CA-20: Candidates Qualify for Special Election: The California Secretary of State has attested that nine candidates have qualified for the March 19th special election to replace resigned former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Bakersfield). Controversy, however, still surrounds the favorite to win the electoral contest, Assemblyman Vince Fong (R-Bakersfield).
Since Mr. Fong had already filed for re-election before Rep. McCarthy resigned from the Congress, the Secretary of State ruled that he could not enter the congressional race because such action would violate a California election law that prohibits individuals from simultaneously running for multiple offices. Mr. Fong sued over the administrative ruling and won in Superior Court. Therefore, he has been slated as a congressional candidate while not being removed from the state Assembly ballot. The state is appealing the court ruling so even if Mr. Fong wins the special election as expected, he could be hampered by a future court decision. Also qualifying are Tulare County Sheriff Mike Bourdeaux (R), and seven other Republicans, Democrats, and No Party Preference candidates. If no one receives majority support on March 19th, the top two finishers, regardless of party affiliation will advance to a special general election on May 21st. The regular election cycle primary is scheduled for March 5th, featuring most of these candidates. The special election winner will serve the balance of Rep. McCarthy’s final term. NY-16: Serious Primary Challenge Unfolding: New York US Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-Yonkers), while receiving good news that the House Ethics Committee is not going to pursue further action against the Congressman for pulling a fire alarm in a House office building, is now facing a backlash over social media posts he made after the 9/11 attack. The posts referred to theories that the US government orchestrated the terrorist massacre, and a ring of globalist bankers were actively involved in the conspiracy. “Well over a decade ago, as I was debating diving into a doctoral degree, I explored a wide range of books, films, and articles across a wide swath of the political spectrum and processed my thoughts in a personal blog that few people ever read. I don’t believe anything that these cranks have said, and my life’s work has proven that.” While Mr. Bowman may survive these controversies in the short term, he faces a very difficult Democratic primary election in June. His principal opponent, Westchester County Executive George Latimer is reporting a dollar raised figure of $1.4 million since his declaration of candidacy in early December. Mr. Latimer is a veteran campaigner, having been elected four times to the state Assembly, once to the state Senate, and twice to his current position. Therefore, Rep. Bowman must be considered as a highly vulnerable incumbent as he heads into a serious renomination fight. NY-26: Rep. Higgins to Resign Friday: New York US Rep. Brian Higgins (D-Buffalo), who announced back in November that he would resign the House seat he has held for almost 20 years to take a position in the non-profit sector back in Buffalo, issued a statement yesterday saying that he will leave Congress on Friday. Once the seat is officially vacant, Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) will have ten days to call the special election for a period no less than 70 and no greater than 80 days from the scheduling announcement. The local Democratic county chairmen have already chosen state Senator Tim Kennedy (D-Buffalo) as the party’s special election nominee. Republicans are not likely to be competitive in the Buffalo anchored district which carries a partisan rating of D+18 according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization. At this point, the local Republican county chairs have not announced a special election nominee. SC-1: More Trouble for Rep. Mace: Earlier in the week, we reported that South Carolina US Rep. Nancy Mace’s (R-Charleston) former chief of staff, Dan Hanlon, had filed a campaign committee to challenge her in this year’s Republican primary. Yesterday, a former Nikki Haley gubernatorial cabinet official, Catherine Templeton, announced that she, too, will oppose the Congresswoman. Ms. Templeton, the former director of the South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control ran for Governor in 2018 but finished third in the Republican primary, losing to Gov. Henry McMaster. As Lt. Governor in 2017, Mr. McMaster ascended to the Governorship when Ms. Haley was appointed UN Ambassador. With the US Supreme Court still deciding whether the lawsuit challenging the 1st District as a racial gerrymander is valid, there is still a possibility that this seat could be redrawn before the candidates appear on the ballot. The South Carolina primary is June 11th, with a runoff scheduled for June 29th if no candidate receives majority support. Unless the district is ordered changed, the eventual Republican nominee becomes a prohibitive favorite in the general election. SC-1: Ex-Staffer Announces Against Rep. Mace: Dan Hanlon, a former chief of staff to two-term Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston), announced that he will challenge his former boss in the upcoming Republican primary. The move had been rumored for several weeks.
A further complicating factor is the lawsuit arguing that this district is a racial gerrymander has been heard at the US Supreme Court and the state is awaiting a decision. If the high court rules in the plaintiffs’ favor, a 1st District redraw could be ordered. With an April 1st candidate filing deadline for the associated June 11th primary, it may be difficult to reconfigure the district for the 2024 election cycle even if SCOTUS compels the change. Additionally, former state Representative and 2018 congressional nominee Katie Arrington (R) has also not ruled out running. Without changing, the seat should easily remain in Republican hands, but the GOP primary will become interesting. North Dakota: Rep. Armstrong Building Consensus: At-Large US Rep. Kelly Armstrong (R-Bismarck) continues to solidify himself as the heir apparent to retiring Gov. Doug Burgum (R). Former state Senator Tom Campbell (R), an announced gubernatorial candidate, has already pulled out of the race. Instead, he will run for Rep. Armstrong’s open US House seat. It already appears that Mr. Armstrong is becoming a consensus gubernatorial candidate, and the real race will be the Republican primary to succeed him in the US House.
