Ron DeSantis: Suspends Campaign: Two days before the New Hampshire primary, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, once thought to be former President Trump’s principal Republican challenger, announced that he is suspending his national campaign and endorsed the former President.
In his announcement, Mr. DeSantis left the national campaign attacking both President Biden and fellow GOP challenger Nikki Haley. Mr. DeSantis said, “I look forward to working together with him [Mr. Trump] to beat Joe Biden, who is the worst and most corrupt president in the history of our country.” Referring to Ms. Haley, Gov. DeSantis was quoted as saying, “I signed a pledge to support the nominee, and I will honor that pledge. He [Mr. Trump] has my endorsement because we can’t go back to the old Republican guard of yesteryear, a repackaged form of warmed over corporatism that Nikki Haley represents.” The GOP presidential fight now winnows to two major contenders, former President Trump, and ex-UN Ambassador Haley. Tomorrow’s New Hampshire primary may be close, Trump will easily win in Nevada on February 6th, and then the campaign heads to Haley’s home state of South Carolina on February 24th where polling finds Mr. Trump holding a 2:1 lead. If such margin holds, the Republican nomination will effectively be clinched before Super Tuesday on March 5th. Louisiana: Congressional Map Passes Legislature: The Louisiana state legislature agreed upon legislation to create a new congressional map as part of their special session to satisfy a court order. The bill now goes to Gov. Jeff Landry (R) for his signature. The agreed upon plan creates a new 6th District anchored in Baton Rouge, which then stretches through Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-Benton), virtually cutting it in half, to reach Shreveport. This satisfies the court order to create a second majority minority seat in the state (54% black). According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, President Biden would have carried the new 6th by a 59-39% majority.
The big loser on this map is five-term Rep. Garret Graves (R-Baton Rouge). He is now paired with Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start) in a new 5th District seat that stretches along the Mississippi border on the south and east and going all the way to the Arkansas border on the north. The new 5th contains at least 2/3 of Rep. Letlow’s current constituency. The partisan division will now award another seat to the Democrats, making the future Louisiana delegation 5R-2D. Under the plan, Speaker Johnson, Majority Leader Steve Scalise, and Reps. Troy Carter (D-New Orleans), and Clay Higgins (R-Lafayette) all get safe seats from a partisan perspective. NY-3: New Poll Shows Tight Special Election Race: A newly released Emerson College survey (1/13-15; 975 NY-3 registered voters; 819 likely voters; multiple sampling techniques) sees a close special election race developing between former US Rep. Tom Suozzi (D) and Nassau County Legislator Mazi Melesa Pilip (R). The ballot test shows a 45-43% split in favor of Mr. Suozzi. The best news for the former Democratic Congressman is that the most likely voters within the sample break for him on a 51-37% split. While the majority white vote (58% of the district population) favors Pilip 49-40%, the largest minority group, Asians (24% of the district population), overwhelmingly favor Suozzi (60-25%). Hispanics (13% of the population) are moving toward Pilip in a 44-33% clip. Possibly, the most troubling news for Suozzi are President Biden’s and Gov. Kathy Hochul’s (D) poor job approval ratings. Only one-third of voters, 33%, approve of President Biden’s performance in office (59% disapprove). Gov. Hochul’s numbers are even worse. Her approval index is 25:66% favorable to unfavorable. The special election is scheduled for February 13th. Louisiana: Changing to Party Primary System: As part of the special Louisiana state legislative session, the House and Senate are sending a bill to Gov. Jeff Landry (R), one that he initiated, to change Louisiana’s primary voting system from a top-two jungle system to a partisan primary. The changes would take effect for the 2026 election and would institute a modified system where registered members of the political party must vote in their own primary while non-affiliated voters would have their choice of where to cast their ballot.
The change would mean, like in most other states, that only the political party nominees and qualified Independents would advance to the general election. The legislation would affect all federal races along with the state Supreme Court, the state school board, and the Public Service Commission. All other offices would continue with the current system of sending the top two finishers regardless of political party affiliation to the general election. New Mexico: Republicans Making Move to Challenge Sen. Heinrich: In order to expand what is a favorable Republican US Senate map, a prominent member of the GOP announced her candidacy. Nella Domenici, a former hedge fund CEO and daughter of the late six-term Sen. Pete Domenici (R), is the latest Republican to declare for the seat. Last week, former Bernalillo County Sheriff Manny Gonzales switched parties to enter the GOP Senate primary. The eventual winner of the June 4th Republican primary will challenge two-term incumbent Sen. Martin Heinrich (D).
