A full week after the Kentucky primary, which featured a record turnout of more than 1 million voters in the combined Democratic and Republican primaries, retired Marine Corps helicopter pilot Amy McGrath has been projected with winner over state Rep. Charles Booker’s (D-Louisville). With more votes still awaiting to be counted from several counties, Ms. McGrath did well in rural areas throughout the state but lost the biggest population centers of Louisville, Lexington, and Bowling Green.
Ms. McGrath has a 45.4 – 42.6% lead over Rep. Booker, a spread of 15,149 votes of the 544,062 ballots so far recorded and tabulated. Ms. McGrath, with only a plurality victory and a much weaker showing than originally predicted, now faces Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) in the general election.
Returns are still just trickling in from last week’s June 23rd primary, with a bulk of the vote totals scheduled to be released today. At this point, retired Marine Corps helicopter pilot Amy McGrath has usurped state Rep. Charles Booker’s (D-Louisville) small lead, but still less than 100,000 voters statewide have been posted. With what appears to be a record turnout, the result from hundreds of thousands of mailed votes remain uncertain.
In addition to potentially definitive numbers coming today from Kentucky and possibly New York, the Colorado, Oklahoma, and Utah primaries begin.
Only 10,377 votes have been tabulated in Jefferson County, Kentucky, but they are enough to vault state Rep. Charles Booker (D-Louisville) into the statewide lead over retired Marine Corps helicopter pilot Amy McGrath in their battle for the Democratic US Senate nomination. The new count shows Mr. Booker with a 43.5 – 40.0% edge, or a 2,587 vote spread. Still, over half-million votes wait to be counted so the race clearly remains undecided. It does appear from all indications, however, that the end result will be very close between the two candidates.
Though little change has happened in the Kentucky Democratic US Senate primary election since Tuesday night’s reporting, the race has become closer. After the Secretary of State indicated that results would not be forthcoming until June 30th with an estimated 625,000 votes left to count, Fayette County, the state’s second largest municipality, did release some preliminary numbers and the early result is surprising.
Despite being candidate Amy McGrath’s home county, the very early Fayette numbers project state Rep. Charles Booker (D-Louisville) polling at 72%. This allows him to cut his statewide deficit to 4,066 votes from 5,104. Jefferson County, the state’s largest local entity with a population of more than 760,000 people and is home to Rep. Booker, has yet to report any tallies. Therefore, the projection that the election would tighten even more once the bevy of votes are counted has even more legs especially after seeing the preliminary Fayette returns.
Retired Marine Corps helicopter pilot Amy McGrath and state Rep. Charles Booker (D-Louisville) are locked in a tight race in early counting, but we are a long way from seeing a conclusion to this race. An estimated 625,000 ballots are making their way through the postal system and have until June 27th to arrive at the intended counting center. At this point, just under 62,000 votes are being reported. Of that number, Ms. McGrath holds a 5,104 vote edge over Mr. Booker, or a 45-37 percentage split. The Secretary of State is indicating that no statewide totals will be released until June 30th.
On the Republican side, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has clearly been re-nominated with 87% of the counted vote. While it is probable that Ms. McGrath will win the party nomination, her victory will be unimpressive considering her 20:1 advantage in primary campaign spending, which gives Sen. McConnell a major boost to begin the general election.
Despite the low returns, all six Kentucky House members were re-nominated last night. On the Republican side, the five incumbents scored between 88 and 94%. Rep. John Yarmuth (D-Louisville), though no votes have been reported in Jefferson County, is re-nominated since he was unopposed on the Democratic side. All six incumbents now become heavy favorites in what will likely be non-competitive general election contests.
State Rep. Charles Booker (D-Louisville) continues to gain momentum heading into today’s Democratic primary vote against retired Marine Corps helicopter pilot Amy McGrath. Now, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) has endorsed Mr. Booker in another attempt to solidify the left flank of the Kentucky Democratic Party.
Ms. McGrath has already raised more than $41 million for her challenge to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), and has spent over $20 million of her funding in the party primary. The most recent Kentucky poll, from the Civiqs research group polling for the Daily Kos Elections website, gave Mr. Booker a 44-36% lead over Ms. McGrath despite her huge 20:1 funding advantage when compared to her intra-party challenger.
A new Civiqs poll of the Kentucky electorate, polling for the Daily Kos Elections website (6/13-15; 898 KY registered voters), finds Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) opening up substantial leads over both of his potential general election opponents. Retired Marine Corps helicopter pilot Amy McGrath, after already raising a whopping $40 million so far for her campaign, was viewed as the clear favorite for the Democratic nomination. This Civiqs poll, however, finds state Rep. Charles Booker (D-Louisville) now taking a 44-36% lead over Ms. McGrath.
The general election data is also unfavorable for McGrath. Looking at individual ballot test results, Sen. McConnell would destroy her 57-37%, while leading Rep. Booker, 52-38%.
The Kentucky primary culminates next week on June 23rd, and Senate Democratic candidate Charles Booker, a Louisville state Representative, has just released an internal poll showing him doing much better than expected against presumptive nominee Amy McGrath.
According to Booker’s YouGovBlue survey (6/8-12; 314 KY likely Democratic primary voters, or individuals who have already cast their ballot through the early voting system), Ms. McGrath, who has already raised an eye-popping $41 million and spent half of that amount, leads her Democratic challenger by only a 49-39% margin. Among respondents who say they have yet to vote but will cast their ballot, the McGrath-Booker split is even closer, 44-37%, in the former’s favor. The winner, still very likely to be Ms. McGrath irrespective of this poll’s findings, faces Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell in the November election.
Northern Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Garrison/ Covington), who attracted headlines when he questioned the size of the Coronavirus bailout legislation and demanded a roll call vote in the House, appears to be headed for a landslide victory in his June 23rd re-nomination battle. According to a WPA Intelligence survey for the Club for Growth, the conservative economic group supporting Rep. Massie (6/10-11; 411 KY-4 likely Republican primary voters), the Congressman destroys GOP attorney Todd McMurtry, 77-11%, even up from the 70-13% split the research organization found in late April.
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