Several news outlets have now projected former US Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford) as the winner in California’s tight 21st Congressional District. Still with votes to count, but now holding a margin that looks beyond freshman Rep. T.J. Cox’s (D-Fresno) reach, Mr. Valadao has still not yet declared victory nor has Rep. Cox admitted defeat. With approximately 10,000 votes to count, Mr. Valadao’s lead is 1,618 votes. Analyst estimates suggest that Rep. Cox is forced to garner a likely unreachable percentage to overturn the Valadao lead. A Republican victory here moves the internal House GOP conference number to 210 with three races outstanding.
San Juan Capistrano Mayor Brian Maryott (R), who failed to reach the general election in the 2018 congressional race and fell to Rep. Mike Levin (D-San Juan Capistrano) 53-47% earlier this month, announced that he will run again in 2022. Redistricting will change this seat, and all others, so it is difficult to judge future political prospects at this point in time.
The two California races in Districts 21 and 25 remain outstanding with mail votes still being counted. There was progress in both razor-thin contests, yesterday. In the 21st District, Rep. T.J. Cox (D-Fresno) continues to trail former Rep. David Valadao (R), but the margin separating the two is down to 1,805 votes. In the race between Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Santa Clarita) and state Assemblywoman Christy Smith (D-Newhall), the latest totals increase Rep. Garcia’s small 104-vote lead to 422 votes.
According to the Secretary of State’s office, 440,372 ballots remain to be counted throughout California. Attempting to estimate what may be remaining in Districts 21 and 25, it appears there could be as many as 14,000 ballots still uncounted in the Cox-Valadao race and approximately 6,000 in the Garcia-Smith contest.
The Republicans have now gained a net of 9 seats in the House with five races remaining uncalled. In the five outstanding contests, Republicans lead in four.
One of them, in Iowa, has been certified as a 47-vote win for state Sen. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Ottumwa), but Democratic nominee Rita Hart has requested a recount in all 24 of the 2nd District’s counties, which began yesterday. Republicans, including Rep. Mike Garcia (R-CA), hold tenuous leads in the two remaining California races. Former Rep. Claudia Tenney (R-NY) looks poised to re-claim New York’s 22nd District, and Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-NJ) continues to lead as final counting winds down in his New Jersey re-election race.
Another race will be decided in a Louisiana December 5th runoff election. There, former congressional aide Luke Letlow and state Rep. Lance Harris (R-Alexandria) will advance to a secondary vote. Since both are Republicans, the GOP is assured of holding the open seat regardless of the outcome.
In California’s 53 House districts, 46 of the incumbents seeking re-election have won another term. In the state’s three open seats, each party held the districts they were risking. Republican Jay Obernolte replaces Rep. Paul Cook (R-Yucca Valley); former Rep. Darrell Issa (R) returns in District 50 to assume the vacancy that Rep. Duncan Hunter’s (R-Alpine) resignation caused; and San Diego Democrat Sara Jacobs defeated fellow Democrat Georgette Gomez in District 53 to replace retiring Rep. Susan Davis (D-San Diego).
Two incumbents, Reps. Gil Cisneros (D-Yorba Linda) and Harley Rouda (D-Laguna Beach) were defeated at the hands of Republicans Young Kim and Michelle Steel. Two races remain uncalled. Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Santa Clarita) leads state Assemblywoman Christy Smith (D-Newhall) by a scant 104 votes with mail votes remaining to be counted in both Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. Rep. T.J. Cox (D-Fresno) trails former Rep. David Valadao (R) by 2,065 votes with mail votes remaining in all four of the 21st District’s counties.
Since seven House races were called yesterday, we now see 16 congressional contests called, eight of which are in New York and three in California.
