The candidate filing deadline has now passed in Louisiana, and no unexpected entry came forward. Therefore, it is now clear that Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) officially faces US Rep. Ralph Abraham (R-Alto/Monroe) and developer Eddie Rispone along with six minor candidates.
Now, the group advances to the October 12th jungle primary where all of the candidates will appear on the same ballot. If one contender receives majority support in that election, the individual is elected. If no one reaches 50%, the top two will advance to a November 16th run-off vote.
Current polls suggest Gov. Edwards leads the primary balloting but would fall under 50%. A run-off election, early data portends, favors the Governor but the numbers are close enough to indicate the final vote could end in close fashion.
As reported in the Baton Rouge Advocate news publication, Market Research Insight conducted a poll of Louisiana voters (released 6/20; 600 LA registered voters) and finds incumbent John Bel Edwards (D) regaining a substantial lead in the upcoming 2019 Governor’s race. Mr. Edwards, according to MRI, leads US Rep. Ralph Abraham (R-Alto/Monroe) and developer Eddie Rispone (R), 46-17-5%, a far better margin than detected in recent surveys. In isolated run-off pairings, Gov. Edwards would out pace Rep. Abraham 45-28%, and Mr. Rispone, 47-23%.
The MRI poll could have a Democratic skew, however, because President Trump’s numbers were abnormally low in a state of proven strength for him. The Advocate column also points out that while MRI correctly projected the 2015 Louisiana Governor’s race, the firm’s data was wholly inaccurate for the 2017 New Orleans Mayor’s contest.
The Remington Research Group released the findings of their Louisiana Governor’s poll taken immediately after Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) signed the controversial heart beat abortion bill. The poll (6/1-2; 1,471 LA registered voters through interactive voice response system) found that the abortion issue has yet to take hold because the numbers did not precipitously change from the organization’s previous poll conducted in March. In the current survey, Gov. Edwards would lead the 2019 jungle primary, 43-34-8%, over Rep. Ralph Abraham (R-Alto/Monroe) and developer Eddie Rispone (R), respectively.
When the two Republicans are isolated against Edwards, the Governor’s numbers drop slightly against Abraham but improve when opposing Rispone. Paired against Rep. Abraham, the two would tie at 45% apiece. Opposite Mr. Rispone, Gov. Edwards would lead 49-38%. In March, Gov. Edwards led 47-45% over Abraham and 48-42% against Rispone.
JMC Analytics, a regular pollster of the Louisiana electorate, just reported the results of their new survey (4/25-27 & 29; 650 LA registered voters) for the upcoming Governor’s election. According to the JMC data, the October 12th jungle primary finds Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) leading US Rep. Ralph Abraham (R-Alto/ Monroe) and developer Eddie Rispone (R), 38-23-7%.
In tested general election run-offs, Gov. Edwards would top Rep. Abraham by a slight 40-36% count, while his advantage against Rispone would balloon to 41-28%.
These rather tepid numbers for the incumbent suggest that this competitive Governor’s campaign will become even tighter as we move toward the statewide election day later this year.
Remington Research, polling for gubernatorial candidate Ralph Abraham (R), released their latest data for the impending 2019 Governor’s race featuring incumbent John Bel Edwards (D) seeking re-election. The new poll (3/13-14; 1464 LA likely voters; 732 self-identified Democratic voters) finds Gov. Edwards holding a 44-33-10% jungle primary lead over Rep. Abraham (R-Alto/ Monroe) and developer Eddie Rispone (R), respectively.
If no candidate receives a majority vote in the October 12th primary, the top two finishers would face each other in the general election on November 16th. In the head-to-head pairings, Gov. Edwards would top Rep. Abraham, 47-45%, and Mr. Rispone, 48-42%. The results obviously indicate that a very close race could develop later this year.
In an interesting aside, the pollsters asked Democratic voters if they would definitely support Gov. Edwards, consider voting for another Democrat, or are not planning to support any Democratic gubernatorial candidate. The results: 59% reported definitely backing Mr. Edwards, with 19% saying they are not planning to vote Democratic. An additional 17% said they would consider voting for a Democrat other than Gov. Edwards.
