Louisiana Rep. Cedric Richmond’s (D-New Orleans) announcement that he would resign from Congress to accept a position in the Biden Administration before January 20th has already led to a pair of state legislators declaring their candidacy for the eventual special election. State Sens. Karen Carter Peterson (D-New Orleans) and Troy Carter (D-New Orleans) appear to the be the first of many to enter the new campaign. It is expected that more than a dozen individuals will become candidates.
Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) will schedule the special election once Rep. Richmond officially resigns. It is likely the special election calendar will coincide with the municipal elections already scheduled for March 20th with a runoff date of April 24.
Yesterday, Louisiana Rep. Cedric Richmond (D-New Orleans) announced that he would resign his seat in the House to accept a position in the Biden Administration. The Congressman is slated to become a senior advisor to the President and the Director of the Office of Public Engagement. This means we will see a special election held in the LA-2 district. Since the seat is heavily Democratic, we can expect a double-Democratic runoff election after a jungle primary is scheduled and held.
The Republicans have now gained a net of 9 seats in the House with five races remaining uncalled. In the five outstanding contests, Republicans lead in four.
One of them, in Iowa, has been certified as a 47-vote win for state Sen. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Ottumwa), but Democratic nominee Rita Hart has requested a recount in all 24 of the 2nd District’s counties, which began yesterday. Republicans, including Rep. Mike Garcia (R-CA), hold tenuous leads in the two remaining California races. Former Rep. Claudia Tenney (R-NY) looks poised to re-claim New York’s 22nd District, and Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-NJ) continues to lead as final counting winds down in his New Jersey re-election race.
Another race will be decided in a Louisiana December 5th runoff election. There, former congressional aide Luke Letlow and state Rep. Lance Harris (R-Alexandria) will advance to a secondary vote. Since both are Republicans, the GOP is assured of holding the open seat regardless of the outcome.
Since seven House races were called yesterday, we now see 16 congressional contests called, eight of which are in New York and three in California.
Below is the list of the outstanding races and their current status:
AK-AL: Rep. Don Young (R)
Status: 59.2%; Reporting 69%
R+ 43,761 votes
CA-21: David Valadao (R)
Status: 51.4% ; Reporting 71%
R+ 4,041 votes
CA-25: Rep. Mike Garcia (R)
Status: 50.0%; Reporting 86%
R+ 159 votes
CA-39: Young Kim (R)
Status: 50.6%; Reporting 97%
R+ 4,168 votes
IA-2: Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)
Status: 50.0%; Reporting 100%
R+ 40 votes
IL-14: Rep. Lauren Underwood (D)
Status: 50.4%; Reporting 100%
D+ 3,524 votes
LA-5: Luke Letlow (R)
Status: 33.1%; Reporting 100%
Runoff - Dec 5
NY-1: Rep. Lee Zeldin (R)
Status: 61.3%; Reporting 100%
R+ 65,120 votes
NY-2: Andrew Garbarino (R)
Status: 57.8%; Reporting 100%
R+ 44,898 votes
NY-3: George Santos (R)
Status: 50.5%; Reporting 100%
R+ 4,171 votes
NY-11: Nicole Malliotakis (R)
Status: 57.9%; Reporting 95%
R+ 37,158 votes
NY-18: Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D)
Status: 51.0%; Reporting 100%
D+ 7,896 votes
NY-19: Rep. Antonio Delgado (D)
Status: 50.4%; Reporting 100%
D+ 7,893 votes
NY-22: Claudia Tenney (R)
Status: 54.5%; Reporting 100%
R+ 28,394 votes
NY-24: Rep. John Katko (R)
Status: 58.5%; Reporting 100%
R+ 55,102 votes
UT-4: Burgess Owens (R)
Status: 47.6%; Reporting 95%
R+ 1,780 votes
13 of 16 R Leads
Louisiana has the latest developing federal elections because their jungle primary isn’t until Election Day, November 3rd. If no candidate receives majority support, the top two will advance to a runoff election on December 5th. Until now, little has developed against Sen. Bill Cassidy (R) who is seeking a second term this year.
