Polling for the Democratic US Senate primary that will be held on Super Tuesday, March 3rd, has consistently shown very little separation among the 12 candidates running for the party nomination to eventually oppose veteran Sen. John Cornyn (R). Until a just released YouGov/University of Houston poll (2/6-18; 1,352 TX likely Democratic primary voters; online) found retired Army helicopter pilot M.J. Hegar putting some distance between herself and the rest of the field, no one had even reached 15% support in any survey.
YouGov sees Ms. Hegar posting 22%, fifteen points better than her next closest opponent, and suggesting that she will secure one of the positions for the certain May 26th run-off election. Battling for the second position are state Sen. Royce West (D-Dallas) with 7%, former Congressman and 2014 gubernatorial nominee Chris Bell (6%), and civil rights activist Cristina Tzintzun Ramirez (4%). Clearly, the Democratic nomination battle is still wide open, which gives Sen. Cornyn another major advantage heading into his third re-election campaign. The Senator was first elected in 2002 after serving as Texas’ Attorney General and on the state Supreme Court.
The University of Massachusetts at Lowell tested the Texas electorate (2/12-18; 600 TX likely Democratic primary voters) and project Sen. Bernie Sanders and former Vice President Joe Biden vying for the lead with the former man having a 23-20% edge. Former Mayor Michael Bloomberg and Sen. Elizabeth Warren are likely in delegate allocation position with 18 and 14% support. No other candidate even reaches the 5% plateau.
The Texas Tribune and University of Texas teamed to field a statewide survey (1/31-2/9; 1,200 TX registered voters; online) and, for the first time in this election cycle, found a Democratic US Senate candidate breaking 15%. According to TT/UT, retired Army helicopter pilot M.J. Hegar has increased her slight advantage to 22%, leading non-profit executive Cristina Tzintzun Ramirez and former US Representative and 2014 gubernatorial nominee Chris Bell who posts 9 and 7% support factors. State Sen. Royce West (D-Dallas) and Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards are next with 6% apiece.
It is clear from all data that the top two finishers will advance to a May 26th run-off election since no candidate is close to the 50% majority that would clinch the party nomination. Despite Ms. Hegar’s lead, virtually all of the candidates are still alive to qualify for the secondary election since individual preference is low and the undecided/refused to answer figure is high at 40% with the March 3rd primary on the horizon.
On the heels of last week’s Texas Lyceum poll that found retired Army helicopter pilot M.J. Hegar leading the Democratic pack of dozen candidates with just 11% support, the University of Texas at Tyler released their new data (1/21-30; 1,169 TX likely Democratic primary voters; 305 via telephone interview; 864 online responses) and sees Ms. Hegar also placing first but with just 8% as compared to Sen. Royce West’s (D-Dallas) 6%, and attorney Annie Garcia with 5%. All of the other candidates, including former Congressman and gubernatorial nominee Chris Bell and Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards, are polling with 4% or less.
With almost 60% of the electorate responding as undecided just a month before the Texas primary virtually any of the twelve candidates could still qualify for what will be a certain May 26th run-off election.
The Texas Lyceum survey (1/10-19; 401 TX likely Democratic primary voters) that tested the Democratic presidential field also looked at the impending Senate primary that features 12 competitors. Like other research studies, Lyceum finds no candidate holding a major advantage and nine of them having a statistical chance of making a secondary run-off election. The Texas primary is March 3rd. If no one receives 50% in that election – a virtual certainty – the top two finishers will advance to a May 26th run-off election. The eventual nominee faces three-term Senator John Cornyn (R) in November.
The results find retired Army helicopter pilot and ex-congressional candidate M.J. Hegar pulling 11%, state Sen. Royce West (D-Dallas) with 8%, non-profit executive Cristina Tzintzun Ramirez at 7%, former Congressman and gubernatorial nominee Chris Bell, Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards, pastor and civil rights activist Michael Cooper, retired Army officer Victor Harris, and businesswoman Sara Hernandez each with 5%, and attorney Annie Garcia posting 4% support.
Former Vice President Joe Biden has been polling well in Texas ever since former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-El Paso) exited the presidential campaign. Now, however, the Texas Lyceum survey (1/10-19; 401 TX likely Democratic primary voters) finds a much closer standing. The data still yields a first place finish for Mr. Biden at 28%, but Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) is close behind with 26. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) follows with 13%, while ex-NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg, former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) all fall into single digits.
Texas has 228 first ballot delegates and is the second largest state to apportion its delegates on Super Tuesday. If this poll were wholly accurate, Mr. Biden would claim approximately 41 at-large first ballot votes, while Sen. Sanders would have 38. Texas, like California, has more delegates in their districts than at-large. Texas also uses their 31 state Senate districts to apportion instead of their 36 congressional seats. Therefore, another 149 first ballot delegate votes will be decided in the individual state Senate districts.
The Club for Growth conservative Super PAC announced its support for Republican primary challenger Chris Putnam, who is challenging veteran Rep. Kay Granger (R-Ft. Worth) in the March 3rd Republican primary. Mr. Putnam began the race by raising $456,000 before the September 30th campaign finance deadline and is expected to announce another sizable haul when the year-end reports are published soon after February 1st.
The Club’s entrance into this race signals that Mr. Putnam will attract even more financial support, meaning this contest is on the road to becoming a top tier primary challenge. Mr. Putnam is a local businessman and former Colleyville City Councilman.
Eight states will host their 2020 primary elections in March, meaning they will feature a full ballot to compliment the presidential race. Voters will select a full slate of nominees in Alabama, Arkansas, California, Illinois, Mississippi, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas on March 3, 10, or 17th. This means, at the end of March, nominees could be fully chosen for six Senate races and 151 congressional districts. It is possible, should no candidate reach the minimum nomination percentage in various states featuring a qualifying figure, that run-offs could be held in some Alabama, Mississippi, North Carolina, and Texas contests.
All of the aforementioned states have completed their candidate filing deadlines with the exception of Mississippi. There, candidacies become official on January 10th. West Virginia and Kentucky candidates will file on January 25th and 28th, respectively for May 12th and May 19th primary elections.
Former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julian Castro, one of the first to enter the Democratic presidential nomination contest, yesterday became the 13th candidate to leave the race. Saying “it is simply not our time,” Mr. Castro ends his campaign exactly one month before the first votes will be cast in the Iowa Caucuses. Remaining are 14 active contenders, though only four, at this point and assuming the nomination contest does not end in an open convention, have a legitimate chance of becoming the party nominee.
The US Census Bureau officers released their latest population projections in order to measure national population growth for the period between July 1, 2018 and July 1, 2019. The results find the national rate of growth slowing to 0.5%, mostly as a result of decreased immigration. The peak period for the decade came during the July 1, 2014 – July 1, 2015 period when the growth rate registered 0.73%.
With these numbers come the ability to project which states will gain and lose congressional seats in 2020 reapportionment. The national reapportionment will be calculated and announced after the 2020 census is completed. The states will receive their congressional seat quota a year from now, with a release typically coming during the period between Christmas and New Year’s.
If current projections prove correct, Texas looks to gain three seats, Florida two, with Arizona, Colorado, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon each slated to gain one. The losing states look to be Alabama, California, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and West Virginia.
If these projections prove true, California will lose a seat for the first time in history. It’s also realistic that the actual totals could yield a two-seat loss for Illinois or New York, and possibly both. Right now, it appears ten congressional seats will change states, but that number could grow. Usually, the actual numbers tend to differ slightly from the early published projections.
The Rundown Blog
Before you vote, learn more about the candidates who will support a pro-jobs America.