Nebraska: GOP Refuses to Endorse Incumbents: Exacerbating the feud between the Cornhusker State Trump and establishment Republicans, the Nebraska Republican Party’s State Central Committee issued endorsements to all of the GOP primary congressional challengers.
In the Senate race, the party has endorsed retired Air Force officer John Glen Weaver over appointed Senator and former Governor Pete Ricketts. In US House District 2, the committee is officially supporting financial services executive and former congressional candidate Don Frei over Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion/Omaha), and in District 3, the party delegates issued an endorsement for businessman John Walz against nine-term Rep. Adrian Smith (R-Gering). In the contests where the Republican incumbents are running unopposed for the party nomination, Sen. Deb Fischer, and Rep. Mike Flood (R-Norfolk), the committee members issued no endorsement. It is also worth noting that none of the incumbents sought the party endorsement. West Virginia: Candidate Filing Closes: The West Virginia primary races are now set, as candidates will begin officially campaigning for the May 14th plurality primary. The races for Governor and US Senator will capture the most attention, while crowded primaries are underway for the open Attorney General, Secretary of State, and State Auditor’s offices. The only statewide incumbent seeking re-election is Agriculture Commissioner Kent Leonhardt (R). Despite all the other statewide races being hotly contested, an oddity occurred in the open State Treasurer’s race in that only one candidate filed. Former state Delegate Larry Pack (R) is unopposed both in the Republican primary and the general election. The Republican gubernatorial primary features four top candidates, Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, Secretary of State Mac Warner, former state Delegate Moore Capito, the son of US Senator Shelley Moore Capito (R), and businessman Chris Miller, son of US Rep. Carol Miller (R-Huntington). Huntington Mayor Steve Williams is unopposed for the Democratic nomination. The Senate Republican primary is considered a match between two-term Gov. Jim Justice and US Rep. Alex Mooney (R-Charles Town), though four other candidates filed. The Democratic side features Wheeling Mayor Glenn Elliott and frequent candidate, former CEO and convicted felon Don Blankenship, along with former congressional aide Zack Shrewsbury. Sen. Joe Manchin (D) is retiring. In the House races, 1st District Rep. Carol Miller faces only minor opposition in the Republican primary and general elections. In the open 2nd District, state Treasurer Riley Moore leads a Republican field of five candidates. His most serious opponent appears to be retired Air Force General Chris Walker. For the Democrats, retired Navy Commander Steve Wendelin is unopposed for the party nomination. South Carolina: First Post-NH GOP Poll Released: The first post-New Hampshire primary survey is out, and we see former President Donald Trump performing well in former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley’s home state. The Tyson Group tested the Palmetto State Republican electorate immediately after the New Hampshire vote (1/24-26; 543 SC likely Republican primary voters; online) and found Mr. Trump holding a large 58-31% advantage over Ms. Haley.
The poll sample, including Independents who say they will vote in the Republican primary, hold both presidential candidates in high regard. Mr. Trump’s approval index is 68:27% favorable to unfavorable, while Ms. Haley’s is slightly worse at 56:33%. In comparison, Sen. Tim Scott’s (R) rating is 57:20%. The South Carolina Republican primary is scheduled for February 24th while the Democrats vote on February 3rd, so the state’s residents can expect a great deal of political action coming their way in the next few weeks. California: Second Place Flipping: As the March 5th Super Tuesday vote approaches, polling in the California Senate jungle primary consistently shows Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) nailing down first place, but second place as undecided. The latest released survey, from Emerson College (1/11-14; 1,087 CA registered voters; multiple sampling techniques) sees Rep. Schiff holding a 25-18-13-8% lead over Republican baseball great Steve Garvey (R), while US Reps. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) and Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) trail with their respective support percentages.
A similar poll from The LA Times (UC Berkeley Institute of Government Studies; 1/4-8; 8,199 CA registered voters; 4,470 likely 3/5 primary voters; online) released ten days earlier than the Emerson data found Rep. Schiff leading Rep. Porter, Mr. Garvey, and Rep. Lee in a 21-17-13-9% spread. Comparing the current Emerson poll with their November California survey, Mr. Garvey gained eight percentage points, while Rep. Porter remained stagnant. Under the California system, all primary contenders compete on the same ballot with the top two, regardless of percentage attained and party affiliation, advancing to the November 5th general election. MD-2: Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger (D) to Retire: Maryland US Rep. Charles A. “Dutch” Ruppersberger (D-Cockeysville) announced on Friday that he will not seek a 12th term in the House, thus completing what will be 30 consecutive years in elective office counting his time in Congress and as Baltimore County Executive. He leaves a northern Maryland congressional district that could be on the cusp of competitiveness, but Baltimore County Executive Johnny Olszewski (D) appears primed as Rep. Ruppersberger’s heir apparent.
