Last week, we reported on a Moore Information survey (6/20-24; 600 ME registered voter telephone interviews) that found Sen. Susan Collins (R) leading state House Speaker Sara Gideon (D-Freeport), 45-37%. Now, Public Policy Polling (7/2-3; 1,022 “voters” through interactive response devise) posts Gideon to a 46-42% lead. While phone interviews tend to be more accurate than automated responses, the cumulative effect of the two polls provide support for prognosticators who project this race as a toss-up campaign.
The Senate Democratic primary race between Massachusetts incumbent Ed Markey and Rep. Joe Kennedy III (D-Newton) is expected to be close at the polls and even appears to be down to the penny in the political money war. Both men are releasing their 2nd Quarter 2020 financial numbers, and each raised just over $1.9 million during the period. They both have almost the same amount of cash-on-hand, too. Sen. Markey reports $4.8 million in his campaign account versus Rep. Kennedy’s $4.7 million. The Massachusetts Democratic primary is September 1st.
A pair of Super PACs announced support in the way of media ads for local school board member Candace Valenzuela who is opposing retired Air Force officer and 2018 state Agriculture Commissioner nominee Beth Olson. The End Citizens United and Latino Victory Fund organizations are supporting Ms. Valenzuela, while VoteVets announced an endorsement for Ms. Olson.
Fundraising is nearly equal, too. Ms. Valenzuela says she will report over $465,000 raised for the 2nd quarter, while Ms. Olson will come in around $438,000. The July 14th Democratic runoff winner faces former Irving Mayor Beth Van Duyne, who won the Republican primary outright back in March. Rep. Kenny Marchant (R-Coppell) is retiring after serving what will be eight terms at the end of the current congressional session.
Former White House physician and retired Navy Admiral Ronny Jackson (R), with President Trump’s support, is expanding his lead over lobbyist and former congressional aide Josh Winegarner (R) according to a Fabrizio Lee & Associates survey (6/27-28; 400 TX-13 likely Republican runoff voters) for the Miles of Greatness Super PAC, a military support organization backing Dr. Jackson. According to the ballot test results, the Jackson lead over Winegarner has grown to 46-29%. The postponed Republican runoff is scheduled for next week on July 14th. The Republican primary winner becomes a prohibitive favorite for election in November.
Many polls are currently being released, but the Trafalgar Group data draws special attention since the research organization was the only pollster to correctly predict Wisconsin and Pennsylvania at the end of the 2016 election cycle. The new Trafalgar Florida poll (6/29-7/2; 1,072 FL likely voters) again finds the race much closer than other pollsters. In this case, Trafalgar sees a dead tie between the two major party contenders, with both President Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden scoring 46% support among the surveyed respondents.
Again looking at a Trafalgar Group poll, this time of the important Pennsylvania electorate (6/29-7/2; 1,062 PA likely voters), the ballot test finds former VP Joe Biden leading President Trump, 48-43%, which is consistent with other current polling data. We can expect seeing regular polls coming from this state for the rest of the election cycle.
New York election authorities still cannot pinpoint when all of their outstanding absentee ballots will be tabulated, nor even a date for unofficial final election returns from the state’s June 23rd primary election.
In the 1st District, Democratic candidates await a decision regarding whether 2018 nominee Perry Gershon will prevail over college professor Nancy Goroff and local official Bridget Fleming. Mr. Gershon holds a 164 vote edge over Ms. Goroff and leads Ms. Fleming by 1,104 votes with thousands of outstanding ballots remaining to be reported. The eventual winner faces three-term Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-Shirley). In the open 2nd District, it appears clear that state Assemblyman Andrew Garbarino (R) and local town official Jackie Gordon (D) will advance into the general election.
Leaving Long Island and heading into New York City, Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-Manhattan) holds only a 648 vote lead over hotel executive and 2018 candidate Suraj Patel. At one point in the post-election period, Rep. Maloney indicated that over 109,000 absentee ballots awaited counting.
It only appears a formality to officially declare former middle school principal Jamaal Bowman the victor over veteran Rep. Eliot Engel (D-Bronx), New York City Councilman Ritchie Torres as the Democratic winner in the Bronx’s open 15th District, and attorney Mondaire Jones as the new Democratic nominee in the open 17th District. All have large leads awaiting a final count. The 19th District Republican primary is still very much in doubt as fashion company owner Ola Hawatmeh holds a 475 vote lead over former local official and Army Reserve officer Kyle Van De Water. The eventual winner here faces freshman Rep. Antonio Delgado (D-Rhineback).
Declared nomination winners are former Rep. Claudia Tenney in the 22nd District Republican primary, earning her a re-match with freshman Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D-Utica), and Dana Balter in the 24th District Democratic primary thus setting up a re-match with Rep. John Katko (R-Syracuse).
The June 30th Utah primary elections are not quite complete either, but it appears two Republicans are headed for close wins.
In the open Governor’s race with 480,869 votes counted, Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox looks to have enough of a margin to defeat former Governor and US Ambassador Jon Huntsman, marring his political comeback attempt. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Mr. Cox’s victory margin fall below 10,000 votes, however, which is a testament to Mr. Huntsman’s strength in Salt Lake County.
In the open 1st Congressional District, former US Foreign Service officer Blake Moore looks to be closing in on the Republican nomination. With 123,395 votes now counted and reported, Mr. Moore has expanded his lead to 2,669 votes (30.9 – 28.8%) over Davis County Commissioner Bob Stevenson. The Republican nominee is a cinch to win the general election.
The Democratic side of this race is also still uncalled. Shoshone Indian Tribe chairman Darren Perry has a 466 vote lead over Utah state employee Jamie Cheek. By contrast, only 22,192 votes are recorded in the Democratic primary.
Primaries and runoffs are still on the political horizon, but July is a light electoral month. Tomorrow, the postponed New Jersey statewide primary will be held, and a new extensive mail voting procedure will be tested as all registered voters were sent a live ballot. The Delaware stand-alone presidential primary will also be conducted. The regular statewide Delaware primary is the latest in the nation, scheduled for September 15th. Stand-alone presidential primaries will also be held this month in Louisiana (7/11) and Puerto Rico (7/12).
July 14th hosts runoff elections in Alabama and Texas. The important US Senate Republican contest between retired Auburn University head football coach Tommy Tuberville and ex-US Attorney General and former Senator Jeff Sessions will be finally be decided that day. Runoffs in the open 1st and 2nd Congressional Districts will also send contestants to the respective general elections in what should be safe Republican seats. The original Alabama runoff election date was March 31st.
Texas holds a US Senate Democratic runoff and 15 House secondary elections postponed from May 26th. From the latter group, nine Republican contests and six Democratic electoral events will finally determine general election participants. The Texas and Alabama primaries were held all the way back on March 3rd.
Maine holds its postponed primary also on July 14th. State House Speaker Sara Gideon is a heavy favorite to win the Democratic US Senate nomination to face incumbent Susan Collins (R). Three credible Republicans are vying for the opportunity of challenging freshman Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) in what is likely to be a competitive 2nd District general election campaign.
Change Research, as discussed in the North Carolina section below, conducted a semi-national poll in six battleground states including Arizona. Since they don’t release the individual state samples, it is difficult to measure accuracy. In North Carolina, their results differ greatly with East Carolina University.
In Arizona, however, Change and local respected pollster Data Orbital (6/27-29; 600 AZ likely voters) see a similar result. Change projects retired astronaut Mark Kelly (D) to be holding a 53-44% lead over appointed Sen. Martha McSally (R), while DO sees a slightly closer 50-43% spread.
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