The We Ask America polling firm released the first Bayou State gubernatorial general election political survey featuring the Gov. John Bel Edwards – Eddie Rispone race, which will be decided Nov. 16th. Those who surmised before the election that if the Governor were forced into a run-off, we would see a very competitive campaign appear to be correct, and the WAA poll (10/14-16; 600 LA likely 2019 general election voters) confirms such speculation. According to their results, the two candidates are already tied at 47% apiece.
Gov. Edwards defeated then-Senator David Vitter (R) to win the Governorship in 2015 but failed to even reach 47% in the 2019 jungle primary. Under Louisiana election law, all candidates are placed on the same ballot and if any one receives majority support, that individual is elected outright. Should no one reach 50%, as was the case on Oct. 12th, the top two finishers, in this case Gov. Edwards (D) and developer Rispone (R), advance to a run-off election.
While late race polling suggested that Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) had a chance to win re-election outright, he was instead sent into a November 16th run-off election with Republican businessman Eddie Rispone. In the jungle primary contest, Mr. Edwards finished with 46.6% of the vote, ahead of Mr. Rispone’s 27.4% and US Rep. Ralph Abraham’s (R-Alto/Monroe) 23.6%.
Turnout exceeded 1.35 million voters, a 20.6% increase over the 2015 jungle primary. We can now expect a highly competitive run-off campaign. No Governor forced into a run-off has previously won re-election in Louisiana history.
Though polling is in agreement that Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) will finish first in Saturday’s jungle primary and could potentially win outright, the early voting returns suggest that the Republicans are demonstrating under-stated strength. Looking at the early voting returns, which are already much higher than in any previous Bayou State election, Republicans may be running almost even with the Governor. At this point, 381,669 ballots have been returned according to the Secretary of State and Democrats have only a 43.6 – 41.4% edge in returned votes. In 2015, the grand total early vote number was 270,144, and the Democratic edge in that election was a strong 52.3 – 34.4%. These numbers give the GOP hope that their candidates can force Gov. Edwards into a November 16th run-off election by keeping him under 50% support.
Election Day is Saturday, and Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) continues to knock on the 50% door. If he reaches majority support, the Governor will be elected outright for a second term. According to yesterday’s released Market Research Insights poll (10/1-7; 600 LA likely gubernatorial voters), Gov. Edwards would record 51% preference.
Rep. Ralph Abraham (R-Alto/Monroe) and real estate developer Eddie Rispone are in a dogfight for second position, but that may be irrelevant if the Governor wins outright. Should Edwards fall short, the top two finishers would advance to a November 16th run-off election. After holding second place for most of the campaign cycle, Rep. Abraham had recently fallen behind Mr. Rispone. According to this MRI poll, however, the two are tied at 19%, apiece.
The October 12th jungle primary election day is this Saturday, and the candidates are making a final dash to the finish line. Two new polls find the race hasn’t changed much. The data suggests that Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) is hovering around the 50% mark, but no poll shows him winning majority support. Doing so would elect him outright to a second term. If no one reaches 50% a run-off election will be held November 16th.
Both JMC Enterprises and Mason-Dixon Research & Strategy are returning new numbers from the polling field. JMC (10/2-5; 600 LA likely primary voters) sees Gov. Edwards at 47% support followed by developer Eddie Rispone with 22% and US Rep. Ralph Abraham (R-Alto/Monroe) obtaining 19% preference. Mason-Dixon sees similar results. Their poll (10/1-4; 625 LA likely primary voters) projects Gov. Edwards with 45%, Rispone recording an identical 22% as found in the JMC data, and Rep. Abraham dropping to 17% support.
M-D tested potential run-offs featuring Gov. Edwards with both Rispone and Abraham. Against the businessman, Gov. Edwards would lead 51-42%. If Rep. Abraham were his general run-off opponent, Mr. Edwards’ advantage grows to 51-38%. The big question for Saturday is whether the Governor will exceed the 50% plateau. If not, the ensuing run-off election has the potential of becoming quite interesting.