Below is the list of the outstanding races and their current status:
AK-AL: Rep. Don Young (R)
Status: 59.2%; Reporting 69%
R+ 43,761 votes
CA-21: David Valadao (R)
Status: 51.4% ; Reporting 71%
R+ 4,041 votes
CA-25: Rep. Mike Garcia (R)
Status: 50.0%; Reporting 86%
R+ 159 votes
CA-39: Young Kim (R)
Status: 50.6%; Reporting 97%
R+ 4,168 votes
IA-2: Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)
Status: 50.0%; Reporting 100%
R+ 40 votes
IL-14: Rep. Lauren Underwood (D)
Status: 50.4%; Reporting 100%
D+ 3,524 votes
LA-5: Luke Letlow (R)
Status: 33.1%; Reporting 100%
Runoff - Dec 5
NY-1: Rep. Lee Zeldin (R)
Status: 61.3%; Reporting 100%
R+ 65,120 votes
NY-2: Andrew Garbarino (R)
Status: 57.8%; Reporting 100%
R+ 44,898 votes
NY-3: George Santos (R)
Status: 50.5%; Reporting 100%
R+ 4,171 votes
NY-11: Nicole Malliotakis (R)
Status: 57.9%; Reporting 95%
R+ 37,158 votes
NY-18: Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D)
Status: 51.0%; Reporting 100%
D+ 7,896 votes
NY-19: Rep. Antonio Delgado (D)
Status: 50.4%; Reporting 100%
D+ 7,893 votes
NY-22: Claudia Tenney (R)
Status: 54.5%; Reporting 100%
R+ 28,394 votes
NY-24: Rep. John Katko (R)
Status: 58.5%; Reporting 100%
R+ 55,102 votes
UT-4: Burgess Owens (R)
Status: 47.6%; Reporting 95%
R+ 1,780 votes
13 of 16 R Leads
Currently, we see 21 US House races uncalled, eight of which are in New York and six in California. The New York absentee ballots counting process will begin today. The ballot reception period in California lasts all the way until November 20th. Therefore, we probably won’t see final CA results until Thanksgiving.
At this point, Republicans have gained a net five seats in the House. Of the 21 outstanding races they lead in 15, but many will flip back toward the Democrat when all votes are counted. At this point, an overall GOP gain in the House between seven and nine seats appears reasonable. Even the smaller number would put the Republicans within ten seats of re-claiming the majority in 2022.
Two Senate races were called yesterday, one for Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) who scored a 51-42% victory over state House Speaker Sara Gideon (D-Freeport). Ms. Gideon conceded the race yesterday even though the count had not ended. In Michigan, Sen. Gary Peters (D) was projected with a very close win (49.6 – 48.5%) over GOP challenger John James.
The two calls mean that the high number for the Republican majority is 52, with the Democratic maximum being 51. The most likely outcome from the current trends and potentially projecting the runoff election under what may be a Biden victory at the presidential level is either a Republican majority of 51 or 52 seats.
In the House, 40 races remain uncalled, yet many of them are now reporting 100% of the vote being received. Of the 40, the Republicans lead in 25 and the Democrats in 15. This would translate in a Republican net gain in the House of most likely between five and nine seats.
Below is a list of the races that remain uncalled and which candidate is currently leading.
Alaska: Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) - Status: 62.3%; Reporting: 50%
Georgia-A: Sen. David Perdue (R) - must reach 50%; Status: 50.2%; Reporting: 97%
Georgia-B: Rev. Raphael Warnock (D) - Status: 32.5%; Reporting: 96%
Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) - Status: 26.2%; Reporting: Runoff
Maine: Sen. Susan Collins (R) - Winner; Status: 51.1%
Michigan: Sen. Gary Peters (D) - Winner; Status: 49.6%
North Carolina: Sen. Thom Tillis (R) - Status: 48.7%; Reporting: 93%
AK-AL: Rep. Don Young (R) - Status: 63.3%; Reporting: 53%
AZ-1: Rep. Tom O'Halleran (D) - Status: 52.1%; Reporting: 92%
AZ-6: Hiral Tipirneni (D) - Status: 50.3%; Reporting: 76%
