Saying that President Trump’s re-election is more important than his running for elective office, former Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski indicated that he is less inclined to run for the Senate next year. Early polling suggests Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) would easily defeat Lewandowski, which is undoubtedly another factor in the former political operative becoming disinclined with launching a Senate challenge campaign.
New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner posted the presidential candidate filing schedule for the first-in-the-nation presidential primary, though that date has still not been officially determined. Mr. Gardner indicated that presidential candidates may file to run in the Granite State primary during the period between October 30th and November 15th, inclusive. The filing fee is $1,000, but the candidates must file in person.
It is presumed the New Hampshire primary will be scheduled for Tuesday, February 11th, eight days after the Iowa Caucus. Mr. Gardner, however, retains sole power to calendar the primary, and he is given such authority to ensure that no other state surpasses them. The official timetable is generally announced after the candidates have qualified for the ballot.
Manchester, NH-based American Research Group released the results of their new Granite State survey (9/20-24; 560 NH registered voters) and found Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) in strong position for re-election. ARG tested Sen. Shaheen only against former Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski (R), who is considering entering the campaign. The ballot test gave the incumbent a 56-34% advantage. This is a particularly strong spread in a state that has swung wildly back and forth between the two parties since the turn of the century.
A total of 219 House Democrats and one Independent have signed the petition pledge indicating they will vote for at least some version of an impeachment resolution. Doing so would impeach, or indict, the President, and send the charge to the Senate for a potential trial and motion to remove from office. Among the signers are several members who have competitive re-elections, are in Trump districts, or have primary competition. The lone Independent, Rep. Justin Amash (I-MI), will likely face attacks from both sides as he presumably seeks re-election as an Independent or minor party nominee.
The Democrats supporting impeachment who already face credible general election opposition are (listed alphabetically by name) Reps: Cindy Axne (IA), Gil Cisneros (CA), Sharice Davids (KS), Antonio Delgado (NY), Abby Finkenauer (IA), Lizzie Fletcher (TX), Andy Kim (NJ), Susie Lee (NV), Elaine Luria (VA), Tom Malinowski (NJ), Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (FL), Chris Pappas (NH), Katie Porter (CA), Harley Rouda (CA), Elissa Slotkin (MI), Abigail Spanberger (VA), and Lauren Underwood (IL).
Monmouth University again tested the first-in-the-nation primary state of New Hampshire (9/17-21; 401 NH likely Democratic primary voters) and once more sees a close battle brewing for first place between Sen. Elizabeth Warren (27%) and former Vice President Joe Biden (25%). The surprise finding is Sen. Bernie Sanders’ poor standing (12%), which is uncharacteristic of where he normally polls in the Granite State. On the other hand, Mayor Pete Buttigieg out-performs his normal positioning, breaking into double digits with 10%.
Emerson College surveyed the Republican statewide electorate (9/6-9; 379 NH likely Republican primary voters) and found former Trump Campaign manager Corey Lewandowski jumping out to a large lead over his two Republican potential opponents. Mr. Lewandowski has not committed to running, and it is unclear at this time whether he will enter the race. Irrespective of his status, Emerson finds Lewandowski leading retired Army General Don Bolduc, and former state House Speaker Bill O’Brien, 23-9-7%.
The New Hampshire primary is not until September 8th, so a long jockeying period exists until the candidates must file on June 12th. Regardless of the Republican primary status, at this point Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) appears secure for re-election.
Emerson College tested the New Hampshire Democratic electorate (9/6-9; 481 NH likely Democratic primary voters) and, like many other pollsters, found former Vice President Joe Biden and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren entangled in a tight race at the top. This survey finds Mr. Biden topping the field with 24%, and Sen. Warren close behind at 21%. Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders pulls 13% support from this respondent group.
But the surprise finding is South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg returning to double-digit figures after a relatively long absence. He pulls 11% support, just behind Sanders and ahead of California Sen. Kamala Harris, whose preference figure is 8 percent. Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard also turns in her best polling performance. She registers 6% in the Emerson poll, the first time she has exceeded the 5% threshold in any survey.
The YouGov international polling organization conducted simultaneous polls for the February voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. Though these states are small, having only 155 combined delegates, they tend to set the tone for Super Tuesday and the bulk of the voting. According to YouGov, former Vice President Joe Biden, and Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) are close in each of the four places. Mr. Biden leads in Iowa and South Carolina, Sen. Sanders places first in Nevada, and Sen. Warren tops the field in New Hampshire. None of the other candidates even reach double-digits in any of the four states.
Yesterday we covered the Gravis Marketing New Hampshire survey that tested Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) against potential Republican opponents. But, Gravis did not include former Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski in the field of candidates. Fabrizio, Lee & Associates conducted their own New Hampshire poll (8/11-12; 400 NH likely Republican primary voters) that did include Mr. Lewandowski. According to their results, the former Trump politico would actually lead the Republican primary with 30% support as compared to retired Army General Don Bolduc’s 11%, and former state House Speaker Bill O’Brien’s 10% preference.
The recently released Gravis Marketing New Hampshire survey (8/2-6; 505 NH adults) finds Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) holding a 51:37% job approval ratio, which favorably positions her against two potential Republican opponents. Opposite former state House Speaker Bill O’Brien, Sen. Shaheen would lead 52-39%. If retired Brigadier General Don Bolduc were her Republican general election opponent, the numbers break in similar fashion: 51-38%, in the Senator’s favor.
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