Pennsylvania: Senate Race Tightening: In the same Susquehanna Polling & Research study that produced an eight point lead for President, the data firm returned the closest US Senate poll we’ve seen from Pennsylvania in more than a month. According to the Susquehanna results, Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D) edges Republican David McCormick by only a four-point margin, 46-42%. This is a surprising result from the same sample that produced an eight point lead for President Biden.
Other pollsters during the past 30-day period see the race trending significantly more one-sided than Susquehanna. The Bullfinch Group in mid-December found Sen. Casey holding a 15 point lead, while Quinnipiac University, which produced a similar ballot test result for the Biden campaign, projects Sen. Casey leading Mr. McCormick, 53-43%. The Susquehanna poll is the first poll within the current time frame to find the Pennsylvania Senate race falling within the polling margin of error. New Hampshire: Ex-Sen. Ayotte Leads in GOP Primary Poll: A new University of Massachusetts at Lowell survey (1/6-16; 600 NH likely Republican primary voters; online) finds former US Senator Kelly Ayotte establishing a big lead over former state Senate President and 2022 US Senate candidate Chuck Morse. According to the survey results, Ms. Ayotte is staked to a 54-22% advantage.
The New Hampshire regular primary cycle is a long one, with the election not scheduled until September 10th. Democrats also feature two major candidates, Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington and former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig. Gov. Chris Sununu (R) is retiring after what will be four complete terms. NJ-7: Early Polling Data Favors Rep. Kean: While many political prognosticators rate New Jersey’s 7th District race as a toss-up campaign for freshman incumbent Tom Kean, Jr. (R-Westfield), a recent Public Policy Polling survey (1/16-7; 608 NJ-7 voters; multiple sampling techniques) casts the GOP Congressman to a lead well beyond the polling margin of error. According to the PPP results, Rep. Kean would hold a 41-33% lead over former US State Department official Jason Blazakis (D).
In other 7th District news, the man who Rep. Kean unseated, two-term Rep. Tom Malinowski (D) this week ended his flirtation with entering the US Senate race and endorsed his former colleague, US Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) in his Democratic primary challenge to embattled Sen. Bob Menendez. While Mr. Malinowski has not firmly rejected running for his former House seat, there is no tangible evidence suggesting he is preparing a House run. In addition to Mr. Blazakis, progressive activist Sue Altman is a declared candidate. VA-7: 2022 GOP Nominee Endorses Another: Prince William County Supervisor Vesli Vega, the 2022 Republican congressional nominee who held Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Glen Allen) to a 52-48% re-election victory in what many believed was an under-performance for the GOP in a more favorable post-redistricting 7th CD, issued a statement earlier this week. Many believed that she would again enter the crowded candidate field but instead she endorsed defense contractor and retired Navy SEAL Cameron Hamilton (R). Though we see a field of eight announced Republicans for what is now an open seat, the Vega endorsement will help Mr. Hamilton unite GOP voters behind his campaign. Six Democrats have announced for their party’s nomination including state Del. Briana Sewell (D-Woodbridge), Prince William County Supervisor Margaret Franklin, ex-state Delegate Elizabeth Guzman, and retired Army Colonel and National Security Council official Eugene Vindman. New Hampshire: Trump, Biden Win: Former President Donald Trump successfully won the New Hampshire Republican primary last night and did so by about twelve percentage points, but his performance is apparently not enough to convince former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley to leave the race.
In her concession speech, Ms. Haley pledged to continue moving forward and several times referenced going to her home state of South Carolina as a place that could reverse the political tide. Polling, however, suggests that she is not as strong there as she was in New Hampshire. For the Democrats, President Biden, despite not being on the primary ballot, won the primary with write-in ballots that tallied just under 67% of the vote. US Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN), who said he had no fundamental disagreement with the President over issues but believes Democrats should have a choice particularly with an 81-year old in office, secured 20% of the vote. Author Marianne Williamson attracted the remaining votes, just under 4 percent. The New Hampshire primary yielded a record Republican turnout. The final participation count could reach 320,000. The previous record of 284,120 was set in 2016. The final Democratic turnout number will only be in the 100,000 range. North Dakota: One In, One Out: After Gov. Doug Burgum (R) on Monday announced that he will not seek a third term, other North Dakota politicos began to make public their own political plans. At-Large US Rep. Kelly Armstrong (R-Bismarck) quickly declared that he will run for Governor. Mr. Armstrong leaving the House means that 46 seats will be open for the next election.
