Returns are still just trickling in from last week’s June 23rd primary, with a bulk of the vote totals scheduled to be released today. At this point, retired Marine Corps helicopter pilot Amy McGrath has usurped state Rep. Charles Booker’s (D-Louisville) small lead, but still less than 100,000 voters statewide have been posted. With what appears to be a record turnout, the result from hundreds of thousands of mailed votes remain uncertain.
In addition to potentially definitive numbers coming today from Kentucky and possibly New York, the Colorado, Oklahoma, and Utah primaries begin.
While many pollsters are returning to sampling registered voters without overlaying likely voter projections in choosing a polling universe for their June research studies, Public Policy Polling is now referring to their latest samples as simply, “voters.” Without defining their term in the released analysis, this could mean self-identified voters or simply adults. The classification suggests the error factor will be greater among “voters” rather than definitive registered voters and certainly so when compared to a likely voter screen.
That being said, the PPP new Georgia poll is out (6/25-26; 734 GA “voters”), and the results give former Vice President Joe Biden a 49-45% edge in this most critical of battleground states. The Democratic nominee, however, being up at this point in the election cycle is not particularly unusual. Looking back at the 2016 race, the Real Clear Politics polling archives reveals that while Mr. Trump led in almost every Georgia poll four years ago, two in early August, from the Atlanta Journal Constitution and JMC Analytics, found Hillary Clinton topping her opponent by four and seven points, respectively.
Susquehanna Polling & Research, a Harrisburg, PA based survey firm, yesterday released the results of their new Keystone State study (6/15-23; 715 PA likely general election voters). According to their likely voters data, former Vice President Joe Biden would lead President Trump, 46-41% in the critically important swing state.
Though down, this poll finds the President’s Pennsylvania standing a bit better than during a similar time period in 2016. According to a Marist College/NBC News poll conducted during the July 5-10 period four years ago, Hillary Clinton polled nine points ahead of Mr. Trump. Overall, 59 surveys were published of the 2016 Pennsylvania electorate, and Ms. Clinton led in 56 of those, though most projected a lead considerably smaller than the NBC/Marist survey cited above.
The Trafalgar Group, the only polling firm to correctly project President Trump winning a close Wisconsin contest in 2016, again defies the polling mainstream. Their new Badger State survey (6/23-25; 1,021 WI likely voters) reveals a one point, 46-45% edge, in the President’s favor. A trio of other June polls from three separate pollsters give former Vice President Joe Biden leads between six and eleven points. During the 2016 election cycle, the Trafalgar Group poll was the only survey during the entire election cycle (33 polls) that found Mr. Trump leading Hillary Clinton. He would win the state by 22,748 votes.
The previously mentioned Public Policy Polling survey (see President section above) also tested the Georgia special Senate election among those described as “voters.” Though closing, PPP finds Rep. Doug Collins (R-Gainesville) still leading the jungle primary field but with a reduced margin of 23-21-20% over appointed Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) and Baptist pastor Raphael Warnock (D).
In run-off pairings pitting each Republican against Rev. Warnock, Rep. Collins would hold a 43-41% advantage, while Sen. Loeffler would trail him, 40-43%.
Dan Jones & Associates, which found former Gov. Jon Huntsman leading Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox in their previous Republican primary poll, now rates the contest as “too close to call.” Their latest survey (6/17-24; 1,247 UT likely Republican primary voters) sees Mr. Cox holding the slightest 30-29% lead over Mr. Huntsman.
In good news for Cox, those 492 respondents who said they have already voted broke 35-30% for the Lt. Governor. Among the 755 sample members who have not cast their ballot, Mr. Huntsman was up 29-27%. Also competing in the race is former state House Speaker Greg Hughes, who has been gaining in polling support, and former Utah Republican Party chairman Thomas Wright.
Though the primary is tomorrow, Utah has switched to an all-mail format meaning that it may be several days until we see a declared winner. The eventual GOP nominee is rated as a heavy favorite to succeed retiring Gov. Gary Herbert (R) in November.
Last week as we reported, the Cygnal research group released survey data (6/13-16; 560 AL likely general election voters) that found retired Auburn University head football coach Tommy Tuberville (R) leading Sen. Doug Jones (D), 50-36%, and former US Attorney General and Sen. Jeff Sessions (R) holding a 45-35% advantage over the first-term Senator. The postponed GOP runoff will be decided July 14th.
At the end of last week, the Democratic firm ALG Research (6/18-22; 600 AL likely general election voters) countered with figures showing a much closer race, though still posting both Tuberville and Sessions ahead of Jones. ALG finds Mr. Tuberville holding a 47-44% general election lead, while Mr. Sessions’ edge was a similar 45-43 percent.
There has been substantial political media coverage suggesting that former Colorado Governor and ex-presidential candidate John Hickenlooper is losing support against ex-state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff in tomorrow’s Democratic primary.
Survey USA, in their final pre-primary Colorado poll, finds a different conclusion, however. In their poll (6/19-24; 575 CO likely Democratic primary voters), Mr. Hickenlooper is again brandishing a very strong 58-28% lead over his Democratic primary opponent.
Public Policy Polling released the first 5th District general election survey numbers since the Republican district convention and the Democratic primary now that incumbent Rep. Denver Riggleman (R-Manassas) is eliminated from the competition. According to PPP (6/22-23; 726 VA-5 self-described registered voters) former Campbell County Supervisor Bob Good (R) has a slight 43-41% edge over Charlottesville physician Cameron Webb (D).
PPP asked no ideological push questions on this poll, but Mr. Good is under-performing within what remains a decidedly Republican district. President Trump pulls a 50:47% job approval ratio, and the generic Republican candidate out-polls the generic Democrat, 49-42%. Mr. Good’s favorability ratio in 26:23% favorable to unfavorable, and Dr. Webb registers a 27:16% rating.
Only 10,377 votes have been tabulated in Jefferson County, Kentucky, but they are enough to vault state Rep. Charles Booker (D-Louisville) into the statewide lead over retired Marine Corps helicopter pilot Amy McGrath in their battle for the Democratic US Senate nomination. The new count shows Mr. Booker with a 43.5 – 40.0% edge, or a 2,587 vote spread. Still, over half-million votes wait to be counted so the race clearly remains undecided. It does appear from all indications, however, that the end result will be very close between the two candidates.
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