Though House Minority Whip Steve Scalise (R-Slidell) has several times indicated he is not planning to run for Governor this year, political speculation continues that he may well reverse course and enter the jungle primary against incumbent Gov. John Bel Edwards (D). Late last week the situation clarified as Mr. Scalise again reiterated that he is “not running for Governor.”
Many Louisiana Republican leaders reportedly feel the party needs a stronger candidate than the two announced entries, Rep. Ralph Abraham (R-Alto/Monroe) and developer Eddie Rispone. GOP strategists are unhappy, for example, that Rep. Abernathy reported raising less than $400,000 before the end of last year.
A key time will be the next financial disclosure deadline on April 15th. Expect the GOP to search to recruit a new candidate should Abernathy and Rispone not improve. Louisiana state candidates must file on or before August 8th. The jungle primary will be held October 12th. If no contender receives an absolute majority that day, a run-off between the top two finishers will be conducted on November 16th.
A new LJR Custom Strategies survey conducted for the Education Reform Now Advocacy group (1/14-27; 600 LA likely voters), a supporter of Gov. John Bel Edwards (D), finds the first-term state chief executive way ahead of his two current prospective Republican opponents.
According to the LJR results, Gov. Edwards leads Rep. Ralph Abraham (R-Alto/ Monroe) and land developer Eddie Rispone (R), 45-17-4%, if the state’s jungle primary were held in the present time. But, this respondent group consisted of 53% self-identified Democrats, 34% Republican, and 13% unaffiliated. Typically, the Louisiana electorate has a much different complexion.
A December poll from Remington Research conducted for Rep. Abraham found that he and Gov. Edwards would tie at 44% apiece if the two advanced into the general election, providing an example of early polling disparity.
The latest Louisiana Governor’s campaign news features former US Rep. John Fleming (R) indicating that he is also considering entering the 2019 Governor’s race in order to challenge Democratic incumbent John Bel Edwards. Dr. Fleming served four terms in the House, leaving in 2016 to run unsuccessfully for the Senate. He finished fifth in a field of 24 jungle primary candidates, failing to advance into the general election. Then-state Treasurer John Kennedy (R) eventually claimed the seat in the run-off election. Currently, Dr. Fleming is an official in the US Department of Health and Human Services.
Gov. Edwards is seeking re-election. His current challengers are US Rep. Ralph Abraham (R-Alto/Monroe) and land developer Eddie Rispone (R). Both Sen. Kennedy and Attorney General Jeff Landry (R) declined to run.
The Louisiana campaign finance disclosure deadline is fast approaching, and the key gubernatorial candidates are already releasing their dollar totals. Gov. John Bel Edwards’ (D) campaign team reports that his operation will report $3.8 million raised for the period with a cash-on-hand figure of $8.4 million.
His numbers were countered by Republican developer Eddie Rispone, who reports $5.5 million in the bank, though $5 million of his funds are self-contributed.
Originally, it appeared that Attorney General and former US Congressman Jeff Landry (R) was gearing up to run for Governor, but opted to announce for re-election when it appeared that US Sen. John Kennedy (R) would challenge Gov. John Bel Edwards (D). When the Senator decided to remain where he is, rumors began surfacing that Mr. Landry was re-thinking his political plans.
Yesterday, the Attorney General ended the speculation by announcing that he is continuing his campaign for re-election and will by-pass a run for Governor in 2019.
The gubernatorial field includes, at this point, only two announced contenders: US Rep. Ralph Abraham (R-Alto/Monroe) and real estate developer Eddie Rispone, but others still have plenty of time to enter the race. Former Congressman and US Senate candidate Charles Boustany (R), state Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta, and state Sen. Sharon Hewitt (R-Slidell) are all potential gubernatorial candidates.
The Louisiana candidate filing deadline is not until August 8th for the October 12th statewide jungle primary and November 16th run-off election.
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