Confirming other recent data, the We Ask America research organization polled the Louisiana electorate for the upcoming October 12th gubernatorial jungle primary. The survey (9/24-26; 600 LA likely gubernatorial primary voters) again finds Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) hovering around the 50% mark but not quite reaching the majority plateau. He scores 47% according to WAA.
In second now is developer Eddie Rispone who has pulled ahead of Rep. Ralph Abraham (R-Alto/Monroe) for second position as this and other polls report. Second place is important because that individual will advance to a secondary run-off election on November 16th if Gov. Edwards fails to reach majority support in the October vote.
Baton Rouge-based JMC Enterprises went back into the field to test the Louisiana electorate in anticipation of the state’s October 12th gubernatorial election. The survey (9/19-21; 550 LA likely voters) finds Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) hitting the 48% mark against his two major opponents, US Rep. Ralph Abraham (R-Alto/Monroe) and developer Eddie Rispone (R). The two Republicans record 22 and 20%, but this time it’s Rispone who jumps into second position. Previously, Rep. Abraham had consistently been second. Mr. Rispone is spending millions of his own dollars to advertise.
JMC completed a poll last week (9/14-17; 600 LA likely voters) that projected Gov. Edwards with only 41%. If a candidate reaches majority support in the October election, the individual is elected outright. If no one secures 50%, the top two will face each other in a run-off election on November 16th.
Recent polling has shown Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) nearing the 50% mark for the October 12th gubernatorial election. Obtaining majority support in a jungle primary format means a candidate is elected outright. But Baton Rouge-based JMC Analytics, a frequent Louisiana pollster, sees the Governor in a tighter race than other research firms. According to the JMC data (9/14-17; 600 LA likely voters), Mr. Edwards secures only 41% support as compared to Rep. Ralph Abraham’s (R-Alto/Monroe) 24%, and developer Eddie Rispone who posts 16 percent.
Though Edwards still has a healthy lead and will undoubtedly finish first in the primary election, the big question remains as to whether he can reach the majority mark. If he does not, and this JMC survey would project he falls short, then the Governor could face trouble in a one-on-one match with a Republican, most likely Rep. Abraham, in the November 16th run-off election.
A newly released internal Remington Research campaign poll (conducted for the Ralph Abraham for Governor campaign; 9/10-11; 1,144 LA likely voters via interactive response system) confirms previous polling that gives Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) a large lead in the October 12th jungle primary. But, like the others, it doesn’t quite yet show him avoiding a run-off. Should the race advance to a November 16th run-off election, the tables could turn in the Republicans’ favor.
According Remington, Gov. Edwards commands 45% support as compared to US Rep. Ralph Abraham’s (R-Alto/Monroe) 27%, and developer Eddie Rispone pulling 19%. In a run-off election, however, the race tightens. Gov. Edwards would lead Rep. Abraham only 48-44%, and Mr. Rispone 49-44%.
The Governor is dominating Abraham in the money chase, however. Going into the campaign’s final weeks Mr. Edwards is showing $5.7 million cash-on-hand as compared to Rep. Abraham’s $1.4 million. Mr. Rispone, a self-funder who has already contributed $11.5 million to his campaign reports $6.3 million remaining in his campaign account.
Baton Rouge-based pollster Bernie Pinsonat of the Southern Media and Opinion Research firm just released his new survey of the Louisiana electorate (9/3-6; 500 “chronic” voters) and the results suggest that Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) is on the cusp of winning outright in the October 12th jungle primary.
According to the Pinsonat data, Gov. Edwards commands 47% support as compared to US Rep. Ralph Abraham’s (R-Alto/Monroe) 24%, with developer Eddie Rispone pulling 16%. The key for the challengers, particularly Abraham who will be the one to advance if there is a run-off, is to force a November 16th secondary election. If no one receives majority support in the jungle primary, the top two finishers advance to a run-off. It is clear that Edwards will finish first. The question is will he go over the top or be forced into what could become, for him, a dangerous secondary election.
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