The OnMessage polling firm, conducting their survey for the Sean Parnell campaign (9/2-3; 400 PA-17 likely voters), finds a close race developing in the Pittsburgh suburbs. The OnMessage results find Rep. Conor Lamb (D-Pittsburgh) clinging to only a one-point lead, 45-44%, over Mr. Parnell, an author and Afghan War veteran. This race has not gotten a great deal of attention since President Trump called upon Mr. Parnell to enter the race at an early campaign rally well before the COVID shut down. This is one of the 30 districts President Trump carried in 2016 that a Democrat currently represents.
The AARP organization commissioned a series of Democratic and Republican polling firms to test key states for the upcoming presidential and US Senate contests. Like other recent pollsters, the Benenson Strategy Group (D)/GS Strategy Group (R) pairing found tightening ballot test results in three key states: Arizona, Florida and Pennsylvania.
Testing 1,600 likely voters via live interviews during the August 30th thru September 5th period, the AARP team found Joe Biden leading in all three of the critical swing states, but in margins well within the polling error factor. The Biden leads were 1, 2, and 3 points in Arizona, Florida, and Pennsylvania, respectively.
The last two publicly released surveys found Pennsylvania State Auditor Eugene DePasquale (D) taking a small lead over incumbent Rep. Scott Perry (R-Dillsburg/Harrisburg) in the re-configured 10th District. Now Pulse Research, in a survey with a large sample but a long testing period (8/18-9/3; 1,100 PA-10 likely voters) finds Rep. Perry rebounding to capture his own small edge, 46-44%.
The previous two polls from the GBAO polling organization and DFM Research, yielded Mr. DePasquale margins of four and two percentage points. Obviously, this is a close race and a top national Democratic conversion target.
A number of polls were conducted over the Labor Day period and we generally see a closing of the presidential race. In Florida, NBC News/Marist College (8/31-9/6; 1,047 FL registered voters; 766 likely voters; live interview) discovers President Trump forging ahead to record a one-point, 48-47%, edge among registered voters, while he and former Vice President Joe Biden are tied at 48% among likely voters.
Turning to another swing state, Michigan, the Glengariff Group (9/1-3; 600 MI likely voters) finds Mr. Biden leading 47-42%, which is a closer spread than seen in most current surveys. The latest three polls from the international research firm Redfield & Wilton Strategies, Hodas & Associates, and Morning Consult, all of which conducted studies between August 11th and September 3rd, projected Mr. Biden to leads of 11, 11, and 10 points, respectively.
A pair of new Pennsylvania surveys also see the contest closing. Redfield & Wilton Strategies, the London, England based firm (8/30-9/3; 1,053 PA likely voters; online), found a five-point spread, with Mr. Biden up 47-42%. Local Pennsylvania research firm Susquehanna Polling & Research (8/26-9/4; 498 PA likely voters; live interview) sees the margin between the two national candidates dropping to two points, 44-42%, again in Mr. Biden’s favor.
Still closing, but in a reversed manner, We Ask America (9/1-3; 500 MO likely voters; live interview) projects that President Trump’s Missouri advantage over Mr. Biden is dropping to five percentage points, 49-45%. This, while the same sampling universe detects an expanding margin for Gov. Mike Parson (R) in his election battle with State Auditor Nicole Galloway. That contest is breaking 54-41% in Mr. Parson’s favor.
As we have witnessed quite a few times during this unique election cycle, we again see multiple pollsters surveying the same electorate within a similar time frame and reporting diverse results. This time, the site is the Keystone State of Pennsylvania.
Quinnipiac University (8/28-9/1; 1,107 PA likely voters; live interview) finds Joe Biden holding an eight point, 52-44%, advantage in their latest survey. Rasmussen Reports, just completing their poll immediately before the Q-Poll began (8/25-27; 1,000 PA likely voters), concluded the two candidates were tied at 46%, apiece. Among those who said they are “certain to vote,” which translated into 82% of those responding, President Trump held a 51-49% edge.
During the same period, Monmouth University (8/28-31; 400 PA voters with high, medium, and low voter turnout projection models), one of just six polling entities to receive an A+ rating from the FiveThirtyEight statistical organization rating system, projects a Pennsylvania result closer to Rasmussen with electorate falling between one and three points in Mr. Biden’s favor among likely voters depending upon the turnout factor.
In a race that promises to be close throughout the remaining days of the campaign, PA State Auditor Eugene DePasquale (D) has taken a four-point, 50-46%, lead over Rep. Scott Perry (R-Dillsburg/Harrisburg) according to a new GBAO polling organization survey. Earlier in the month, the DFM Research firm found the margin to be two percentage points, also in Mr. DePasquale’s favor.
What was previously a safe Republican district was changed in the 2018 state Supreme Court redistricting order. The addition of the city of Harrisburg and all of Dauphin County makes this seat much more competitive than originally drawn. Rep. Perry won his first re-election within the new boundaries in the last election with only a 51-49% spread over Democratic nominee George Scott.
Further signs are occurring showing the presidential race getting closer. Democratic pollster Change Research just released a series of surveys in six crucial 2020 swing states, Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, during the August 21-23 period with sample sizes ranging from a low of 344 likely voters in Arizona to a high of 1,262 similarly chosen poll participants in Florida.
While CR projects former Vice President Joe Biden to be leading in all six states, at least four of which (AZ, FL, NC, and either MI, PA, or WI) are must-wins for President Trump, the Democratic nominee’s lead has dwindled to between one and six points in all of these places.
Two Democratic polling firms surveyed key presidential swing states over the same time period. Though they both see former Vice President Joe Biden leading in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, their margins, at least in two of the states, were leagues apart.
In Michigan, Redfield and Wilton Strategies (8/16-18; 812 MI likely voters) gave Mr. Biden a 12-point, 50-38%, lead while Civiqs, polling for the Daily Kos Elections Page (8/13-17; 631 MI registered voters), projected only a three point advantage for the now-official Democratic nominee, 49-46%. In Wisconsin, Redfield & Wilton (8/16-19; 672 WI likely voters) posted Biden to a ten-point lead, 49-39%, while Civiqs (8/13-17; 754 WI registered voters) yielded him only a six-point, 51-45%, edge.
Turning to Pennsylvania, the two pollsters found an identical seven-point spread, however. Redfield & Wilton (8/16-17; 1,006 PA likely voters) saw a 48-41% Biden lead, while Civiqs (8/13-17; 617 PA likely voters) forecast a 51-44% margin.
The current election cycle has seen several instances of multiple pollsters surveying a consistent electorate during the same relative time frame and producing inconsistent results. Now, we see three individual polling entities, a Democratic and Republican firm along with a university, survey the Pennsylvania electorate from August 2-17 and all three found an almost identical presidential ballot test result.
OnMessage, the Republican firm (8/2-4; 400 PA likely voters), saw a 50-46% split in former Vice President Joe Biden’s favor. Democratic pollster Change Research (8/7-9; 456 PA likely voters) found a 48-44% Biden margin. The latest survey, from Muhlenberg College (8/11-17; 416 PA likely voters) called it 49-45% with Mr. Biden leading. Therefore, all three entities found a consistent four-point Biden lead. This is obviously good news for the Biden camp, but during the same point in 2016, Hillary Clinton posted leads of seven and eight percentage points only to see President Trump go onto win the state in the actual election.
Arguing a voter access case before the state Supreme Court, Secretary of State Kathy Boockvar (D) has reversed course and now approves of ballots being counted if they are received after Election Day. She is recommending a three-day acceptance period.
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