The Senator is favored for re-election, but Republicans improving among Hispanics could make this a competitive contest. New Mexico’s Hispanics register 50.2% of the state population universe according to the latest US Census report. The last time Republicans won a NM statewide race was in 2014 when then-Gov. Susanna Martinez was re-elected. An August Public Policy Polling survey showed President Biden topping former President Trump 49-41%, suggesting the state could become competitive in the national election. Texas: Tight New Poll: Emerson College just released the results of their latest Texas statewide survey (1/13-15; 1,315 TX registered voters; interactive voice response system & online) and finds Sen. Ted Cruz (R) heading into a potentially competitive general election. The ballot test found the Senator leading US Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) by a 42-40% margin, and holding only a one-point, 41-40% split over state Sen. Roland Gutierrez (D-San Antonio). Simultaneously, former President Trump leads President Biden 49-41%. The poll is not particularly surprising in that Sen. Cruz’s personal favorability numbers have never been particularly good. The presidential election turnout model, Trump beating Biden in the state, the Biden energy policies being detrimental to Texas, and the southern border controversy, however, all play politically in Sen. Cruz’s favor. Therefore, it is likely that we will see many close Texas Senate polls between now and the November election. The state’s voter history and favorable issue matrix, however, will ultimately favor Sen. Cruz and allow him to win re-election with a relatively comfortable margin. NV-3: GOP Ex-State Treasurer Announces for House: Earlier this month, Republicans lost their top congressional recruit in state Assemblywoman Heidi Kasama (R-Las Vegas), who instead of running for the House will seek re-election to what could become a tight Nevada Assembly. Ms. Kasama was clearly the top contender for the GOP nomination in a seat that is the most winnable for a Republican (FiveThirtyEight data organization rating: D+2) of the three Las Vegas competitive districts.
Now, former State Treasurer Dan Schwartz (R) is coming to the forefront to announce his congressional candidacy. While winning a statewide position in 2014, Mr. Schwartz has not fared well since, losing landslide races for Governor, Lt. Governor, and a previous run for the 3rd Congressional District. It is likely the Republicans will have to recruit a stronger candidate against Rep. Susie Lee (D-Las Vegas) if they are to move this race into the top tier. Louisiana: House and Senate Pass Different Maps: Both the Louisiana House and Senate have now passed a new congressional plan in special session to comply with the court order to draw another majority minority seat. The map versions, however, are significantly different so a conference committee will have to be scheduled to form one version before the members in each house vote again. The new 6th District seat will be anchored in the Baton Rouge area and will likely force Rep. Garret Graves (R-Baton Rouge) into a paired situation with fellow GOP Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start) in a new 5th District that will contain the predominant share of the latter incumbent’s current territory. Wisconsin: Congressional District Lines Challenged: A citizens group that famed Democratic election lawyer Marc Elias represents filed suit before the Wisconsin state Supreme Court arguing that the panel’s rejection of the state Senate and Assembly maps compels them to reconsider striking down the state’s congressional map. According to the Daily Kos Elections site’s legal analysts, the legislature’s maps were returned for a re-draw because the court rejected the “least change” (from the previous map) practice that the legislature relied upon to draw the 2021 maps. The Elias group’s lawsuit maintains that the congressional map was also drawn under the “least change” practice, and therefore should be redrawn. So far, however, the court has not taken action against the congressional map and time is running out. The Secretary of State has informed the court that unless new maps are enacted into law by March 15th, they will not be able to convert the electoral system in time for the 2024 election. New Hampshire: Suffolk’s Different View: Yesterday, we reported upon an American Research Group survey that posted former President Donald Trump and ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley into a 40-40% tie for the coming New Hampshire primary on January 23rd. Suffolk University’s new data release, however, has a much different take.
Their poll (1/15-16; 500 NH likely Republican primary voters; live interview) sees Mr. Trump with a substantial 16 point lead over Ms. Haley, which is obviously quite a difference. Instead of a tie, Suffolk posts the division between the two candidates at 50-34%. The Suffolk results are closer to the three other polls released in January, making the ARG numbers, so far, the outlier. Mississippi: Sen. Wicker’s Opponents: Candidate filing has closed in Mississippi and an official candidate list has been released. While Sen. Roger Wicker (R) is a prohibitive favorite over the lone Democrat who filed, 2023 Secretary of State nominee Ty Pinkins who received 40.5% of the vote against incumbent Michael Watson (R) in the November election, the Senator does have Republican primary opposition.
