Primaries and runoffs are still on the political horizon, but July is a light electoral month. Tomorrow, the postponed New Jersey statewide primary will be held, and a new extensive mail voting procedure will be tested as all registered voters were sent a live ballot. The Delaware stand-alone presidential primary will also be conducted. The regular statewide Delaware primary is the latest in the nation, scheduled for September 15th. Stand-alone presidential primaries will also be held this month in Louisiana (7/11) and Puerto Rico (7/12).
July 14th hosts runoff elections in Alabama and Texas. The important US Senate Republican contest between retired Auburn University head football coach Tommy Tuberville and ex-US Attorney General and former Senator Jeff Sessions will be finally be decided that day. Runoffs in the open 1st and 2nd Congressional Districts will also send contestants to the respective general elections in what should be safe Republican seats. The original Alabama runoff election date was March 31st.
Texas holds a US Senate Democratic runoff and 15 House secondary elections postponed from May 26th. From the latter group, nine Republican contests and six Democratic electoral events will finally determine general election participants. The Texas and Alabama primaries were held all the way back on March 3rd.
Maine holds its postponed primary also on July 14th. State House Speaker Sara Gideon is a heavy favorite to win the Democratic US Senate nomination to face incumbent Susan Collins (R). Three credible Republicans are vying for the opportunity of challenging freshman Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) in what is likely to be a competitive 2nd District general election campaign.
Election officials in Louisiana announced on Friday that the April 4th presidential primary has been postponed to a future date in response to the COVID-19 virus. No subsequent date has yet been decided. The North Dakota Democratic Party has also announced that next weekend’s state party convention has also been postponed to an uncertain future date. At this point, the Arizona, Florida, Illinois, and Ohio primaries, scheduled for Tuesday, are still moving forward as planned.
Three-term US Rep. Ralph Abraham (R-Alto/Monroe), who ran unsuccessfully for Governor in 2019 and originally self-term limited to six years in the House, announced yesterday that he will keep his promise and retire at the end of the current Congress. This yields an open seat in north/central Louisiana, and we can expect to see multiple candidates come forward well before the July 17th candidate filing deadline.
Louisiana employs the jungle primary system but holds their election concurrently with the regular general. If no one receives majority support on November 3rd, which will be likely, the top two finishers advance into a December 5th run-off contest. Mr. Abraham’s departure means there are 42 open seats headed into the next election, with 31 coming from the Republican column as compared to only 11 from the majority Democrat category.
Defying what is usually a poor trend in run-offs for incumbent Southern politicians forced into a secondary election, Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) recorded a 51.3% victory Saturday night to win a second term over GOP developer Eddie Rispone. Though polling correctly showed a tight race, the latest surveys suggested that the trend might be favoring a Rispone upset. The Governor’s superior organization was able to capitalize on his strength in New Orleans and Baton Rouge, while keeping Rispone’s margin down in some of the key Republican strongholds.
Yesterday, we reported on the new Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy survey (11/5-7; 625 LA likely voters) that found Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) holding a mere 48-46% edge over Baton Rouge developer Eddie Rispone (R). The latest Cygnal Poll (11/7-9; 800 LA likely voters), released yesterday, derives a similar margin. This survey finds the Governor leading Mr. Rispone, 50-48%. Though Mr. Edwards returns to the 50% plateau, it is clear that this contest, to be decided this Saturday, is going down to the wire.
Still another survey reports more data in the same realm and confirms the other results. Edgewater Research (11/11; 661 LA likely voters) sees the race as a dead heat, with both candidates registering 49% support.
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy just completed a new survey of the upcoming Louisiana Governor’s run-off election that will be decided this Saturday, November 16th. According to the M-D data (11/5-7; 625 LA likely voters), a toss-up situation still exists within four days before the final vote. The ballot test shows Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) holding a mere 48-46% edge over Baton Rouge developer Eddie Rispone (R). This poll is significant because it places the Governor under 50% for only the second time in the run-off. In the jungle primary, Gov. Edwards managed to earn just 46.6% of the vote, thus necessitating this secondary election.
The Louisiana Governor’s run-off election featuring incumbent John Bel Edwards (D) and Baton Rouge developer Eddie Rispone (R) will be decided shortly, on November 16th. Two polls were just released, one from Baton Rouge-based JMC Analytics (10/24-26; 600 LA likely voters) and the other from Edgewater Research (10/28; 722 LA likely voters). Both find the exact same result: Edwards leading Rispone, 50-47%. This tells us that the candidates will enter the stretch drive in toss-up mode.
The We Ask America polling firm released the first Bayou State gubernatorial general election political survey featuring the Gov. John Bel Edwards – Eddie Rispone race, which will be decided Nov. 16th. Those who surmised before the election that if the Governor were forced into a run-off, we would see a very competitive campaign appear to be correct, and the WAA poll (10/14-16; 600 LA likely 2019 general election voters) confirms such speculation. According to their results, the two candidates are already tied at 47% apiece.
Gov. Edwards defeated then-Senator David Vitter (R) to win the Governorship in 2015 but failed to even reach 47% in the 2019 jungle primary. Under Louisiana election law, all candidates are placed on the same ballot and if any one receives majority support, that individual is elected outright. Should no one reach 50%, as was the case on Oct. 12th, the top two finishers, in this case Gov. Edwards (D) and developer Rispone (R), advance to a run-off election.
While late race polling suggested that Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) had a chance to win re-election outright, he was instead sent into a November 16th run-off election with Republican businessman Eddie Rispone. In the jungle primary contest, Mr. Edwards finished with 46.6% of the vote, ahead of Mr. Rispone’s 27.4% and US Rep. Ralph Abraham’s (R-Alto/Monroe) 23.6%.
Turnout exceeded 1.35 million voters, a 20.6% increase over the 2015 jungle primary. We can now expect a highly competitive run-off campaign. No Governor forced into a run-off has previously won re-election in Louisiana history.
Though polling is in agreement that Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) will finish first in Saturday’s jungle primary and could potentially win outright, the early voting returns suggest that the Republicans are demonstrating under-stated strength. Looking at the early voting returns, which are already much higher than in any previous Bayou State election, Republicans may be running almost even with the Governor. At this point, 381,669 ballots have been returned according to the Secretary of State and Democrats have only a 43.6 – 41.4% edge in returned votes. In 2015, the grand total early vote number was 270,144, and the Democratic edge in that election was a strong 52.3 – 34.4%. These numbers give the GOP hope that their candidates can force Gov. Edwards into a November 16th run-off election by keeping him under 50% support.
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