Former Vice President Joe Biden has a national polling lead for the Democratic presidential nomination largely because of his strong standing in the southern states. The latest North Carolina survey from Public Policy Polling (1/10-12; 509 NC likely Democratic primary voters) underscores Mr. Biden’s southern dominance. Here, he leads Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren 31-18-15%, with Mayor Michael Bloomberg scoring 8%, while ex-Mayor Pete Buttigieg and businessman Andrew Yang record 6 and 5%, respectively.
Even here, with Mr. Biden projected to be holding a sustainable lead, polling results still project that at least three of the candidates would qualify for delegate apportionment.
Public Policy Polling just released a survey of North Carolina Democratic primary voters (1/10-12; 509 NC likely Democratic primary voters) to determine how the Senate nomination battle might end. The winner faces Republican Sen. Thom Tillis in the general election. The PPP results find former state Sen. Cal Cunningham, the Democratic establishment’s backed candidate, leading state Sen. Erica Smith (D-Gaston) 22-12% with an overly large undecided factor of 60%. The North Carolina primary is scheduled for March 3rd, so this race will be quickly gaining momentum.
Eight states will host their 2020 primary elections in March, meaning they will feature a full ballot to compliment the presidential race. Voters will select a full slate of nominees in Alabama, Arkansas, California, Illinois, Mississippi, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas on March 3, 10, or 17th. This means, at the end of March, nominees could be fully chosen for six Senate races and 151 congressional districts. It is possible, should no candidate reach the minimum nomination percentage in various states featuring a qualifying figure, that run-offs could be held in some Alabama, Mississippi, North Carolina, and Texas contests.
All of the aforementioned states have completed their candidate filing deadlines with the exception of Mississippi. There, candidacies become official on January 10th. West Virginia and Kentucky candidates will file on January 25th and 28th, respectively for May 12th and May 19th primary elections.
The US Census Bureau officers released their latest population projections in order to measure national population growth for the period between July 1, 2018 and July 1, 2019. The results find the national rate of growth slowing to 0.5%, mostly as a result of decreased immigration. The peak period for the decade came during the July 1, 2014 – July 1, 2015 period when the growth rate registered 0.73%.
With these numbers come the ability to project which states will gain and lose congressional seats in 2020 reapportionment. The national reapportionment will be calculated and announced after the 2020 census is completed. The states will receive their congressional seat quota a year from now, with a release typically coming during the period between Christmas and New Year’s.
If current projections prove correct, Texas looks to gain three seats, Florida two, with Arizona, Colorado, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon each slated to gain one. The losing states look to be Alabama, California, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and West Virginia.
If these projections prove true, California will lose a seat for the first time in history. It’s also realistic that the actual totals could yield a two-seat loss for Illinois or New York, and possibly both. Right now, it appears ten congressional seats will change states, but that number could grow. Usually, the actual numbers tend to differ slightly from the early published projections.
When Rep. Mark Meadows (R-Skyland/Asheville) announced his retirement less than 48 hours before the North Carolina candidate filing deadline prospective Republican candidates had little time to make a decision about running.
Apparently, the short time frame did not reduce the number of open seat candidates. Twelve Republicans filed, including state Sen. Jim Davis (R-Franklin), Buncombe County Economic Development Commission member Mathew Burril, ex-North Carolina Republican Party Vice Chairman Wayne King, business owner Vance Patterson, and two previous congressional candidates from other districts. Five Democrats filed, none of whom have held any political office. The eventual Republican nominee will be a heavy favorite to hold the seat in the 2020 general election.
Candidate filing in the Tar Heel State closed on Friday and 38 individuals returned their documentation to run for President. Of those, 20 are minor party contenders.
Fifteen Democrats filed, including all of the perceived leaders, former Vice President Joe Biden, ex-New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, and Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA). For the Democrats, 110 first ballot delegates are at stake in the March 3rd North Carolina party primary.
Three Republicans filed including, of course, President Trump, along with former Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld and Illinois ex-US Rep. Joe Walsh.
Former House Freedom Caucus chairman Mark Meadows (R-Skyland/Asheville) announced that he will not seek re-election less than 48 hours before the North Carolina candidate filing deadline. Rumors abound that the Congressman, who is a close confidant of President Trump, may soon be taking a job in the Administration.
The newly configured 11th District created after another court-ordered re-map now fully contains the city of Asheville but is still a solidly Republican district. Since potential candidates have such a short time to file before the deadline expires today at noon, developments will be fast unfolding. This is clearly a developing story.
Hoke County Democratic Commissioner Harry Southerland yesterday submitted his candidate filing to challenge special election winner Dan Bishop (R-Charlotte) in the new 9th Congressional District. The most recent North Carolina redistricting map changes the 9th CD by approximately 20%, namely replacing Bladen County, which was the cause of the ballot harvesting controversy that kept the seat vacant for almost a year, and replacing it with Hoke County, from where Mr. Southerland hails, and part of Moore County.
The new district runs approximately ten points in President Trump’s favor. Rep. Bishop defeated Democrat Dan McCready 51-49% in the September special election after the latter man spent over $13 million dollars over two campaigns in an attempt to win the seat. Rep. Bishop is favored for re-election, but this seat, which stretches from Charlotte down the South Carolina border almost to Lumberton, will remain competitive under its new configuration.
Redistricting victim Mark Walker, a three-term Republican Congressman from the Greensboro area has seen his safe seat turn into a heavily Democratic domain under the new boundaries that will be in effect for the 2020 election. He had reportedly been deciding between challenging Sen. Thom Tillis in the Republican primary or possibly neighboring Congressman Ted Budd (R-Advance) in the neighboring, and now safe Republican, 13th District. Instead, Mr. Walker announced he will not be on the North Carolina ballot in 2020 but will likely return as a US Senate candidate in 2022 when incumbent Richard Burr (R) has pledged to retire.
North Carolina Rep. George Holding (R-Raleigh), who on Friday announced he would not seek re-election, may not be done running for Congress. Yesterday, Mr. Holding filed a new committee with the Federal Election Commission for the 2022 election cycle anticipating that the state will be awarded at least one new congressional district in 2020 reapportionment after the decennial census is complete.
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