The Michigan Senate race has been drawing a lot of polling attention as the candidates stream toward the political finish line. The contest between Sen. Gary Peters (D) and business owner John James (R) also appears as a test case for the Trafalgar Group, which attempts to quantify much of the right-of-center vote that other pollsters have missed when comparing 2016 and 2018 accuracy records.
Yesterday, five different polls were released, with four producing similar results. Fox News (10/17-20; 1,032 MI likely voters; live interview), Data for Progress (10/15-18; 830 MI likely voters; online), Morning Consult (10/11-20; 1,717 MI likely voters; online), and Public Policy Polling (10/21-22; MI voters; interactive voice response system) all post Sen. Peters to a clear advantage, within five to nine percentage points.
Trafalgar, on the other hand (10/15-18; 1,034 MI likely voters; live interview & online), sees a much different result. They find Mr. James holding a two-point lead, 50-48%. If the Republican were to complete the upset, Trafalgar would again be in a position of calling a race correctly when all others would be proven incorrect.
Yesterday, Survey USA released a new Minnesota Senate poll (10/16-20; 625 MN likely voters; live interview) that finds former US Rep. Jason Lewis (R) pulling to within one percentage point, 43-42%, of Sen. Tina Smith (D) as the two work toward the end of their respective campaign schedules. Countering the S-USA poll is the Civiqs polling organization (for the Daily Kos Elections site; 10/17-20; 840 MN likely voters; online) that still projects Sen. Smith to be leading in low double-digits, 54-43%. The same two polls see former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Trump by 6 (S-USA) and 9 percentage points (Civiqs) revealing little disagreement on that race.
Monmouth University conducted a recent Iowa statewide poll but did so by testing each of their four congressional districts individually.
Monmouth’s registered voters’ poll, which tends to reflect a mid-level turnout pattern, finds Rep. Abby Finkenauer (D-Dubuque) holding a 52-44% edge over state Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Cedar Rapids) in the eastern 1st District, former state Senator Rita Hart (D) posting a 49-43% lead over state Senator and former congressional candidate Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) in the open 2nd District, Rep. Cindy Axne (D-Des Moines) posting a 53-42% mark over former Congressman David Young (R) in southwestern District 3, and state Sen. Randy Feenstra (R-Hull/Sioux County) leading Democrat J.D. Scholten, 48-42%, in the open western 4th CD. Other firms find all of the races, with the exception of District 4, as polling much closer.
The Oklahoma Sooner poll is out, and it shows that Rep. Kendra Horn (D-Oklahoma City) and state Sen. Stephanie Bice (R-Oklahoma City) are battling to the end in what again appears to be a toss-up campaign. The Sooner Poll (10/16-20; 943 OK-5 likely voters; interactive voice response system) finds Rep. Horn leading Ms. Bice, 49-47%.
The Horn lead may not be as it seems, however, because she is getting 69% support among the youngest voters, those under 34 years of age who have the lowest turnout rates. Ms. Bice, on the other hand, leads among those over 50 years of age, the highest historical turnout group, by eight percentage points.
Another campaign that has polled tight for weeks is the open at-large seat in Montana. Now, a new survey from Strategies 360 (10/15-20; 500 MT likely voters; online & text) confirms the trend, finding State Auditor Matt Rosendale (R) and former state Rep. Kathleen Williams (D) tied at 46%.
The aforementioned Strategies 360 Montana (see MT-AL above) poll also tested the open Governor’s race. The ballot test finds US Rep. Greg Gianforte (R) taking a 48-41% lead over Lt. Gov. Mike Cooney (D) in the battle to replace term-limited Governor and US Senate candidate Steve Bullock (D).
As usual, we see several polls being released of a race, with a wide range of results. All show Democrat Mark Kelly leading, but the span is quite wide. Each of the surveys were conducted between the October 13-21 period.
The most favorable to Mr. Kelly comes from YouGov (10/13-16; 1,065 AZ registered voters; various online panels) and gives the Democrat an 11-point advantage, 52-41%. Ipsos/ Reuters (10/14-21; 658 AZ likely voters; online interviews) gives Mr. Kelly a 51-43% margin. The most favorable poll for appointed Sen. Martha McSally (R) comes from Rasmussen Reports/ Pulse Opinion Research (10/18-19; 800 AZ likely voters; live interview & online), which yields Mr. Kelly only a two-point edge, 46-44%.
In another instance of wide-ranging Senate polls, we show two more that may give us our largest spread. Public Policy Polling (10/19-20; 897 KS voters; interactive voice response system) sees the open contest between Rep. Roger Marshall (R-Great Bend) and state Sen. Barbara Bollier (D-Mission Hills) as a dead heat tie, 43-43%, with Libertarian Jason Buckley taking 5% preference.
The co/efficient organization saw things wholly differently. According to their survey (10/18-20; 2,453 KS likely voters; online) sees Rep. Marshall opening up his biggest lead of the general election campaign, 51-39%. Most data show the race close, but the Kansas voting history is more in line with the co/efficient result.
The Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy company tested the Kentucky Senate race between Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) and retired Marine Corps helicopter pilot Amy McGrath (D). Ms. McGrath raised over $84 million through September 30th, the second-most of any candidate in the country behind only South Carolina’s Jaime Harrison (D) who posted $86 million.
The M-D survey (10/12-16; 625 KY registered voters; live interview) finds Sen. McConnell holding a 51-42% lead over Ms. McGrath, which is consistent with earlier polls, though this race has surprisingly not attracted a large amount of attention from the polling community, probably because the race is not particularly close.
In the only previously published poll in the VA-2 race, which appeared in July, the Tarrance Group found freshman Rep. Elaine Luria (D-Norfolk) and former Rep. Scott Taylor (R) tied at 48%, apiece. As the election draws near, we see a significant change in Rep. Luria’s favor. According to the Christopher Newport University survey (10/8-18; 807 VA-2 registered voters; live interview), Rep. Luria has opened up a 50-43% over Mr. Taylor.
The latter man has been dogged with bad media coverage after two of his aides were convicted of vote fraud from the 2018 campaign. Mr. Taylor had first entered the Senate race against incumbent Mark Warner but diverted back to the House campaign when he failed to make headway in the statewide effort. This data suggests that Rep. Luria is a clear favorite to return in the next Congress.
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