An unusual poll that the Cook Political Report and the Henry J. Kaiser Foundation sponsored and funded of the electorates in the four key Great Lakes states provides Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) some good news from her home state. According to these results, Sen. Klobuchar places second in the field with 15% support. She is ten points behind leader Elizabeth Warren, and one point ahead of former Vice President Joe Biden. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) is a further point behind Mr. Biden.
Sen. Warren also leads in two of the three other states, Michigan, Wisconsin, while Mr. Biden places first in Pennsylvania. The data generally shows a three-way race among Biden, Warren, and Sanders throughout the Great Lakes region.
In Minnesota, the political parties directly control the ballot for their nomination elections. Yesterday, the state Republican officials were required to inform the Secretary of State as to who has qualified for the 2020 Republican presidential ballot – Minnesota voters will cast ballots in a stand-alone presidential primary on Super Tuesday, March 3rd – and party officials presented only one name: President Donald Trump.
Particularly in states where the individual political parties finance their own nomination system, more and more will simply award their delegates to the President not only to show support, but also to save the cost of running a full-blown election. This means that fledgling presidential candidates like former Governor Bill Weld (MA) and ex-South Carolina Governor and US Representative Mark Sanford have little chance of even denting the President’s political armor.
Democrat Dan Feehan, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of the US Defense Department who lost a tight 50.1 – 49.7% contest to now-freshman Rep. Jim Hagedorn (R-Blue Earth/Rochester), announced yesterday that he will return for a re-match in 2020. We can expect another hard-fought campaign to occur in southern Minnesota next year.
House Agriculture chairman Collin Peterson (D-Detroit Lakes) could well face the most accomplished opponent since he originally came to the House after the 1990 election. Right after the holiday weekend, former Lt. Governor and state Senate President Michelle Fischbach (R) announced that she will challenge the veteran Congressman in the most pro-Trump district in the country that sends a Democrat to Washington. Mr. Trump carried this seat 62-31% in 2016. Mr. Peterson, against weak opposition, has failed to exceed 52.5% in his last two election campaigns.
Former one-term Congressman Jason Lewis (R) announced yesterday, as expected, that he will challenge Sen. Tina Smith (D) next year. Mr. Lewis was originally elected to the House in 2016, defeating businesswoman Angie Craig. In the 2018 election, Ms. Craig returned for a re-match and unseated the freshman incumbent. Instead of attempting to regain his 2nd District Congressional seat, the former radio talk show host has now entered the statewide campaign.
The move gives Republicans a credible Senate nominee. Sen. Smith was appointed to replace Al Franken when he resigned due to a sexual harassment scandal. She was then elected in a special election last November to fill the balance of the current term on a 53-42% vote over state Senator Karin Housley (R). Ms. Housley chose to seek re-election to her current position rather than return for a re-match in the US Senate race.
Political rumors had been abounding for the past couple of weeks that former Rep. Jason Lewis (R) had decided to challenge Sen. Tina Smith (D), but the ex-Congressman and radio talk show host would only admit to be “considering” his political options. Apparently, the rumors are about to bear fruit. Minnesota sources indicate that Mr. Lewis will announce his Senate candidacy at the State Fair next week.
Sen. Smith, the state’s former Lt. Governor, was appointed to replace Al Franken when he resigned from the Senate early in 2018. She was then elected to fill the balance of the term, scoring a 53-42% win over state Sen. Karin Housley (R-St. Mary’s Point). Mr. Lewis was elected to the House in 2016 with a 47-45% win over businesswoman Angie Craig (D). Last November, Ms. Craig rebounded to unseat Rep. Lewis with a 53-47% victory spread.
Sen. Smith will be favored for re-election, but President Trump targeting the state after losing by just 1.5 percentage points in 2016 suggests that serious political resources will be expended in the state that should assist Lewis in making the Senate race competitive.
Though House Agriculture Committee chairman Collin Peterson (D-Detroit Lakes) continues to remain coy about his re-election plans as always, it is presumed he will seek re-election for a 16th term next year. Officially, Rep. Peterson says he will make a final decision in January or February. But, he has already filed a 2020 campaign committee with the Federal Election Commission and is actively raising money.
His 7th District of Minnesota is an interesting seat. This is the most Republican and pro-Trump district (Trump ’16: 61.8%) in the country that elects a Democrat to the US House. It will almost assuredly go Republican if Mr. Peterson decides to retire.
Detecting a surge for Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) in several states and national presidential polling, she now has captured an outright lead in at least one state. Change Research polled the Minnesota Democratic electorate (6/8-12; 772 MN likely Democratic primary voters) in anticipation of the state’s presidential primary scheduled for Super Tuesday, March 3rd, and finds her atop the large field.
According to the Change data, Sen. Warren is projected to hold a slight 21-20-19-16-11% edge over former Vice President Joe Biden, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), home state Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, respectively. Minnesota carries 75 first ballot delegates to the Democratic National Convention, ranking it as the 17th largest voting entity.
Without any fanfare, western Minnesota Congressman and House Agriculture Committee chairman Collin Peterson (D-Detroit Lakes) filed a new FEC campaign committee for the 2020 election cycle, though he has yet to confirm that he will seek an 11th term. The signs, however, point to him attempting to continue his long congressional tenure. In the past few cycles, the Congressman was coy about whether he would run again all the way to the candidate filing deadline, so his actions this year are consistent with past behavior.
Mr. Peterson’s re-election may not be a slam dunk, however. President Trump scored 62% in the 7th District back in 2016, his strongest showing in any CD that a Democrat represents. Additionally, the Congressman’s own political performance yielded tighter-than-expected 52% victories in both 2018 and ’16. Thus, Republicans are looking to target this district next year presuming they can recruit a stronger GOP candidate.
Another re-do campaign looks to be on tap in southern Minnesota. In one of three Democratic seats that flipped to the Republicans, and one of those was due solely to Pennsylvania redistricting, freshman Rep. Jim Hagedorn (R-Blue Earth/Rochester) nipped Democrat Dan Feehan by just 1,315 votes last November, a 50.1 – 49.7% victory margin. Yesterday, Mr. Feehan announced that he will return for a re-match next year.
The 1st District has been trending more Republican in recent elections as evidenced by the Hagedorn win and President Trump’s 53-38% victory spread in the last presidential election. Previously, Democratic Gov. Tim Walz represented the seat for six terms until winning his statewide election last November.
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