The Civiqs polling firm tested the Iowa Caucus likely electorate (11/15-19; 814 IA likely Democratic Caucus participants) and confirms that Mayor Pete Buttigieg is surging within the state. This large sample survey finds him atop the field with a seven-point lead at 26%, followed by Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Bernie Sanders (I-VT) who garner 19 and 18%, respectively, with former Vice President Joe Biden lagging badly behind with only 12% support.
International pollster YouGov conducted simultaneous surveys in the first four voting states and finds former Vice President Joe Biden having trouble in Iowa and New Hampshire but doing well in Nevada and South Carolina. All of the surveys were conducted between Nov 6-13, with sampling sizes ranging from 570 to 877 likely Democratic voters.
In Iowa, Mr. Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) are tied with just 22% apiece. Following in a virtual three-way tie is South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 21%, while Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) closely trails with 19%. Mr. Biden is significantly behind Sen. Warren in New Hampshire (31-22%), while Sen. Sanders and Mayor Buttigieg record 20 and 16%, respectively.
Conversely, Mr. Biden opens up a lead in Nevada, 33-23-21-9%, over Sanders, Warren and Buttigieg, where, in South Carolina, the former Vice President is staked to a wide 45-17-15-8% advantage over Warren, Sanders, and Buttigieg. The question that can’t yet be answered is whether Mr. Biden could withstand losing the first two nominating events without weakening his vote base in Nevada and South Carolina.
The new Selzer & Company survey for the Des Moines Register (11/8-13; 2,102 IA active registered voter contacts; 500 likely IA Democratic Caucus attenders) released over the weekend finds South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg now building a sizable lead for the upcoming February 3rd vote.
According to Des Moines-based Selzer & Company, commonly viewed as the most accurate Iowa pollster, Mr. Buttigieg has 25% support. His next closest competitor is Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) with 16%, while former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) both closely trail with 15%, apiece. This is the second poll within the week that placed Buttigieg atop the field with over 20% support.
Quinnipiac University tested the Iowa electorate (10/30-11/5; 698 IA likely Democratic Caucus attenders) for the first time in their existence, and their initial entry into the state finds a tight four-way battle emerging in the Democratic presidential caucus. The Q-Poll results find Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) topping the field with 26% as South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg makes a dash for second place, posting 19%, while Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and ex-VP Joe Biden trail with 17 and 15%, respectively.
In the lower tier, Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) bumps up to 5%, as Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) trails with 4%, and Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI), billionaire Tom Steyer, and businessman Andrew Yang all finish with 3% support. Now less than three months from the first votes being cast in the Iowa Caucus, it is time is to pay greater attention to the Hawkeye State data and this developing political horse race.
The new Civiqs/Iowa State University survey (10/18-22; 598 IA likely Democratic primary voters) finds a much different Hawkeye State standing than in previous polling. Here, Civiqs sees Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) posting 28%, now followed by South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg who records 20% preference. In third position is Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) at 18%, and finally former Vice President Joe Biden attracting a cycle-low 12% support. Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, who must do well in Iowa to keep her campaign alive, still manages only 4% of the proposed vote.
Since this poll is producing much different numbers than any other available data, the question must be asked whether Civiqs is setting a new trend or releasing an outlier.
The immediate post-debate Suffolk University/USA Today Iowa survey (10/16-18; 500 IA likely Democratic caucus participants) sees a tightening Democratic field. Here, former Vice President Joe Biden drops six points from the firm’s July poll to register only 18% support, just one point ahead of Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA). South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg is the big mover, however, more than doubling his July support to capture third position with 13% support. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) remains constant at 9% preference.
Quite likely, these responses are a reflection of how the candidates performed in the October 15th debate , so it remains to be seen if this new pattern will have staying power.
We continue to see tight polling coming from the Iowa Caucus prelude, scheduled for a vote on February 3rd. Emerson College (10/13-16; 317 IA likely Democratic Caucus attenders) finds former Vice President Joe Biden and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren tied at the top of the Democratic field with each posting 23% support figures.
South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg is seeing his Iowa efforts begin to bear fruit as he captures third position with 16% preference. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) drops to fourth position with 13%. California Sen. Kamala Harris who, like Buttigieg, also said she is making Iowa a top priority has failed to gel, dropping all the way down to a tie for eighth position with only 2% backing.
A total of 219 House Democrats and one Independent have signed the petition pledge indicating they will vote for at least some version of an impeachment resolution. Doing so would impeach, or indict, the President, and send the charge to the Senate for a potential trial and motion to remove from office. Among the signers are several members who have competitive re-elections, are in Trump districts, or have primary competition. The lone Independent, Rep. Justin Amash (I-MI), will likely face attacks from both sides as he presumably seeks re-election as an Independent or minor party nominee.
The Democrats supporting impeachment who already face credible general election opposition are (listed alphabetically by name) Reps: Cindy Axne (IA), Gil Cisneros (CA), Sharice Davids (KS), Antonio Delgado (NY), Abby Finkenauer (IA), Lizzie Fletcher (TX), Andy Kim (NJ), Susie Lee (NV), Elaine Luria (VA), Tom Malinowski (NJ), Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (FL), Chris Pappas (NH), Katie Porter (CA), Harley Rouda (CA), Elissa Slotkin (MI), Abigail Spanberger (VA), and Lauren Underwood (IL).
A new Iowa poll was released over the weekend, from Selzer & Company and the Des Moines Register newspaper (9/14-18; 602 IA likely Democratic Caucus attenders), and both segments find Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) moving past former Vice President Joe Biden.
This survey employs a different methodology in that they are combining the numbers for those who mentioned each candidate as their first or second choice. Under the first choice response, Sen. Warren posts a 22-20-11-9-6% advantage over Mr. Biden, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Mayor Pete Buttigieg, and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA), respectively. Combining first and second choice responses, the division expands to 42-30-21-18-16% with the candidates finishing in the same order.
Two new Iowa Democratic presidential polls both show South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg returning to the candidates’ top tier, reversing his recent single digit performance. According to the Civiqs research firm, polling for Iowa State University (9/13-17; 572 IA likely caucus attenders), Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) has opened up a lead over former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT). The results find the spread at 25-16-16%, with Mayor Buttigieg creeping up on second place with his own 13% showing.
The second Iowa survey, from Dave Binder Research (9/14-16; 500 IA likely Democratic caucus attenders), sees Mr. Biden still claiming the lead at 25%, with Sen. Warren closely behind with 23%. In this poll, Mayor Buttigieg eclipses Sen. Sanders for third place, posting 12% to the Vermont lawmaker’s 9%. While there are wide ranges for several candidates between these two polls, the Buttigieg number is consistent. Another contender needing to make a strong Iowa showing, Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), does so on this survey coming in just behind Sen. Sanders at 8% preference, by far her best showing in any political poll.
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