With candidate filing closing this Friday, Sen. Cassidy now has his first significant opponent. Announcing his candidacy is Democratic Shreveport Mayor Adrian Perkins, who is capable of waging a credible statewide campaign. Sen. Cassidy is the prohibitive favorite, but we now have a campaign to watch.
Primaries and runoffs are still on the political horizon, but July is a light electoral month. Tomorrow, the postponed New Jersey statewide primary will be held, and a new extensive mail voting procedure will be tested as all registered voters were sent a live ballot. The Delaware stand-alone presidential primary will also be conducted. The regular statewide Delaware primary is the latest in the nation, scheduled for September 15th. Stand-alone presidential primaries will also be held this month in Louisiana (7/11) and Puerto Rico (7/12).
July 14th hosts runoff elections in Alabama and Texas. The important US Senate Republican contest between retired Auburn University head football coach Tommy Tuberville and ex-US Attorney General and former Senator Jeff Sessions will be finally be decided that day. Runoffs in the open 1st and 2nd Congressional Districts will also send contestants to the respective general elections in what should be safe Republican seats. The original Alabama runoff election date was March 31st.
Texas holds a US Senate Democratic runoff and 15 House secondary elections postponed from May 26th. From the latter group, nine Republican contests and six Democratic electoral events will finally determine general election participants. The Texas and Alabama primaries were held all the way back on March 3rd.
Maine holds its postponed primary also on July 14th. State House Speaker Sara Gideon is a heavy favorite to win the Democratic US Senate nomination to face incumbent Susan Collins (R). Three credible Republicans are vying for the opportunity of challenging freshman Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) in what is likely to be a competitive 2nd District general election campaign.
Election officials in Louisiana announced on Friday that the April 4th presidential primary has been postponed to a future date in response to the COVID-19 virus. No subsequent date has yet been decided. The North Dakota Democratic Party has also announced that next weekend’s state party convention has also been postponed to an uncertain future date. At this point, the Arizona, Florida, Illinois, and Ohio primaries, scheduled for Tuesday, are still moving forward as planned.
Three-term US Rep. Ralph Abraham (R-Alto/Monroe), who ran unsuccessfully for Governor in 2019 and originally self-term limited to six years in the House, announced yesterday that he will keep his promise and retire at the end of the current Congress. This yields an open seat in north/central Louisiana, and we can expect to see multiple candidates come forward well before the July 17th candidate filing deadline.
Louisiana employs the jungle primary system but holds their election concurrently with the regular general. If no one receives majority support on November 3rd, which will be likely, the top two finishers advance into a December 5th run-off contest. Mr. Abraham’s departure means there are 42 open seats headed into the next election, with 31 coming from the Republican column as compared to only 11 from the majority Democrat category.
Defying what is usually a poor trend in run-offs for incumbent Southern politicians forced into a secondary election, Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) recorded a 51.3% victory Saturday night to win a second term over GOP developer Eddie Rispone. Though polling correctly showed a tight race, the latest surveys suggested that the trend might be favoring a Rispone upset. The Governor’s superior organization was able to capitalize on his strength in New Orleans and Baton Rouge, while keeping Rispone’s margin down in some of the key Republican strongholds.
Yesterday, we reported on the new Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy survey (11/5-7; 625 LA likely voters) that found Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) holding a mere 48-46% edge over Baton Rouge developer Eddie Rispone (R). The latest Cygnal Poll (11/7-9; 800 LA likely voters), released yesterday, derives a similar margin. This survey finds the Governor leading Mr. Rispone, 50-48%. Though Mr. Edwards returns to the 50% plateau, it is clear that this contest, to be decided this Saturday, is going down to the wire.
Still another survey reports more data in the same realm and confirms the other results. Edgewater Research (11/11; 661 LA likely voters) sees the race as a dead heat, with both candidates registering 49% support.
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