The New York Times/Siena College polling series also looked at New Hampshire (9/8-11; 445 NH likely voters; live interview) where a tight race again appears to be unfolding that looks potentially similar to what we witnessed in 2016. In that election year, Hillary Clinton carried the state by just 2,738 votes (46.8 – 46.5%) from 744,296 ballots cast. According to the NYT/SC results, former Vice President Joe Biden maintains only a three-point, 45-42%, edge over President Trump.
On Tuesday night it was becoming clear even though the results were tight with thousands of votes to count that state Senate Majority Leader Dan Feltes (D-Concord) was Gov. Chris Sununu’s (R) probable November opponent. Though the margin was close with still enough outstanding votes to turn the tide, such proved not the case. In fact, Mr. Feltes gained support as the counting process drew to a conclusion. In the end, Sen. Feltes defeated Executive Councilor Andru Volinksky, with a 52-48% margin, but begins the general election as a decided underdog to Gov. Sununu.
The turnout pattern was interesting, however. More Republicans (144,640) than Democrats (136,999) voted in the gubernatorial race, but more Democrats (150,796) than Republicans (137,085) cast their ballots in the US Senate contest. It is strange to see such a large vote juxtaposition in terms of participation for a pair of races at the top of the ballot.
Republicans went to the polls yesterday to nominate congressional candidates against Democratic Reps. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) and Ann McLane Kuster (D-Hopkinton/Nashua) who were unopposed, or virtually unopposed, for re-nomination.
In the eastern 1st District, the seat that has defeated more incumbents than any in the country since 2002, former Trump White House aide Matt Mowers was an easy 60% winner within a field of four candidates. He is an underdog against Rep. Pappas, but the last time an incumbent was re-elected in this seat occurred in 2008. Therefore, a close race could again unfold.
In the western 2nd District, Rep. Kuster seeks a fifth term averaging just 52.5% of the general election vote in her previous four elections. In the Republican primary race, 2018 congressional nominee and former state Representative Steve Negron scored a seven-point, 47-40%, win against former state Representative and military veteran Lynne Blankenbeker. Rep. Kuster is expected to win again in November and exceed her average vote total.
Businessman Corky Messner, taking advantage of his large resource advantage, defeated retired Brigadier General Don Bolduc last night in a relatively close an unofficial 51-42% victory margin. This sends Mr. Messner into the general election to face two-term Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, who was a 94% winner in the Democratic primary. The Senator is favored for re-election, but New Hampshire voters have been restless throughout the 21st Century meaning that often the unexpected happens in Granite State politics.
Gov. Chris Sununu (R) seeks a third two-year term and apparently will face state Senate Majority Leader Dan Feltes (D-Concord) in the November election. Sen. Feltes leads 51-49% with ballots remaining to count from last night’s Democratic primary election opposite Executive Councilor Andru Volinksky, and it is probable that his margin will hold. So far, Gov. Sununu enjoys large general election polling leads but, in New Hampshire, the margins can quickly change.
The New Hampshire state primary, one of America’s last as compared to their first-in-the-nation status for the presidential primary, will be held Tuesday. A new University of New Hampshire survey (8/28-9/1; 1,949 Granite State panel members; 703 likely Republican primary voters; online) suggests that businessman Corky Messner (R), who has self-funded his campaign with a more than $3.8 million campaign loan, leads retired Army General Don Bolduc (R), 52-31%. If these numbers hold, Mr. Messner will advance into a shortened general election campaign as the underdog against Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) who seeks a third term.
St. Anselm’s University, as part of their statewide poll (8/16-17; 1,042 NH registered voters; 475 GOP primary voters; online), tested the US Senate Republican primary. The results find businessman Corky Messner edging retired Army General Don Bolduc, 31-29%, a much different result than the Tarrance Group found for the Messner campaign in July. That poll (7/13-14; 401 NH likely Republican primary voters) gave Mr. Messner a 39-27% lead. The Republican primary winner faces Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) in November. The New Hampshire nomination vote is set for September 8th.
While the New Hampshire electorate is routinely polled during nomination season, as this state’s electorate is the first to cast their primary ballots, rarely do we see a general election poll from the small New England state. Manchester-based St. Anselm’s College, however, just released their new Granite State data (8/15-17; 1,042 NH registered voters; online) and finds former Vice President Joe Biden holding an eight-point lead over President Trump, 51-43%, in a state that was only decided by 2,736 votes in 2016.
The eventual Republican campaign against incumbent Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) is slow starting because of the state’s late September 8th primary, but self-funding businessman Corky Messner is jumping out to a strong lead over retired Brigadier Gen. Don Bolduc.
According to a new Tarrance Group survey (7/12-14; 401 NH likely Republican primary voters), Mr. Messner hold a 39-27% lead over Gen. Bolduc who has been campaigning in the Republican primary for months but raised little in the way of election funds. The race against Sen. Shaheen is a long shot for the GOP, but Mr. Messner appears well positioned to advance into the general election.
The Granite State’s St. Anselm University, which conducts political polling, just completed an online survey of 1,072 registered voters during the June 13-16 period. The results find former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Trump, 49-42%. This tracks in the same average range as was recorded for Hillary Clinton during the commensurate period in 2016. In the end, however, New Hampshire’s actual vote margin was one of the closest in the country, with Ms. Clinton carrying the state by only 2,736 votes.
The Rundown Blog
Before you vote, learn more about the candidates who will support a pro-jobs America.