Two Senate races were called yesterday, one for Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) who scored a 51-42% victory over state House Speaker Sara Gideon (D-Freeport). Ms. Gideon conceded the race yesterday even though the count had not ended. In Michigan, Sen. Gary Peters (D) was projected with a very close win (49.6 – 48.5%) over GOP challenger John James.
The two calls mean that the high number for the Republican majority is 52, with the Democratic maximum being 51. The most likely outcome from the current trends and potentially projecting the runoff election under what may be a Biden victory at the presidential level is either a Republican majority of 51 or 52 seats.
In the House, 40 races remain uncalled, yet many of them are now reporting 100% of the vote being received. Of the 40, the Republicans lead in 25 and the Democrats in 15. This would translate in a Republican net gain in the House of most likely between five and nine seats.
Below is a list of the races that remain uncalled and which candidate is currently leading.
Alaska: Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) - Status: 62.3%; Reporting: 50%
Georgia-A: Sen. David Perdue (R) - must reach 50%; Status: 50.2%; Reporting: 97%
Georgia-B: Rev. Raphael Warnock (D) - Status: 32.5%; Reporting: 96%
Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) - Status: 26.2%; Reporting: Runoff
Maine: Sen. Susan Collins (R) - Winner; Status: 51.1%
Michigan: Sen. Gary Peters (D) - Winner; Status: 49.6%
North Carolina: Sen. Thom Tillis (R) - Status: 48.7%; Reporting: 93%
AK-AL: Rep. Don Young (R) - Status: 63.3%; Reporting: 53%
AZ-1: Rep. Tom O'Halleran (D) - Status: 52.1%; Reporting: 92%
AZ-6: Hiral Tipirneni (D) - Status: 50.3%; Reporting: 76%
CA-4: Rep. Tom McClintock (R) - Status: 52.9%; Reporting: 87%
CA-8: Jay Obernolte (R) - Status: 53.3%; Reporting: 37%
CA-21: David Valadao (R) - Status: 51.4%; Reporting: 42%
CA-25: Christy Smith (D) - Status: 50.3%; Reporting: 77%
CA-39: Young Kim (R) - Status: 50.2%; Reporting: 89%
CA-48: Michelle Steel (R) - Status: 50.3%; Reporting: 93%
CA-50: Darrell Issa (R) - Status: 52.2%; Reporting: 51%
GA-7: Carolyn Bourdeaux (D) - Status: 51.2%; Reporting: 100%
IA-2: Marianette Miller-Meeks (R) - Status: 50.0%; Reporting: 100%
IL-14: Jim Oberweis (R) - Status: 50.1%; Reporting: 100%
IL-17: Cheri Bustos (D) - Status: 51.8%; Reporting: 100%
IN-5: Victoria Spartz (R) - Status: 50.2%; Reporting: 99%
MI-3: Peter Meijer (R) - Status: 53.1%; Reporting: 99%
MI-5: Dan Kildee (D) - Status: 54.3%; Reporting: 100%
MI-11: Haley Stevens (D) - Status: 50.0%; Reporting: 97%
MN-1: Rep. Jim Hagedorn (R) - Status: 48.6%; Reporting: 100%
MN-2: Rep. Angie Craig (D) - Status: 48.2%; Reporting: 100%
NJ-2: Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R) - Status: 51.0%; Reporting: 75%
NV-3: Rep. Susie Lee (D) - Status: 48.2%; Reporting: 85%
NV-4: Rep. Steven Horsford (D) - Status: 49.7%; Reporting: 65%
NY-1: Rep. Lee Zeldin (R) - Status: 61.3%; Reporting: 99%
NY-2: Andrew Garbarino (R) - Status: 58.1%; Reporting: 99%
NY-3: George Santos (R) - Status: 50.5%; Reporting: 99%
NY-4: Rep. Kathleen Rice (D) - Status: 52.0%; Reporting: 100%
NY-11: Nicole Malliotakis (R) - Status: 57.9%; Reporting: 95%
NY-18: Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D) - Status: 50.8%; Reporting: 100%
NY-19: Rep. Antonio Delgado (D) - Status: 51.3%; Reporting: 98%
NY-22: Claudia Tenney (R) - Status: 54.9%; Reporting: 100%
NY-24: Rep. John Katko (R) - Status: 58.5%; Reporting: 100%
PA-7: Lisa Scheller (R) - Status: 50.7%; Reporting: 86%
PA-8: Jim Bognet (R) - Status: 50.5%; Reporting: 86%
PA-10: Rep. Scott Perry (R) - Status: 54.9%; Reporting: 89%
PA-17: Sean Parnell (R) - Status: 51.0%; Reporting: 94%
TX-24: Beth Van Duyne (R) - Status: 48.8%; Reporting: 99%
UT-4: Rep. Ben McAdams (D) - Status: 48.2%; Reporting: 69%
VA-7: Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) - Status: 50.6%; Reporting: 100%
WA-3: Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) - Status: 54.7%; Reporting: 80%
The 2020 election isn’t yet complete, but Minnesota Gov. Mike Walz (D) may have already drawn a 2022 re-election opponent. My Pillow company founder Mike Lindell (R) said at a pre-election Republican event that he would enter the gubernatorial race in two years. He was a potential candidate in 2018 but eventually decided not to run. Mr. Lindell would have personal funds to become credible early, but we are a long way from establishing this potential match-up as a legitimate campaign race.