CA-4: Rep. Tom McClintock (R) - Status: 52.9%; Reporting: 87%
CA-8: Jay Obernolte (R) - Status: 53.3%; Reporting: 37%
CA-21: David Valadao (R) - Status: 51.4%; Reporting: 42%
CA-25: Christy Smith (D) - Status: 50.3%; Reporting: 77%
CA-39: Young Kim (R) - Status: 50.2%; Reporting: 89%
CA-48: Michelle Steel (R) - Status: 50.3%; Reporting: 93%
CA-50: Darrell Issa (R) - Status: 52.2%; Reporting: 51%
GA-7: Carolyn Bourdeaux (D) - Status: 51.2%; Reporting: 100%
IA-2: Marianette Miller-Meeks (R) - Status: 50.0%; Reporting: 100%
IL-14: Jim Oberweis (R) - Status: 50.1%; Reporting: 100%
IL-17: Cheri Bustos (D) - Status: 51.8%; Reporting: 100%
IN-5: Victoria Spartz (R) - Status: 50.2%; Reporting: 99%
MI-3: Peter Meijer (R) - Status: 53.1%; Reporting: 99%
MI-5: Dan Kildee (D) - Status: 54.3%; Reporting: 100%
MI-11: Haley Stevens (D) - Status: 50.0%; Reporting: 97%
MN-1: Rep. Jim Hagedorn (R) - Status: 48.6%; Reporting: 100%
MN-2: Rep. Angie Craig (D) - Status: 48.2%; Reporting: 100%
NJ-2: Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R) - Status: 51.0%; Reporting: 75%
NV-3: Rep. Susie Lee (D) - Status: 48.2%; Reporting: 85%
NV-4: Rep. Steven Horsford (D) - Status: 49.7%; Reporting: 65%
NY-1: Rep. Lee Zeldin (R) - Status: 61.3%; Reporting: 99%
NY-2: Andrew Garbarino (R) - Status: 58.1%; Reporting: 99%
NY-3: George Santos (R) - Status: 50.5%; Reporting: 99%
NY-4: Rep. Kathleen Rice (D) - Status: 52.0%; Reporting: 100%
NY-11: Nicole Malliotakis (R) - Status: 57.9%; Reporting: 95%
NY-18: Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D) - Status: 50.8%; Reporting: 100%
NY-19: Rep. Antonio Delgado (D) - Status: 51.3%; Reporting: 98%
NY-22: Claudia Tenney (R) - Status: 54.9%; Reporting: 100%
NY-24: Rep. John Katko (R) - Status: 58.5%; Reporting: 100%
PA-7: Lisa Scheller (R) - Status: 50.7%; Reporting: 86%
PA-8: Jim Bognet (R) - Status: 50.5%; Reporting: 86%
PA-10: Rep. Scott Perry (R) - Status: 54.9%; Reporting: 89%
PA-17: Sean Parnell (R) - Status: 51.0%; Reporting: 94%
TX-24: Beth Van Duyne (R) - Status: 48.8%; Reporting: 99%
UT-4: Rep. Ben McAdams (D) - Status: 48.2%; Reporting: 69%
VA-7: Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) - Status: 50.6%; Reporting: 100%
WA-3: Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) - Status: 54.7%; Reporting: 80%
A Survey USA poll for KGTV-Channel 2 and the San Diego Union Tribune (10/22-26; 538 CA-50 likely voters from a pool of 650 adults; recorded message interview & online) finds former Congressman Darrell Issa (R) rebounding to take a double-digit lead in his quest to return to the House.
The S-USA result forecasts Mr. Issa to be holding a 51-40% advantage over Democratic nominee Ammar Campa-Najjar, who was also the 2018 party candidate who lost to then-Rep. Duncan Hunter (R), 52-48%. A poll two weeks ago, from Strategies 360 (10/10-13; 401 CA-50 likely voters), projected a dead heat (42-42%) between the two men. The Survey USA analysis suggests that women, in particular, are swinging back toward Issa in the campaign’s closing days.
In the Southern California race to replace retiring Rep. Susan Davis (D-San Diego), two Democrats qualified for the general election under the state’s top-two primary system. Survey USA polled this contest for local San Diego television station KGTV (10/15-18; 511 CA-53 likely voters; live interview) and found former State Department official Sara Jacobs posting a large lead over San Diego City Council President Georgette Gomez, 40-27%. Ms. Jacobs is a second time congressional candidate, running for the first time in the San Diego-Orange County 49th District that Rep. Mike Levin (D-San Juan Capistrano) currently represents.
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