Lakeland City Commissioner and retired Navy fighter pilot Scott Franklin denied freshman Rep. Ross Spano (R-Dover) re-nomination in August, and now we see the first published poll indicating how he will fare in the general election. According to the Democratic Greenberg Quinlan Rosner firm survey (9/4-6; 400 FL-15 likely voters), Mr. Franklin is staked to a relatively healthy 49-42% advantage over former television newscaster Alan Cohn (D).
The 15th is a traditionally Republican district with GOP candidates typically winning in the high 50s to low 60s. Mr. Spano won the seat in 2018 after then-Rep. Dennis Ross (R) retired. He became the victim of bad publicity during his first term over inappropriate loans used for his 2018 campaign. This helped lead to Mr. Franklin’s upset 51-49% Republican primary win on August 18th. Mr. Cohn upset favored state Rep. Adam Hattersley (D-Riverview), 41-33%, within a field of four Democratic candidates.
Two more Florida polls were released showing a tightening of the race between President Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden. Both Monmouth and Florida Atlantic Universities were in the field during the September 9-13 period. Monmouth (9/10-13; 428 FL likely voters; live interview) found Mr. Biden leading 50-45% under their high turnout model, and an almost identical 49-46% if the voter participation factor proves lower.
FAU (9/11-12; 831 FL likely voters; live interview and online) finds the two candidates tied at 50-50% when all respondents are pushed to make a decision. Once again, Florida is a very close state but a must-win for President Trump.
The AARP organization commissioned a series of Democratic and Republican polling firms to test key states for the upcoming presidential and US Senate contests. Like other recent pollsters, the Benenson Strategy Group (D)/GS Strategy Group (R) pairing found tightening ballot test results in three key states: Arizona, Florida and Pennsylvania.
Testing 1,600 likely voters via live interviews during the August 30th thru September 5th period, the AARP team found Joe Biden leading in all three of the critical swing states, but in margins well within the polling error factor. The Biden leads were 1, 2, and 3 points in Arizona, Florida, and Pennsylvania, respectively.
The 1892 polling organization, which first captured national attention this year with a correct prediction in the CA-25 special election that saw Republican retired fighter pilot Mike Garcia defeat Democratic state Assemblywoman Christy Smith (D-Newhall/Santa Clarita), released a new South Florida survey yesterday testing freshman Rep. Donna Shalala (D-Miami) and Spanish language news reporter and 2018 congressional nominee Maria Elvira Salazar (R). Their poll (9/2-6; 400 FL-27 likely voters) surprisingly finds Ms. Salazar, who lost the 2018 election, 52-46%, now leading Rep. Shalala, 46-43%. This is becoming a race to watch for November.
A number of polls were conducted over the Labor Day period and we generally see a closing of the presidential race. In Florida, NBC News/Marist College (8/31-9/6; 1,047 FL registered voters; 766 likely voters; live interview) discovers President Trump forging ahead to record a one-point, 48-47%, edge among registered voters, while he and former Vice President Joe Biden are tied at 48% among likely voters.
Turning to another swing state, Michigan, the Glengariff Group (9/1-3; 600 MI likely voters) finds Mr. Biden leading 47-42%, which is a closer spread than seen in most current surveys. The latest three polls from the international research firm Redfield & Wilton Strategies, Hodas & Associates, and Morning Consult, all of which conducted studies between August 11th and September 3rd, projected Mr. Biden to leads of 11, 11, and 10 points, respectively.
A pair of new Pennsylvania surveys also see the contest closing. Redfield & Wilton Strategies, the London, England based firm (8/30-9/3; 1,053 PA likely voters; online), found a five-point spread, with Mr. Biden up 47-42%. Local Pennsylvania research firm Susquehanna Polling & Research (8/26-9/4; 498 PA likely voters; live interview) sees the margin between the two national candidates dropping to two points, 44-42%, again in Mr. Biden’s favor.
Still closing, but in a reversed manner, We Ask America (9/1-3; 500 MO likely voters; live interview) projects that President Trump’s Missouri advantage over Mr. Biden is dropping to five percentage points, 49-45%. This, while the same sampling universe detects an expanding margin for Gov. Mike Parson (R) in his election battle with State Auditor Nicole Galloway. That contest is breaking 54-41% in Mr. Parson’s favor.
For the past several weeks, the Trafalgar Group has been attempting to quantify the number of “shy Trump voters” in their studies – those preferring President Trump but won’t say so – leading to accusations that their polls are outliers. Their latest release comes in Florida. In this case, however, the Trafalgar formula is not particularly out of step with other recent Sunshine State surveys.
According to TG’s findings (9/1-3; 1,022 FL likely voters), President Trump has captured the lead over former Vice President Joe Biden in this most important of electoral states, 49-46%. The previous two Florida polls, from Quinnipiac University and Morning Consult, gave Mr. Biden leads of three and two points, respectively. Within the same time frame, the Democracy Institute released numbers yielding President Trump a three point, 47-44%, edge. In all four of these polls, both nominees recorded support figures between 44 and 49 percent, once again leading to another toss-up Florida projection.
The first published poll for the Rep. Vern Buchanan-state Rep. Margaret Good (D) campaign has been released, and it brings favorable news for the Sarasota area’s seven-term US House incumbent. According to the Data Targeting firm, Rep. Buchanan has established a 51-35% lead over Ms. Good.
The results find Mr. Buchanan’s 51% support figure running ahead of President Trump’s 47% and is three points better than the Republican generic figure. Ms. Good reports raising almost $1.8 million for her effort and held over $1 million in her campaign account at the July 29th pre-primary campaign finance reporting deadline.
St. Pete Polls has just released their first post-August 18th primary poll for the St. Petersburg anchored congressional district that former Gov. Charlie Crist (D) now represents. The survey (8/29-30; 2,160 FL-13 likely voters via automated response device) finds Rep. Crist leading new Republican nominee Anna Paulina Luna, a local businesswoman and US Air Force veteran, by a 55-39% count. The 13th District, fully contained within Pinellas County, leans Democratic and is one of the key competitive Florida congressional seats.
Democratic pollster Public Policy Polling released their latest of the Florida surveys (8/21-22; 671 FL voters) and finds former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Trump, 49-46%. Florida is a must-win state for President Trump, and polling has in the past predicted slight Democratic leads going into Election Day that resulted in close Republican wins for the most recent presidential, US Senate, and gubernatorial campaigns.
In the last ten Florida polls conducted in this 2020 campaign from the July 17 – August 22 period, Mr. Biden’s average lead has dropped to 3.2 percentage points. In the previous ten surveys, conducted from June 8th through July 21st, the Biden lead averaged just under seven percentage points.
Further signs are occurring showing the presidential race getting closer. Democratic pollster Change Research just released a series of surveys in six crucial 2020 swing states, Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, during the August 21-23 period with sample sizes ranging from a low of 344 likely voters in Arizona to a high of 1,262 similarly chosen poll participants in Florida.
While CR projects former Vice President Joe Biden to be leading in all six states, at least four of which (AZ, FL, NC, and either MI, PA, or WI) are must-wins for President Trump, the Democratic nominee’s lead has dwindled to between one and six points in all of these places.
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