The 2nd District covers the area just north of Baltimore city and extends all the way to the Pennsylvania border. It includes about 2/3 of Baltimore County, 90% of Carroll County, and about 30,000 residents in Baltimore City. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+11. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates a 52.5D – 41.4R partisan lean, and the Daily Kos Elections site ranks MD-2 as the 62nd most vulnerable seat in the House Democratic Conference. NJ-7: Dem Field Winnows to Two: Democrats want to make a strong run against freshman New Jersey US Rep. Tom Kean, Jr. (R-Westfield), but one of their candidates just decided to end his congressional bid. Summit Township Councilman Greg Vartan announced on Friday that he will suspend his campaign leaving former State Department official Jason Blazakis and ex-Working Families Party state director Sue Altman as the two competing Democrats. Former Congressman Tom Malinowski (D), the man Rep. Kean unseated in 2022, just announced he would not enter the Senate race. Speculation has surrounded him about seeking a congressional rematch, but there is no tangible evidence that the former Representative is planning to make a 2024 comeback. CO-4: Brewing Chaos Likely Helps Rep. Boebert: Colorado’s open 4th District Republican primary featuring 11 announced candidates is beginning to deteriorate, which could favor Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt). Ms. Boebert is moving into this open district to seek re-election instead of facing the most well-funded congressional candidate in America from her original District 3.
Two of the more prominent candidates are embroiled in controversy. State Rep. Mike Lynch (R-Ft. Lupton), as now comes to the forefront, was arrested in 2022 on suspicion of driving while intoxicated in addition to possessing a firearm while intoxicated. Mr. Lynch pled guilty to the charges and is serving a probationary sentence. His congressional candidacy has obviously brought the arrest to the forefront, and the publicity surrounding it has caused a movement within the state House Republican caucus to remove Mr. Lynch as Minority Leader. Not wanting to face a vote, Mr. Lynch quickly resigned from his leadership position. Pro-life State Rep. Richard Holtorf (R-Akron), another District 4 candidate, who in urging a No vote on an abortion related piece of legislation, stated that he had helped finance a girlfriend’s abortion and further said having the procedure helped her “live her best life.” He, too, is at the center of a media storm and his inconsistency will clearly diminish his prospects as a congressional candidate. Though other credible candidates, such as former state legislator Ted Harvey, are in the crowded GOP primary, Rep. Boebert is now in better position thanks to two of her main opponents being forced to navigate rough political waters. LA-6: Ex-Congressman Announces for New Seat: Originally being elected to Congress in 1992 and serving only two terms after a mid-decade court-ordered redistricting map changed the political landscape thus forcing him to retire, state Sen. Cleo Fields (D-Baton Rouge) announced that he will enter the race to fill the new court-ordered revamped 6th Congressional District that stretches from Baton Rouge to Shreveport. Therefore, Sen. Fields will attempt a long-awaited return to the US House, a body from which he departed 28 years ago. We can expect a spirited open seat campaign among Democrats who will be competing to win the new district later in this year’s regular election. The seat is designed to elect an African American Democrat. Current 6th District incumbent Rep. Garret Graves (R-Baton Rouge) will look to run elsewhere, probably in the new 5th District where he will be forced to challenge fellow GOP Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start). Missouri: Sec of State Jay Ashcroft Leading Open MO Gov Race: The Remington Research Group, the usual pollster for the Missouri Scout political blog, went into the field to test the open Republican gubernatorial primary to be decided in early August. The survey (1/17-18; 806 MO likely Republican primary voters; interactive voice response system) sees Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft (R), son of former Missouri Senator and US Attorney General John Ashcroft, leading the field for the GOP nomination.
According to the Remington results, Mr. Ashcroft posts a 34-20-4% advantage over Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe, and state Sen. Bill Eigel (R-Weldon Spring), respectively. The eventual Republican nominee will be a clear favorite to win the general election. Gov. Mike Parson (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. Virginia: Rep. Spanberger Opens With Big Lead for ‘25: Though the next open Virginia Governor’s race isn’t until November of 2025, candidates are already building war chests and developing campaign strategies to succeed Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) who is ineligible to seek a second term. As a result of the early activity, Christopher Newport University included a Democratic primary question on their latest statewide survey (1/11-17; 1,000 VA registered voters; live interview). The results project US Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Glen Allen) opening with a big lead over Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney. On the ballot test, Rep. Spanberger posts a 52-8% advantage and already leads Mr. Stoney in fundraising $3.6 million to $750,000. While the Congresswoman is off to a fast start, many months remain before this primary and general election are decided. Pennsylvania: Biden Lengthens Polling Lead: Susquehanna Polling & Research released the results of their latest Pennsylvania statewide survey (1/15-21; 745 PA registered voters; live interview & online) and finds a surprising result. The Susquehanna data sees President Biden assuming an eight point lead over former President Donald Trump, 47-39%, which is well beyond other pollsters’ findings during the past month.
During that time span, the Bullfinch Group, Redfield and Wilton Strategies, and Quinnipiac University were all testing the Keystone State electorate and determined much closer ballot test results. Those firms saw results ranging from Even support between the two candidates (Bullfinch), to Trump leading by one point (Redfield), and Biden up two (Q-Poll). We can expect to see regular PA polling from now to Election Day producing a myriad of results that will, at one time or another, favor each candidate. |
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