Despite former Rep. Jason Lewis (R) just now getting out of the hospital for what his staff members indicated was a hernia procedure that turned life threatening, he is still in a competitive position opposite Sen. Tina Smith (D). A new Survey USA poll (for KTSP-TV; 10/23-27; 800 MN adults; 689 MN registered voters) finds the Minnesota race again getting close as Sen. Smith holds only a 45-42% edge over Mr. Lewis. Among the 1/3 of the sample who had already voted, Sen. Smith held a 38-point lead. In the segment that plans to vote on Election Day, Mr. Lewis has a 22-point advantage.
Yesterday, Survey USA released a new Minnesota Senate poll (10/16-20; 625 MN likely voters; live interview) that finds former US Rep. Jason Lewis (R) pulling to within one percentage point, 43-42%, of Sen. Tina Smith (D) as the two work toward the end of their respective campaign schedules. Countering the S-USA poll is the Civiqs polling organization (for the Daily Kos Elections site; 10/17-20; 840 MN likely voters; online) that still projects Sen. Smith to be leading in low double-digits, 54-43%. The same two polls see former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Trump by 6 (S-USA) and 9 percentage points (Civiqs) revealing little disagreement on that race.
When Legal Marijuana Now party congressional nominee Adam Weeks suddenly passed away two weeks ago, Minnesota Secretary of State Steve Simon (DFL) invoked the state’s law that forces an election to be postponed for three months if a major party candidate dies within 79 days of the election. Because the Legal Marijuana Now party received the required minimum number of votes in the last election, Minnesota recognizes this as a major party.
Rep. Angie Craig (D-Eagan), obviously not wanting to wait until February 9th to win re-election since this would upset her office operation and drop her on the seniority list (because she technically would not be part of the new Congress until well after commencement), filed suit asking the law be suspended and the 2nd District Congressional District be re-admitted to the November 3rd regular election cycle. Republican nominee Tyler Kistner did not object to the suit, and both candidates were proceeding as if the vote would be November 3rd. On Friday, a federal judge granted Ms. Craig’s motion, and the 2nd District again rejoins the regular election cycle.
As we have previously reported, Minnesota’s 2nd Congressional District election has been postponed to February 9th because one of the minor party candidates suddenly passed away 79 days before the general election. Rep. Angie Craig (D-Eagan) has filed a lawsuit challenging the Minnesota law that forces such an election delay and asking that the vote be reinstated to November 3rd. She is urging her supporters to cast their ballots for her anyway on November 3rd, even if the state won’t count the ballots.
Apparently, the Congresswoman’s Republican opponent, Marine Corps Reserve officer Tyler Kistner, agrees with her lawsuit, or at least feels she has a strong chance of prevailing. He has now resumed television advertising in anticipation of a November 3rd vote.
As predicted yesterday when Minnesota Rep. Angie Craig (D-Eagan) sent a message to her supporters telling them to vote for her as usual in the regular general election, a lawsuit has now been filed to overturn the Secretary of State’s ruling that the 2nd Congressional District general election be postponed to February 9th. Under Minnesota election law, if a major party candidate dies within 79 days of a general election, the vote is postponed for that particular race for a period of three months, in this case to February 9th.
In this year’s 2nd District election, Legal Marijuana Party candidate Adam Weeks passed away suddenly last week. Under Minnesota election law, this entity rather surprisingly constitutes a major party; hence, the election postponement. Ms. Craig will undoubtedly argue this state statute conflicts with the federal election law that requires all states hold their federal office elections on the same day. Therefore, exactly when this election will be held remains unclear.
Last week, we reported on a bizarre situation occurring in Minnesota’s 2nd Congressional District that is resulting in postponing the general election to February 9th. With Legal Marijuana Now party nominee Adam Weeks unexpectedly passing, under Minnesota election law, the election is postponed if a major party candidate dies within 79 days of the general election. Surprisingly, under Minnesota election law, the Legal Marijuana Now party is classified as “major.”
Freshman Rep. Angie Craig (D-Eagan) on Friday sent a signal that she may be contesting the law. The official Secretary of State’s public position is that ballots cast in the 2nd District Congressional race on November 3rd will be discarded and not counted. Ms. Craig, in a message to supporters, instructed them to go ahead and vote in the regular general election as usual. Expect further action to occur shortly regarding this unique situation.
An obscure law will take effect in this election because Legal Marijuana Now party nominee Adam Weeks unexpectedly passed away earlier this week. After the death of Sen. Paul Wellstone (D) eleven days before the election in 2002, which led to a fast and haphazard special election to replace him, an updated law was subsequently enacted that requires a special election well after the national Election Day if a major party candidate dies within 79 days of the general election.
Surprisingly, under Minnesota election law, the Legal Marijuana Now party is classified as “major.” Therefore, the 2nd District election will now be decided in a special election on February 9th with a new Legal Marijuana Now nominee. This means incumbent Rep. Angie Craig (D-Eagan) will have a break in service as her term will expire at the end of the 116th Congress. This new schedule will cause a number of ramifications and likely be subject to a lawsuit. It is possible the Justice Department will step in, since the law appears to violate the federal statute that requires all states to hold federal elections on the national Election Day.
Minnesota is again attracting more polling attention, this time from ABC News/Washington Post. While the Land of 10,000 Lakes has been polling much closer lately, the ABC/WP survey (9/8-13; 615 MN likely voters; live interview) finds former Vice President Joe Biden opening up a much larger 57-41% lead over President Trump. This is inconsistent with other recent data (five polls) that found the margin ranging from four to nine points.
It’s also seemingly at odds with ABC/WP’s own findings in next door Wisconsin. The survey there (9/8-13; 605 WI likely voters; live interview) gives Mr. Biden a six-point, 52-46% lead, which is consistent with other polling.
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