State Rep. Dan Eubanks (R-Walls) and retired Marine Corps Colonel T. Ghannon Burton are both qualified candidates. While it is doubtful that either can raise sufficient funds to run a major campaign against Sen. Wicker, who has been in the Senate since the last day of 2007 after being elected six times to the US House, all primary campaigns are worth watching. Mississippi has a runoff law, so Eubanks and Burton will attempt to keep the Senator from receiving 50% of the vote in the March 12th primary election. Sen. Wicker remains a heavy favorite for renomination and re-election. MS-4: Rep. Ezell’s Primary Challenge: In 2022, then-Jackson County Sheriff Mike Ezell was one of six Republicans who challenged six-term Congressman Steven Palazzo in the GOP primary. The group forced Palazzo into a runoff election, and Sheriff Ezell defeated him 54-46%. He then went onto to record a landslide general election victory with 73% of the vote. Now, Rep. Ezell faces his own primary challenge.
With Mississippi candidate filing now closed, Rep. Ezell has drawn two Republican opponents, local businessman Carl Boyanton who ran in 2022 but received only 6% of the vote in the GOP primary election, and Army veteran Michael McGill. Rep. Ezell will be favored to win outright in the March 12th primary election, but this is another race to follow. A runoff will be held on April 2nd should no candidate reach the 50% plateau. Rep. Ezell is favored for renomination and re-election in this southeastern Mississippi congressional district. SC-3: Rep. Jeff Duncan (R) to Retire: Seven-term Palmetto State Republican Congressman Jeff Duncan (R-Laurens) is the latest House member to announce that he will not seek re-election. Mr. Duncan was hit with media reports back in September that he admits to having several extra-marital affairs all the while campaigning as a traditional values politician. It is probable the negative publicity influenced his decision to leave Congress. Rep. Duncan’s western South Carolina 3rd District is safely Republican and has been so since the late Democratic US Rep. Butler Derrick left office at the beginning of 1995. Mr. Duncan now becomes the 45th House member not seeking re-election. Of the group, 23 seats are currently Democratic held while 21 come from the Republican column. One seat, the new 2nd District in Alabama, is created through the new court ordered redistricting map. It is likely we will see a similar situation develop in Louisiana when that new court-ordered map is drawn before the end of the month. Arizona: No Labels Party Wins Federal Ruling: Rather surprisingly, a federal judge has ruled in Arizona that the No Labels Party can bar candidates from running on their party line for races other than President even though the entity is an official Arizona political party. Secretary of State Adrian Fontes (D) has pledged to appeal the ruling on behalf of the state. It seems difficult to imagine a similar ruling being rendered if the Republican or Democratic Parties were to make such a move.
Mr. Fontes, who said the ruling is “dead wrong,” argues that the “…current decision will disenfranchise almost 19,000 registered Arizona voters, and if it stands, it could potentially derail the entire candidate nomination process,” according to an Associated Press story. If state candidates run under the No Labels party line, then the national party would have to disclose its donors under Arizona election law, something the national entity so far has been able to avoid. It remains to be seen if this ruling is allowed to stand. Candidates: And Then There Were Three: After former President Donald Trump’s victory in the Iowa Caucuses on Monday, two more presidential candidates, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy and former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson, suspended their campaigns.
Prominent candidates who previously dropped their bids are former Vice President Mike Pence, ex-New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum. The moves essentially leave the presidential field to Mr. Trump, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, and ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley. Of the exiting candidates, Messrs. Ramaswamy and Burgum have endorsed Mr. Trump. No other former candidate to date has issued an endorsement. New Hampshire: ARG Sees Trump & Haley Tied: A third installment of the American Research Group survey series (1/12-15; 600 NH likely Republican primary voters; 406 Republican voters; 194 Independent voters; live interview) sees former President Donald Trump and ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley now tied as the candidates turn the corner toward the New Hampshire primary on January 23rd. Both candidates were drawing 40% support. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and now-ex presidential contender Vivek Ramaswamy fell well back to 4% apiece. Clearly New Hampshire is the only pre-Super Tuesday state where Trump fails to dominate. New Hampshire: A Biden Warning Sign: The American Research Group also ran a companion poll for the Democratic presidential primary as it was surveying the Republican side. This study (1/12-15; 600 NH likely Democratic primary voters; 452 Democratic voters; 148 Independent voters; live interview) finds US Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN) posting his best standing against President Biden of any poll. According to these results, Mr. Biden, clearly identified as a write-in candidate on the questionnaire, would lead Rep. Phillips 58-28%, with author Marianne Williamson drawing 3%. The New Hampshire primary is January 23rd, but Mr. Biden chose to bypass the state because New Hampshire did not agree to the proposed Democratic National Committee primary calendar changes. Therefore, voters wanting to support the President must write in his name. |
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