As expected, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) placed first in last night’s New Hampshire primary, but he barely topped former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar. Sanders scored a 26-24-20% win with Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and former Vice President Joe Biden both finishing with under 10% support and being shut out of delegate apportionment. Ironically, the two Midwestern candidates, Buttigieg and Klobuchar, performed better than New Englanders Sanders and Warren.
The results are quite a change from polling throughout the year and reflects the candidates’ current momentum. As in Iowa, Sen. Sanders placed first in the popular vote but did not capture a majority of delegates. He and Buttigieg tied with 9 bound votes apiece coming from New Hampshire with Klobuchar securing 6 votes. In the aggregate, Buttigieg has 23 delegates, Sanders 21, Warren 8, Klobuchar 7, and Biden 6. To win on the first ballot, 1,990 delegate votes are required.
Data from a new survey and an ongoing tracking study continues to see Sen. Bernie Sanders (D-VT) leading the pack of candidates for the imminent New Hampshire primary with former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) gaining significant momentum from their Iowa showings. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) remains basically stagnant, and former Vice President Joe Biden is falling off the pace.
CBS News/YouGov (2/5-8; 848 NH likely Democratic primary voters) projects the field breaking 29-25-17-12-10% for Sanders, Buttigieg, Warren, Biden, and Klobuchar. All other candidates are at 2% or under. The Suffolk University/Boston Globe tracking survey (2/7-8; 500 NH likely Democratic primary voters) projects an identical order and a similar result: Sanders 24; Buttigieg 22; Warren 13; Biden 10; Klobuchar 9. Suffolk/Boston Globe, however, sees New York City businessman Andrew Yang bumping up to 3% with Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI) and billionaire Tom Steyer posting 2% apiece.
The New Hampshire primary is tomorrow and, unlike Iowa, will not have an alignment round after the ballots are cast. We also expect a full counting of the results tomorrow night.
The latest Suffolk University and Monmouth University pre-primary poll have been released in New Hampshire and both find former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg making a move.
The Suffolk poll (2/5-6; 500 NH likely Democratic primary voters) sees a virtual tie between Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Mr. Buttigieg. The former leads the latter 24-23% with Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) in third at 13% and former Vice President Joe Biden dropping to fourth position with just 11% support. Monmouth (2/3-5; 503 NH Democratic likely primary voters) projects similar findings with Sanders holding a small lead over Buttigieg, 24-20%, Biden recording 17%, and Warren 13% support.
The results suggest we could see the type of finish that Iowa produced now that the Hawkeye State results are final at long last. There, five candidates, including Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, look to have won at least one national convention delegate vote.
The latest New Hampshire poll, from Suffolk University (2/2-3; 500 NH likely Democratic primary voters), still finds Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) leading the candidate group but the margin appears tightening. The totals find Sanders holding 24% support with former Vice President Joe Biden next at 18%, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) posting 13%, and former South Bend Mayor and potential Iowa victor Pete Buttigieg attracting 11% preference. It will be interesting to see how these numbers move after the Iowa results are finally recorded.
The New Hampshire finish could be similar to what is unfolding in Iowa in that four candidates could qualify for national convention delegate apportionment.
Emerson College released their latest New Hampshire poll (1/31-2/2; 500 NH likely Democratic primary voters) a little more than a week from the first-in-the-nation primary on February 11th. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) posts 29% support over former Vice President Joe Biden’s 14%, former Mayor Pete Buttigieg with 13%, and Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 12%. When compared to their last poll, Sen. Sanders has gained six percentage points, Biden remained constant, and Buttigieg and Warren dropped six and two, respectively.
The next Democratic presidential forum, scheduled for February 7th from Manchester, NH, will feature a returning candidate. The Democratic National Committee yesterday announced that businessman Andrew Yang has again earned a debate podium, expanding the number of participants to at least seven. Also on stage will be former Vice President Joe Biden, Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), and billionaire Tom Steyer.
To qualify for the New Hampshire debate, candidates must prove that at least 225,000 people have contributed to their campaigns and have reached 5% support in at least two Democratic National Committee sanctioned polls, or topped 7% in one of the four early states: Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, or South Carolina.
The Des Moines Register and the New Hampshire Union Leader newspapers announced their endorsements on Friday, but the candidates not being tabbed shouldn’t fret. The DMR endorsed Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), while the Union Leader is backing Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MA).
The Des Moines Register editorial board endorsed 11 candidates for the Iowa Caucuses since 1988, inclusive, and only three have won. The Union Leader backing Sen. Klobuchar is not particularly surprising since the paper is known for its conservative bent, and the Minnesota Senator is campaigning closer to the center than most of her Democratic counterparts. Because of its well-known ideological perspective, it’s unlikely that the paper’s editorial board will successfully influence the preponderance of Democratic primary voters. In fact, it may do Sen. Klobuchar more harm than good.
A new MassInc survey of the New Hampshire Democratic electorate in anticipation of the fast approaching February 11th Granite State primary was released yesterday. The poll (1/17-21; 426 NH Democratic likely primary voters), conducted for television station WMUR in Manchester, finds neighboring Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) leading the candidate field with 24%. Ex-South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg is second with 17%, former Vice President Joe Biden third at 14%, followed by Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) at 13 percent. The single digit finishers are Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MA), Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, and businessman Andrew Yang with 6-5-5%, respectively.
Emerson College took its turn at surveying the Granite State Democratic electorate in anticipation of the February 11th first-in-the-nation primary. The Emerson poll (1/13-16; 657 NH likely Democratic primary voters) projects Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) to have taken a 23-18-14-14-10% lead over former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, ex-Vice President Joe Biden, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), and Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar. Following are Andrew Yang (8%), Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI), and billionaire Tom Steyer (4%).
The results are an obvious bump for Sen. Sanders and a downturn for Mr. Biden. Additionally, this is the first time any New Hampshire poll has found Sen. Klobuchar climbing into double digits.
Patinkin Research Strategies conducted their New Hampshire poll in anticipation of the February 11th primary vote (1/5-7; 600 NH likely Democratic primary voters) and they and RKM Research and Communications (1/8-12; 474 NH likely Democratic primary voters) both see three candidates on track to qualify for delegate apportionment, but as to which three is open to contention.
Patinkin finds former Vice President Joe Biden pulling ahead with 21% of the vote, just slightly ahead of Sen. Bernie Sanders’ (I-VT) 19 percent. In third, but with a qualifying percentage of 17, is South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg. According to Patinkin, Sen. Warren is falling back to just 10% support. RKM, however, also finds Mr. Biden closely ahead of Sen. Sanders, 25-22%, with Sen. Warren returning to her more typical support level of 18 percent. They see Mayor Buttigieg as the candidate who is falling back, only recording 7% preference in this particular poll. We can expect to see further fluidity among the candidates as we approach primary election day.
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