The Granite State’s St. Anselm University, which conducts political polling, just completed an online survey of 1,072 registered voters during the June 13-16 period. The results find former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Trump, 49-42%. This tracks in the same average range as was recorded for Hillary Clinton during the commensurate period in 2016. In the end, however, New Hampshire’s actual vote margin was one of the closest in the country, with Ms. Clinton carrying the state by only 2,736 votes.
We Ask America surveyed the New Hampshire electorate (6/13-15; 500 likely NH general election voters) and found two-term Gov. Chris Sununu (R) topping state Senate Majority Leader Dan Feltes (D-Concord) by a whopping 59-20% spread. Gov. Sununu also records an eye-popping 76:16% job approval ratio.
New Hampshire, like neighboring Vermont, awards its Governor only two-year terms. Therefore, even though Mr. Sununu is seeking his third term, he is only coming to the end of his fourth year in office.
The New Hampshire Senate campaign has been a quiet one so far, but that is beginning to change. Self-funding Republican candidate Corky Messner, a business owner and West Point graduate, just hit the airwaves with the first commercial of the campaign. The positive spot reviews his biography.
Mr. Messner has already invested more than $3 million of his own money into his campaign and has a large $3.01 million to $102,000 cash-on-hand advantage over his GOP opponent, retired Army Gen. Don Bolduc. The eventual Republican nominee challenges two-term Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) in November.
The New Hampshire primary has much time remaining since the nomination election isn’t until September 8th. Sen. Shaheen has raised $11.5 million for the race and reports over $7 million in the bank. She is the clear favorite to win re-election in November.
St. Anselm College, frequently the site of presidential debates before the New Hampshire primary, also polls the state’s electorate from time to time. Their latest conducted survey, from April 23-27 (820 NH registered voters), finds former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Trump, 50-42%.
Looking through the Real Clear Politics polling archives finds the earliest Trump-Hillary Clinton 2016 New Hampshire polls were taken in September of that election year. Consistent with the current data, the average margin spread among the eight polls from that year’s early polling period found Ms. Clinton leading Mr. Trump by virtually the same spread as St. Anselm’s sees today, 7.25%. The final New Hampshire tally found Ms. Clinton winning the state, but the margin closed to a razor-thin 46.8 - 46.5% spread.
If the Coronavirus is still a major threat before the state’s September 8th primary, Secretary of State Bill Gardner (D) and legislative leaders agreed that they will suspend the absentee ballot requirement that a voter have an excuse for not voting in person.
In the district that has defeated more incumbents than any seat in the nation since 2004, state Rep. William Fowler (R) announced that he will not file for Congress and instead endorsed former White House aide and NH Republican Party executive director Matt Mowers for the GOP nomination. The September 8th primary is shaping up as a battle between Mr. Mowers and former Dover City Councilman and ex-NH Republican Party Vice Chairman Matt Mayberry. The winner faces freshman Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester).
Former state House Speaker Bill O’Brien (R) has ended his US Senate bid and endorsed wealthy attorney Corky Messner (R) against incumbent Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D). Retired Army General Don Bolduc (R) remains in the race but is at a major financial disadvantage against Mr. Messner who has the ability to self-fund his campaign. The New Hampshire primary is not until September 8th, so this race still has much time to develop. Sen. Shaheen is a strong favorite in the November general election.
The University of New Hampshire released one of their Granite State polls, this time testing Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) as she prepares to seek a third term. According to the UNH data (2/19-25; 611 NH adults; 576 likely NH general election voters), Sen. Shaheen’s closest potential Republican opponent is retired General Don Bolduc, but even he is far behind. The UNH Senate ballot test shows Sen. Shaheen easily outpacing Gen. Bolduc, 49-30%.
Much time remains even before candidate filing, let alone the primary election. The New Hampshire candidate declaration period will end June 12th for their September 8th primary election.
The University of New Hampshire’s polling operation has often been characterized as erratic at best. Their new general election presidential poll is a case in point. The survey (2/19-25; 576 NH likely voters) finds largely unbelievable responses from a pool of Granite State voters.
Against Michael Bloomberg, President Trump would lead, 47-33%. But, if ex-Mayor Pete Buttigieg wins the Democratic nomination, Mr. Trump would trail in New Hampshire, 48-42%. The Trump-Bernie Sanders pairing would result in a 46-46% tie. Finally, President Trump would top former Vice President Joe Biden, 46-44%.
As expected, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) placed first in last night’s New Hampshire primary, but he barely topped former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar. Sanders scored a 26-24-20% win with Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and former Vice President Joe Biden both finishing with under 10% support and being shut out of delegate apportionment. Ironically, the two Midwestern candidates, Buttigieg and Klobuchar, performed better than New Englanders Sanders and Warren.
The results are quite a change from polling throughout the year and reflects the candidates’ current momentum. As in Iowa, Sen. Sanders placed first in the popular vote but did not capture a majority of delegates. He and Buttigieg tied with 9 bound votes apiece coming from New Hampshire with Klobuchar securing 6 votes. In the aggregate, Buttigieg has 23 delegates, Sanders 21, Warren 8, Klobuchar 7, and Biden 6. To win on the first ballot, 1,990 delegate votes are required.
The Rundown Blog
Before you vote, learn more about the candidates who will support a pro-jobs America.