Three-time World Series champion pitcher Curt Schilling confirms that he is considering entering an Arizona congressional race but does not yet specify the district. Mr. Schilling won the Most Valuable Player award in the 2001 World Series when his Arizona Diamondbacks defeated the New York Yankees to win the title. Most of his famous days, however, came when pitching for the Boston Red Sox.
Mr. Schilling, though born in Alaska, was raised in Arizona attending Phoenix metropolitan area elementary and secondary schools. If he were to run for the House, the most logical district would be the 1st, the expansive eastern Arizona politically marginal seat that Rep. Tom O’Halleran (D-Sedona) currently represents. A Schilling candidacy would certainly draw national attention, and President Trump is already voicing his encouragement to the former MLB player to run.
The recently released Gravis Marketing New Hampshire survey (8/2-6; 505 NH adults) finds Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) holding a 51:37% job approval ratio, which favorably positions her against two potential Republican opponents. Opposite former state House Speaker Bill O’Brien, Sen. Shaheen would lead 52-39%. If retired Brigadier General Don Bolduc were her Republican general election opponent, the numbers break in similar fashion: 51-38%, in the Senator’s favor.
State Rep. Robert Foster (D-Hernando), who finished a distant third with 18% of the vote in the August 6th gubernatorial primary, has endorsed second place finisher Bill Waller Jr., a retired state Supreme Court Judge. He faces front-runner Tate Reeves, Mississippi’s Lt. Governor, in the August 27th Republican run-off. In the first vote, Mr. Reeves came within one percentage point of clinching the nomination outright.
A Mason-Dixon Strategy & Polling survey released before the primary (7/24-27; 500 MS likely Republican voters) gave Mr. Reeves a 41-31% advantage over Mr. Waller if the two were forced into a secondary election.
A new survey from the nation’s first primary state, New Hampshire, was just released from Gravis Marketing (8/2-6), though their likely Democratic primary voter sample is low with just 250 people interviewed. As other polls have found, former Vice President Joe Biden generally doesn’t fare particularly well in Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Elizabeth Warren’s (D-MA) political backyard.
Gravis finds Sen. Sanders, who received 60% of the vote here in his 2016 primary against Hillary Clinton, topping the field with 21% support followed by Mr. Biden who only posts 15%. Sen. Warren is next at 12% while South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) record 8 and 7% preference scores. Tracking above 2% in New Hampshire for the first time are Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI) with 5%, and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MA), businessman Andrew Yang, and billionaire Tom Steyer who all register 4% support.
A move that perhaps best indicates that former Gov. John Hickenlooper will soon exit the presidential campaign and return to Colorado to enter the US Senate race occurred yesterday. After forming a Senate exploratory committee, Secretary of State Jena Griswold (D) yesterday said she would not become a candidate. This is significant because, of the 14 announced candidates or those who filed exploratory committees, Ms. Griswold is the only one who has won a statewide office, and arguably had the best chance of winning the crowded primary as the race currently stands.
The Republican incumbent, Sen. Cory Gardner, is considered to be one of the most vulnerable Senators seeking re-election in 2020.
Utah’s 4th District that encompasses more than half of Salt Lake County, almost all of Juab, and parts of Sanpete and Utah Counties is one of the most Republican seats that elected a Democrat to Congress in 2018. Therefore, the upcoming race looks to be as competitive for freshman Rep. Ben McAdams (D-Salt Lake City) as was his campaign last November when he unseated then-Rep. Mia Love (R) by 694 votes from just under 270,000 cast ballots.
Yesterday, state Rep. Kim Coleman (R-West Jordan) joined the growing field of Republican candidates. She will oppose former radio talk show host and gaming application developer Jay Mcfarland, who refers to himself as “JayMac”, ex-Utah Republican Party communications director Kathleen Anderson, and Iraq War veteran John Molnar in the Republican primary. It is clear the general election contest will be a top-tier challenge race next year.
At-large Montana Rep. Greg Gianforte (R-Bozeman) just publicized an internal Moore Information Republican primary poll (methodology statistics not released) that posts him to a large lead over his Republican primary opponents, Attorney General Tim Fox and state Sen. Al Olszewski (R-Kalispell). According to the MI results, Mr. Gianforte’s margin is 56-17-5% over his two rivals, respectively.
Before winning a 2017 special at-large congressional election and a full term last November, Rep. Gianforte was the 2016 Republican gubernatorial nominee losing to incumbent Steve Bullock (D), 50-46%.
Former Vice President Joe Biden has been doing very well in southern state polling, and the new Oklahoma Sooner Poll supports the stated trend. Looking closer at the survey methodology, however, tells us that this particular study is inconclusive. First, the sampling period is over a long ten-day span (7/17-27), and second, while 373 Oklahoma voters were sampled, only 152 individuals are registered Democrats. Both factors substantially decrease reliability.
Therefore, the ballot test projecting Mr. Biden with 26% support as compared to Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s (D-MA) 12% means that only 40 respondents chose Biden and just 17 voiced support for his chief opponent. These numbers are clearly not high enough to form a credible statewide tabulation.
The TelOpinion Research firm released their independent Republican primary poll of New York’s 27th District primary featuring indicted incumbent Chris Collins (R-Clarence/Batavia). The survey (7/31-8/1; 500 NY-27 likely Republican primary voters) finds the Congressman in relatively strong position if he were to seek re-nomination. Currently, he is scheduled to stand trial on insider trading charges in February but promises a re-election decision prior to the beginning of legal proceedings.
According to the poll results, Rep. Collins commands 46% support as compared to state Sen. Christopher Jacobs’ (R-Buffalo) 26% with attorney Beth Parlato recording 4% support. The strongest Republican appears to be Medal of Honor winner David Bellavia. He challenged Rep. Collins in the 2018 GOP primary but so far has not expressed interest in running again. If Rep. Collins decides not to run, Mr. Bellavia would have a 41-27-6% advantage over Sen. Jacobs and Ms. Parlato.
Other Republicans, such as Erie County Comptroller Stefan I. Mychajliw Jr., Assemblyman Stephen Hawley of Genesee County, and state Sen. Robert Ortt R- North Tonawanda) are potential candidates particularly if the seat opens. The general election was extremely tight last year, as Mr. Collins nipped Democrat Nate McMurray, 47.8-47.2%. Mr. McMurray, a Grand Island Town Supervisor, has already announced his 2020 candidacy.
Newly announced congressional candidate Carl DeMaio (R), a San Diego radio host who formerly served on the San Diego City Council and ran for both Mayor and then the 52nd Congressional District in 2014, just announced that he would run in District 50 that indicted Congressman Duncan Hunter (R-Alpine) currently represents. With Hunter headed for trial in September over campaign finance charges, five Republicans and a Democrat have already announced their candidacies in anticipation of the Congressman being forced to leave office.
On the heels of his candidacy announcement, Mr. DeMaio released an internal Tarrance Group survey conducted way back in June (6/24-26; 302 CA-50 likely primary voters) that shows DeMaio and former Rep. Darrell Issa, who is not an announced candidate, as the two Republicans who score in double-digits. Despite DeMaio’s claim that he is the candidate to beat, the data actually places Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar ahead of the field in most iterations. The questionnaire also revealed a negative response to Mr. Issa potentially switching districts, but they fail to indicate whether a similar question was asked about DeMaio who will be doing likewise.
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