The Change Research organization has previously conducted simultaneous online communication polls in several states, and they have done so again. Yesterday, the group released its surveys for Iowa and Wisconsin. The polls were both conducted over the August 9-11 period. The Iowa survey queried 621 likely Democratic caucus attenders, while the Wisconsin sampling sector featured 626 likely Dem primary voters.
Sen. Warren captures the lead in both states. In Iowa, she tops Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), former Vice President Joe Biden, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA), 28-17-17-13-8%, respectively. Wisconsin breaks similarly: Warren 29%, Sanders 24%, Biden 20%, Buttigieg 9%, and Harris 5%. Obviously, this data shows an uptick for Sens. Warren and Sanders and a possibly dangerous downturn for Mr. Biden.
Monmouth University released their latest Iowa presidential caucus poll yesterday (8/1-4; 401 likely Democratic caucus participants from a pool of 681 Iowa sampled registered voters) that projects former Vice President Joe Biden leading his opponents with 28% support. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) is second, as she is now in most polls, with 19%, while Sens. Kamala Harris (D-CA), Bernie Sanders (I-VT), and Mayor Pete Buttigieg trail with 11, 9, and 8%, respectively.
Interestingly, this is the first poll that finds any noticeable support for recent entry Tom Steyer, the billionaire former hedge fund manager who is heavily involved in the climate change and impeachment issues. Mr. Steyer, like Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), notches 3% support. Iowa is an important state for neighboring Sen. Klobuchar. Failing to show strength in the Hawkeye State will likely doom her presidential effort.
J.D. Scholten, last November’s Democratic nominee who held embattled Rep. Steve King (R-Kiron/Sioux City) to a 50-46% re-election victory, said yesterday that he will run again next year. Mr. Scholten was also considering entering the US Senate race.
Republican state Sen. Randy Feenstra (R-Hull) is already putting together a strong primary challenge to Rep. King, however, so Scholten may not get the chance to again face the controversial Congressman who is stripped of his committee assignments because of racial comments.
Sen. Feenstra has already almost quadrupled Rep. King’s current fundraising, reporting over $400,000 raised in the June 30th filing disclosure period as compared to King’s $153,000. The Congressman has only $18,000 cash-on-hand but pledges to seek re-election. President Trump carried the district, 61-33%, so Mr. Scholten appears to need a King re-nomination to have any chance of winning the seat in the next election.
Despite the national Democratic Party establishment lining up behind Des Moines real estate executive Theresa Greenfield to be their eventual US Senate nominee, retired Navy Admiral Michael Franken said at the end of last week that he may still join the race. Conceding that Greenfield has a “head start” over him in the Democratic primary, Admiral Franken believes he would be a stronger general election opponent for Sen. Joni Ernst (R).
Osceola Mayor Thomas Kedley was the only announced Republican in the open 2nd District congressional race, but now the GOP must look for another candidate. Already, Mayor Kedley has withdrawn from the race, saying he can make a better impact at the local level. Other Republicans, including former GOP Rep. Bobby Schilling (R-IL), have been mentioned as possible candidates, but as yet none have come forward. Democrats are coalescing behind former state Senator and 2018 Lt. Gov. nominee Rita Hart. Rep. David Loebsack (D-Iowa City) is retiring after seven terms.
Selzer & Company released their latest Iowa poll (6/2-5; 600 IA likely Caucus attenders from a universe of 3,776 active registered voters) and finds former Vice President Joe Biden leading Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, 24-16-15-14% with California Sen. Kamala Harris dropping well behind at 7% support.
In this poll, Mr. Biden’s support level has dropped below a quarter of the vote, and the combined Sanders-Warren-Buttigieg total of 45% is close to a 2:1 ratio over the top individual percentage. This suggests that Iowa, which began the downward spiral for Hillary Clinton’s campaign, also figures as one of Mr. Biden’s weakest states at least in the early going.
Earlier in the week, real estate executive Theresa Greenfield announced for the Democratic Senatorial nomination. Yesterday, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee’s leadership announced that they are already endorsing Ms. Greenfield over attorney Kimberly Graham and insurance broker and former congressional candidate Eddie Mauro. The winner of next year’s June 2nd primary will then face first-term Sen. Joni Ernst (R) in the November general election.
The DSCC move signals that there will be no further recruitment occurring in Iowa. Their first two choices, former Governor and US Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack and Rep. Cindy Axne (D-West Des Moines), both turned down overtures to run for the Senate.
Real Estate executive Theresa Greenfield (D), who was planning to run in the 3rd Congressional District last year until her nominating petitions contained falsified signatures causing her to withdraw, announced yesterday that she will return to the political wars and run for the US Senate. Ms. Greenfield is the first person to come forward in this race with wherewithal to raise sufficient funding to conduct a statewide campaign.
Originally, the Democratic leadership attempted to recruit former Governor and US Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack into the race, and then went to freshman Rep. Cindy Axne (D-West Des Moines) when he said no. Rep. Axne has already announced that she will seek re-election to the House.
Things are looking positive for former state Senator and Lt. Governor nominee Rita Hart to become a consensus Democratic candidate in the battle to replace retiring Rep. David Loebsack (D-Iowa City). Yesterday, Rep. Loebsack publicly endorsed Ms. Hart as his successor.
At this point, Ms. Hart is the only announced Democratic candidate. Republicans are expected to field several significant contenders but, so far, only Osceola Mayor Thomas Kedley is an announced candidate. The 2nd performs as a reliable Democratic district, but President Trump carried the seat 49-45% in 2016. Therefore, as an open contest, this race could become competitive.
Former state Senator and 2018 Lt. Governor nominee Rita Hart (D) is fast becoming a consensus 2nd District Democratic candidate to replace retiring Rep. David Loebsack (D-Iowa City). In the past two days, state Sen. Zach Wahls (D-Coralville), who was himself considering the congressional race, publicly endorsed Ms. Hart, as did state Rep. Wes Breckinridge (D-Newton). The latter man was also said to be contemplating becoming a congressional candidate.
Since President Trump carried this usually reliable Democratic congressional district, 49-45% in 2016, this open seat could become competitive particularly in a year with Mr. Trump returning to the ballot. So far, however, only Osceola Mayor Thomas Kedley has announced for the Republican nomination, but others are expected to join what should be a large candidate field.
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