Conversely, Attorney General Drew Wrigley (R), also viewed as one of the top potential contenders to succeed Gov. Burgum, announced that he will not run for Governor, instead opting to seek re-election to his current position. Former state Senator and ex-congressional candidate Tom Campbell (R) will also run for Governor. The Republican statewide nominating convention is scheduled for April 6th. The ND primary is set for June 11th. NE-1: Gov. Nominee to Challenge Rep. Flood: State Senator Carol Blood (D-Bellevue), who was the 2022 Democratic gubernatorial nominee and lost to now-Gov. Jim Pillen (R), 59-36%, announced that she will now challenge Rep. Mike Flood (R-Norfolk) in the state’s 1st District that surrounds the Omaha metropolitan area on three sides. Mr. Flood was elected in a 2022 special election after Rep. Jeff Fortenberry (R) resigned. He won a full term in November with 58% of the vote. Ms. Blood’s candidacy gives the Democrats a credible challenger in what is considered a safe Republican seat.
Rep. Flood will be favored for re-election. The 1st District carries an R+17 rating from the FiveThirtyEight data organization. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates a partisan lean of 56.7R – 40.4D. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks NE-1 as the 72nd most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference. Louisiana: Redistricting Map Signed Into Law: Meeting the court-ordered requirement to draw a new majority minority seat in Louisiana, Gov. Jeff Landry (R) yesterday signed into law the legislature’s map. The new lines will cost the Republicans one seat, as an African American Democrat will be heavily favored to win a newly drawn 6th District that stretches from Baton Rouge all the way to Shreveport, cutting through the middle of House Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-Benton) 4th CD.
Current 6th District Rep. Garret Graves (R-Baton Rouge) says he will run for the House, which likely means challenging Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start) in the state’s newly drawn, and safely Republican, 5th CD. Rep. Graves also says he is considering filing a lawsuit against the new map. New Hampshire: Primary Election Today: At one point it appeared that former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley was well positioned against Donald Trump in the New Hampshire primary, but a plethora of late polls find the former President expanding his advantage well into double digits.
Also on the ballot tonight is the Democratic presidential primary, though sans President Joe Biden. He is bypassing this event because the state refused to accept the Democratic National Committee recommended primary schedule change that would have deprived New Hampshire of its cherished first-in-the-nation primary status. Ten polls have been released since Saturday from as many different pollsters, and except for the American Research Group, all show Mr. Trump holding leads between ten and a whopping 27 percentage points. The ARG survey finds Mr. Trump holding only a 33-29% edge. The Democratic race is much more difficult to forecast because of the write-in campaign underway for the President. The three polls, from the American Research Group, the University of New Hampshire for CNN, and Emerson College for WHDH-TV in Boston, see the Phillips support line falling between 10 and 18 percentage points. With data showing the respective party leaders expanding their leads, it will be an even bigger upset tonight if either President Biden or Mr. Trump fail to meet their enhanced expectations. Delaware: First Dem Primary Poll Suggests Close Race: With Gov. John Carney (D) being ineligible to run for a third term, Lt. Governor and gubernatorial candidate Bethany Hall-Long (D) released the results of her internal Public Policy Polling Democratic primary survey (1/10-11; 643 DE likely voters; live interview & text). The study finds the Lt. Governor posting an early 30-23% lead over New Castle County Executive Matt Meyer. National Wildlife Federation CEO Collin O’Mara, also an announced candidate, was not included on the Democratic primary ballot test.
The Delaware primary is one of the latest in the cycle, scheduled for September 10th, so much time remains for this race to develop. The eventual Democratic nominee will be in commanding position to win the open race in November. North Dakota: Gov. Doug Burgum to Retire: Former presidential candidate Doug Burgum (R) announced yesterday that he will not seek a third term as North Dakota’s Governor despite high approval ratings. With his endorsement of former President Trump, and the ex-chief executive indicating that Gov. Burgum would be primed for a position in a new Trump Administration should the 2024 election go the Republicans’ way, Mr. Burgum’s time in politics may not be coming to an end. The decision to leave the Governorship when his current term ends will open a highly competitive race for the Republican nomination through the state party convention and potentially a June 11th open primary. The eventual Republican nominee becomes a prohibitive favorite to succeed Gov. Burgum. Alaska: Ranked Choice Voting Opponents File Petition Signatures: The proponents of a ballot proposition to repeal the state’s Top Four and Ranked Choice Voting systems have presented 55% more than the required number of signatures to reach the ballot, but they may be short on another qualifying requirement. While the group will likely have the proper aggregate number of valid signatures, there are questions as to whether they have met the requirement that certain numbers of the signatures must come from all the required districts. Therefore, it remains to be seen if this repeal measure will qualify for the 2024 election ballot.
The Ranked Choice system could have a wide ranging effect on the coming presidential race, just as it has in the last two Alaska congressional campaigns. |
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