The immediate post-debate Suffolk University/USA Today Iowa survey (10/16-18; 500 IA likely Democratic caucus participants) sees a tightening Democratic field. Here, former Vice President Joe Biden drops six points from the firm’s July poll to register only 18% support, just one point ahead of Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA). South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg is the big mover, however, more than doubling his July support to capture third position with 13% support. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) remains constant at 9% preference.
Quite likely, these responses are a reflection of how the candidates performed in the October 15th debate , so it remains to be seen if this new pattern will have staying power.
We continue to see tight polling coming from the Iowa Caucus prelude, scheduled for a vote on February 3rd. Emerson College (10/13-16; 317 IA likely Democratic Caucus attenders) finds former Vice President Joe Biden and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren tied at the top of the Democratic field with each posting 23% support figures.
South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg is seeing his Iowa efforts begin to bear fruit as he captures third position with 16% preference. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) drops to fourth position with 13%. California Sen. Kamala Harris who, like Buttigieg, also said she is making Iowa a top priority has failed to gel, dropping all the way down to a tie for eighth position with only 2% backing.
A total of 219 House Democrats and one Independent have signed the petition pledge indicating they will vote for at least some version of an impeachment resolution. Doing so would impeach, or indict, the President, and send the charge to the Senate for a potential trial and motion to remove from office. Among the signers are several members who have competitive re-elections, are in Trump districts, or have primary competition. The lone Independent, Rep. Justin Amash (I-MI), will likely face attacks from both sides as he presumably seeks re-election as an Independent or minor party nominee.
The Democrats supporting impeachment who already face credible general election opposition are (listed alphabetically by name) Reps: Cindy Axne (IA), Gil Cisneros (CA), Sharice Davids (KS), Antonio Delgado (NY), Abby Finkenauer (IA), Lizzie Fletcher (TX), Andy Kim (NJ), Susie Lee (NV), Elaine Luria (VA), Tom Malinowski (NJ), Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (FL), Chris Pappas (NH), Katie Porter (CA), Harley Rouda (CA), Elissa Slotkin (MI), Abigail Spanberger (VA), and Lauren Underwood (IL).
A new Iowa poll was released over the weekend, from Selzer & Company and the Des Moines Register newspaper (9/14-18; 602 IA likely Democratic Caucus attenders), and both segments find Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) moving past former Vice President Joe Biden.
This survey employs a different methodology in that they are combining the numbers for those who mentioned each candidate as their first or second choice. Under the first choice response, Sen. Warren posts a 22-20-11-9-6% advantage over Mr. Biden, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Mayor Pete Buttigieg, and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA), respectively. Combining first and second choice responses, the division expands to 42-30-21-18-16% with the candidates finishing in the same order.
Two new Iowa Democratic presidential polls both show South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg returning to the candidates’ top tier, reversing his recent single digit performance. According to the Civiqs research firm, polling for Iowa State University (9/13-17; 572 IA likely caucus attenders), Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) has opened up a lead over former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT). The results find the spread at 25-16-16%, with Mayor Buttigieg creeping up on second place with his own 13% showing.
The second Iowa survey, from Dave Binder Research (9/14-16; 500 IA likely Democratic caucus attenders), sees Mr. Biden still claiming the lead at 25%, with Sen. Warren closely behind with 23%. In this poll, Mayor Buttigieg eclipses Sen. Sanders for third place, posting 12% to the Vermont lawmaker’s 9%. While there are wide ranges for several candidates between these two polls, the Buttigieg number is consistent. Another contender needing to make a strong Iowa showing, Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), does so on this survey coming in just behind Sen. Sanders at 8% preference, by far her best showing in any political poll.
The YouGov international polling organization conducted simultaneous polls for the February voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. Though these states are small, having only 155 combined delegates, they tend to set the tone for Super Tuesday and the bulk of the voting. According to YouGov, former Vice President Joe Biden, and Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) are close in each of the four places. Mr. Biden leads in Iowa and South Carolina, Sen. Sanders places first in Nevada, and Sen. Warren tops the field in New Hampshire. None of the other candidates even reach double-digits in any of the four states.
The Democratic National Committee has officially killed an idea that the party leadership for both the Iowa and Nevada caucuses had been pushing. In order to increase participation in their respective presidential conclaves, the state party leaders were moving forward with a procedure to allow qualified voters to cast their caucus votes without attending the actual precinct meetings.
The national party leadership, at the behest of DNC chairman Tom Perez, voted at the end of last week to prohibit this proposed cyber-cast voting either through an online or telephone administrative process. Mr. Perez argued that the cyber-voting would not be sufficiently secure, hence the idea was rejected. As in the past, voters will have to attend the 2020 caucus meeting in order to vote, though both states will install a verified absentee ballot option.
Retired Navy Admiral Michael Franken announced that he is joining the US Senate Democratic primary to compete for the opportunity of challenging first-term Sen. Joni Ernst (R) next fall. To win, he will have to slip past real estate company executive Theresa Greenfield who the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has already endorsed and will support in the June 2020 primary election. Three other Democrats are also announced candidates. Sen. Ernst is favored for re-election, but Iowa always has the potential of becoming a highly competitive political state.
The Change Research organization has previously conducted simultaneous online communication polls in several states, and they have done so again. Yesterday, the group released its surveys for Iowa and Wisconsin. The polls were both conducted over the August 9-11 period. The Iowa survey queried 621 likely Democratic caucus attenders, while the Wisconsin sampling sector featured 626 likely Dem primary voters.
Sen. Warren captures the lead in both states. In Iowa, she tops Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), former Vice President Joe Biden, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA), 28-17-17-13-8%, respectively. Wisconsin breaks similarly: Warren 29%, Sanders 24%, Biden 20%, Buttigieg 9%, and Harris 5%. Obviously, this data shows an uptick for Sens. Warren and Sanders and a possibly dangerous downturn for Mr. Biden.
Monmouth University released their latest Iowa presidential caucus poll yesterday (8/1-4; 401 likely Democratic caucus participants from a pool of 681 Iowa sampled registered voters) that projects former Vice President Joe Biden leading his opponents with 28% support. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) is second, as she is now in most polls, with 19%, while Sens. Kamala Harris (D-CA), Bernie Sanders (I-VT), and Mayor Pete Buttigieg trail with 11, 9, and 8%, respectively.
Interestingly, this is the first poll that finds any noticeable support for recent entry Tom Steyer, the billionaire former hedge fund manager who is heavily involved in the climate change and impeachment issues. Mr. Steyer, like Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), notches 3% support. Iowa is an important state for neighboring Sen. Klobuchar. Failing to show strength in the Hawkeye State will likely doom her presidential effort.
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