Yesterday we covered the Gravis Marketing New Hampshire survey that tested Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) against potential Republican opponents. But, Gravis did not include former Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski in the field of candidates. Fabrizio, Lee & Associates conducted their own New Hampshire poll (8/11-12; 400 NH likely Republican primary voters) that did include Mr. Lewandowski. According to their results, the former Trump politico would actually lead the Republican primary with 30% support as compared to retired Army General Don Bolduc’s 11%, and former state House Speaker Bill O’Brien’s 10% preference.
The recently released Gravis Marketing New Hampshire survey (8/2-6; 505 NH adults) finds Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) holding a 51:37% job approval ratio, which favorably positions her against two potential Republican opponents. Opposite former state House Speaker Bill O’Brien, Sen. Shaheen would lead 52-39%. If retired Brigadier General Don Bolduc were her Republican general election opponent, the numbers break in similar fashion: 51-38%, in the Senator’s favor.
A new survey from the nation’s first primary state, New Hampshire, was just released from Gravis Marketing (8/2-6), though their likely Democratic primary voter sample is low with just 250 people interviewed. As other polls have found, former Vice President Joe Biden generally doesn’t fare particularly well in Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Elizabeth Warren’s (D-MA) political backyard.
Gravis finds Sen. Sanders, who received 60% of the vote here in his 2016 primary against Hillary Clinton, topping the field with 21% support followed by Mr. Biden who only posts 15%. Sen. Warren is next at 12% while South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) record 8 and 7% preference scores. Tracking above 2% in New Hampshire for the first time are Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI) with 5%, and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MA), businessman Andrew Yang, and billionaire Tom Steyer who all register 4% support.
Reports emanating from WMUR-TV in Manchester, NH suggest that former Trump for President campaign manager-turned political pundit Corey Lewandowski (R) is considering launching a challenge against Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D). While former House Speaker Bill O’Brien and retired Army General Dan Bolduc are already announced candidates, a Lewandowski candidacy would certainly upset the Republican primary apple cart. It is doubtful that any could mount a winning challenge against Sen. Shaheen, however, which certainly includes the budding Lewandowski candidacy.
Former state House Speaker Bill O’Brien (R), who had been indicating that he would challenge Sen. Jeanne Shaheen since early in the year, formally announced his candidacy yesterday. Mr. O’Brien served as Speaker during the 2011-12 legislative session. He is currently a software company president.
Once Gov. Chris Sununu (R) decided not to challenge the Senator, however, Republican chances of fielding a competitive campaign against Ms. Shaheen, who is running for her third term, greatly diminished. Also in the Republican primary is retired Army Brigadier General Don Bolduc.
CNN has teamed up with the University of New Hampshire, sponsors of the sometimes-unreliable Granite State Poll (7/8-15; 386 NH likely Democratic primary voters), to release yet another survey of the New Hampshire Democratic electorate. Though UNH often finds numbers outside the norm, here their survey results seem to agree with the preponderance of polling and helps isolate as an outlier the recent St. Anselm College study that found Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) only pulling 10% when he scored a 60% New Hampshire primary victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016.
According to CNN/UNH, former Vice President Joe Biden holds a 24-19-19-10-9% edge over Sens. Sanders and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) who are tied, with South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) following. No other candidate even reaches the 3% support plateau.
Last week, Change Research released polls from the early voting states including New Hampshire, which hosts the nation’s first primary vote. Their original poll (6/29-7/4; 420 NH likely Democratic primary voters) found Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) leading Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), Mayor Pete Buttigieg, ex-Vice President Joe Biden, and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA), 26-24-14-13-13%.
But, Change went back into the field over the July 6-9 period with a much larger polling sample (1,084 NH likely Democratic primary voters) and found the Granite State race flip-flopping to Sen. Warren. In this poll, it is Warren leading 22-20-19-15-13% over Sanders, Biden, Harris, and Buttigieg, respectively.
Yesterday, New Hampshire’s St. Anselm College released their new small-sample survey (7/10-12; 351 NH likely Democratic primary voters) and see a much different result. Anselm’s finds Mr. Biden topping the field at 21%, followed by Harris, Warren, Buttigieg and Sanders at 18-17-12-10%, respectively. It appears clear that we have a budding five-way race in this important early trend-setting state.
Executive Councilor Andru Volinksy (D), as hinted about earlier in the year, yesterday formed an exploratory committee to test his viability against Republican Gov. Chris Sununu. It is likely that Mr. Volinsky will face a primary campaign, however. Both state Senate Majority Leader Dan Feltes and 2018 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Molly Kelly are expected to enter the race. In 2018, Gov. Sununu defeated Ms. Kelly, 53-46%.
Retired Army General Don Bolduc (R) announced his US Senate candidacy yesterday, the first credible candidate to come forward since Gov. Chris Sununu (R) ruled himself out as a candidate early last month. Gen. Bolduc could become credible, but Sen. Shaheen remains a clear favorite for re-election.
Former state Rep. Mindi Messmer (D) was publicly considering challenging Gov. Chris Sununu (R) next year, but her actual political decision is different. Instead of running for Governor, Ms. Messmer announced yesterday that she would run for the state’s five-member Executive Council from her district. This unique panel has power to scrutinize and void the Governor’s actions on appointments, government contracts, and pardons.
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