yet been finalized, but it will come after the Democratic dates. The party holding the White House always hosts the later nominating convention.
Rep. Ron DeSantis’ (R-Palm Coast/Daytona Beach) is leaving a dead heat Republican primary in his wake as he mounts a statewide campaign for Governor. According to a new St. Pete Polls survey (7/18; 477 FL-6 likely Republican primary voters via automated response device), a virtual three-way tie exists for the Republican nomination. According to St. Pete, former state Rep. Fred Costello, retired Naval officer John Ward, and businessman and retired Army Green Beret Michael Waltz, record respective support figures of 21-20-20%, which looks to be the closest three-way contest anywhere in the national election cycle. The Florida primary is August 28th, and the outcome is obviously in doubt.
Republican Diane Harkey has countered Democrat Mike Levin’s poll released earlier this week. As we reported earlier, the Feldman Group (6/24-27; 400 CA-49 likely voters with a 200 person oversample of those who register No Party Preference) found Mr. Levin leading the race on a 44-41% count, and expanding to 49-46% when those who responded that they are leaning to one candidate or the other are added.
The new Harkey poll, from Public Opinion Strategies (7/15-16; 400 CA-49 likely voters), reports the Republican candidate claiming a similar three-point lead, 46-43%. Ms. Harkey, a member of the California Board of Equalization and hailing from Orange County, leads in the congressional district’s Orange County section 53-42%, and 44-43% in the more dominant San Diego County segment.
Controversy has surrounded Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle soon after he finished first in the May 22nd Republican gubernatorial primary. In a telephone conversation with fourth place finisher Clay Tippins, one that the latter man secretly taped, Mr. Cagle admitted he supported a particular piece of legislation simply for political reasons. He believed supporting the bill in question would head off opponents’ spending against him in the Governor’s race. Once released to the media, the reaction is what one would expect.
After finishing first with a 39-26% margin over Secretary of State Brian Kemp, a new Opinion Savvy poll for the local Atlanta Fox News affiliate (7/17-18; 466 GOP likely run-off voters) sees Mr. Kemp outpacing Lt. Gov. Cagle, 55-37%, which is the biggest spread between the two candidates since primary election night. Additionally, President Trump has just officially endorsed Mr. Kemp, and Vice President Mike Pence is coming to the state to campaign for him over this weekend. The Georgia run-off election is Tuesday, July 24th.
The ballot initiative that would have divided California into three separate states, and create an additional four Senate seats under a modified US state map over the long term, will not be voted upon. Though the initiative qualified for the ballot in terms of recognized petition signatures, the California State Supreme Court late this week ruled the initiative question unconstitutional. Therefore, the proposition dies before voters have their say.
The initiative would have been non-binding, anyway. Congress would have to approve any type of change in state boundaries, or any measure that creates new federal governmental entities.
The Daily Kos Elections site tabulated the second quarter fundraising numbers for all competitive House races, and finds the torrid money chase continuing. Seven candidates, all incumbents, now have more than $3 million in their campaign accounts with well over three months remaining in the campaign cycle.
The top fundraiser is Rep. Devin Nunes (R-CA) who has $6.1 million in the bank. He is followed by New Jersey freshman Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D) who possesses $4.5 million. Next is Missouri Republican Rep. Ann Wagner ($3.4 million, but much of that was raised in anticipation of a Senate campaign that she ultimately decided against), followed by Reps. Gerry Connolly (D-VA) with $3.2 million, Peter King (R-NY) and Ron Kind (D-WI), both with $3.1 million, and Sean Patrick Maloney (D-NY) who has just over $3 million. The latter man will be using most of that money, however, in a state Attorney General’s race to be decided September 13th.
The Marquette Law School is back with their latest poll (7/11-15; 800 WI registered voters; 305 likely Democratic primary voters; 216 likely Republican primary voters) and tested the Wisconsin Republican primary where voters will determine on August 14th who advances into the general election to face Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D). According to the results, state Sen. Leah Vukmir (R-Brookfield), who has Gov. Scott Walker’s support along with many other state Republican leaders, has a very slight 34-32% edge over businessman Kevin Nicholson.
The results are consistent with other polls: close race with no clear leader, and the two candidates bouncing back and forth. Sen. Baldwin will be favored for re-election regardless of whom the Republicans nominate next month. But, the race is expected to become competitive.
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