Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategies reports that their latest data (2/17-20; 500 MN likely Democratic primary voters), and one of the only polls for Minnesota’s Super Tuesday vote, show Sen. Amy Klobuchar now pulling ahead in her home state. The results find her total at 28%, followed by Sen. Bernie Sanders at 23%. The M-D numbers forecast only these two qualifying for delegate allocation. If this were to prove accurate, Sen. Klobuchar would take approximately 41 of the state’s 75 first ballot delegates, while Sen. Sanders would capture the remaining 34.
With polls throughout the Super Tuesday voting region now coming in rapid fire, a new survey from Minnesota joins those being released. Data from this state has been virtually non-existent, but Sen. Amy Klobuchar’s rise in the national race has spurned pollsters to pay some attention to her home state. Minnesota votes on Super Tuesday and has 75 first ballot delegates.
The University of Massachusetts at Lowell has been busy surveying several states. Their Minnesota study (2/12-19; 450 MN likely Democratic primary voters) sees Sen. Klobuchar climbing to the top of the candidate field for the first time here, or anywhere. The results find the home state Senator leading 27-21-16-10-9-9% over Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), former Mayor Pete Buttigieg, ex-Mayor Michael Bloomberg, and former Vice President Joe Biden, respectively.
If this poll proved wholly accurate, the first three candidates would qualify for delegate apportionment, with Sen. Klobuchar clinching the lion’s share of 32 committed first ballot delegate votes.
The US Census Bureau officers released their latest population projections in order to measure national population growth for the period between July 1, 2018 and July 1, 2019. The results find the national rate of growth slowing to 0.5%, mostly as a result of decreased immigration. The peak period for the decade came during the July 1, 2014 – July 1, 2015 period when the growth rate registered 0.73%.
With these numbers come the ability to project which states will gain and lose congressional seats in 2020 reapportionment. The national reapportionment will be calculated and announced after the 2020 census is completed. The states will receive their congressional seat quota a year from now, with a release typically coming during the period between Christmas and New Year’s.
If current projections prove correct, Texas looks to gain three seats, Florida two, with Arizona, Colorado, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon each slated to gain one. The losing states look to be Alabama, California, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and West Virginia.
If these projections prove true, California will lose a seat for the first time in history. It’s also realistic that the actual totals could yield a two-seat loss for Illinois or New York, and possibly both. Right now, it appears ten congressional seats will change states, but that number could grow. Usually, the actual numbers tend to differ slightly from the early published projections.
An unusual poll that the Cook Political Report and the Henry J. Kaiser Foundation sponsored and funded of the electorates in the four key Great Lakes states provides Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) some good news from her home state. According to these results, Sen. Klobuchar places second in the field with 15% support. She is ten points behind leader Elizabeth Warren, and one point ahead of former Vice President Joe Biden. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) is a further point behind Mr. Biden.
Sen. Warren also leads in two of the three other states, Michigan, Wisconsin, while Mr. Biden places first in Pennsylvania. The data generally shows a three-way race among Biden, Warren, and Sanders throughout the Great Lakes region.
In Minnesota, the political parties directly control the ballot for their nomination elections. Yesterday, the state Republican officials were required to inform the Secretary of State as to who has qualified for the 2020 Republican presidential ballot – Minnesota voters will cast ballots in a stand-alone presidential primary on Super Tuesday, March 3rd – and party officials presented only one name: President Donald Trump.
Particularly in states where the individual political parties finance their own nomination system, more and more will simply award their delegates to the President not only to show support, but also to save the cost of running a full-blown election. This means that fledgling presidential candidates like former Governor Bill Weld (MA) and ex-South Carolina Governor and US Representative Mark Sanford have little chance of even denting the President’s political armor.
Democrat Dan Feehan, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of the US Defense Department who lost a tight 50.1 – 49.7% contest to now-freshman Rep. Jim Hagedorn (R-Blue Earth/Rochester), announced yesterday that he will return for a re-match in 2020. We can expect another hard-fought campaign to occur in southern Minnesota next year.
House Agriculture chairman Collin Peterson (D-Detroit Lakes) could well face the most accomplished opponent since he originally came to the House after the 1990 election. Right after the holiday weekend, former Lt. Governor and state Senate President Michelle Fischbach (R) announced that she will challenge the veteran Congressman in the most pro-Trump district in the country that sends a Democrat to Washington. Mr. Trump carried this seat 62-31% in 2016. Mr. Peterson, against weak opposition, has failed to exceed 52.5% in his last two election campaigns.
Former one-term Congressman Jason Lewis (R) announced yesterday, as expected, that he will challenge Sen. Tina Smith (D) next year. Mr. Lewis was originally elected to the House in 2016, defeating businesswoman Angie Craig. In the 2018 election, Ms. Craig returned for a re-match and unseated the freshman incumbent. Instead of attempting to regain his 2nd District Congressional seat, the former radio talk show host has now entered the statewide campaign.
The move gives Republicans a credible Senate nominee. Sen. Smith was appointed to replace Al Franken when he resigned due to a sexual harassment scandal. She was then elected in a special election last November to fill the balance of the current term on a 53-42% vote over state Senator Karin Housley (R). Ms. Housley chose to seek re-election to her current position rather than return for a re-match in the US Senate race.
Political rumors had been abounding for the past couple of weeks that former Rep. Jason Lewis (R) had decided to challenge Sen. Tina Smith (D), but the ex-Congressman and radio talk show host would only admit to be “considering” his political options. Apparently, the rumors are about to bear fruit. Minnesota sources indicate that Mr. Lewis will announce his Senate candidacy at the State Fair next week.
Sen. Smith, the state’s former Lt. Governor, was appointed to replace Al Franken when he resigned from the Senate early in 2018. She was then elected to fill the balance of the term, scoring a 53-42% win over state Sen. Karin Housley (R-St. Mary’s Point). Mr. Lewis was elected to the House in 2016 with a 47-45% win over businesswoman Angie Craig (D). Last November, Ms. Craig rebounded to unseat Rep. Lewis with a 53-47% victory spread.
Sen. Smith will be favored for re-election, but President Trump targeting the state after losing by just 1.5 percentage points in 2016 suggests that serious political resources will be expended in the state that should assist Lewis in making the Senate race competitive.
Though House Agriculture Committee chairman Collin Peterson (D-Detroit Lakes) continues to remain coy about his re-election plans as always, it is presumed he will seek re-election for a 16th term next year. Officially, Rep. Peterson says he will make a final decision in January or February. But, he has already filed a 2020 campaign committee with the Federal Election Commission and is actively raising money.
His 7th District of Minnesota is an interesting seat. This is the most Republican and pro-Trump district (Trump ’16: 61.8%) in the country that elects a Democrat to the US House. It will almost assuredly go Republican if Mr. Peterson decides to retire.
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