Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Garrison/ Covington), who objected to unanimous consent on the COVID-19 stimulus package thus causing a delay in its passage, has drawn President Trump’s ire. In one of his tweets, President Trump called for “throwing Massie out of the Republican Party.” Attorney Todd McMurtry opposes Rep. Massie in the May 19th GOP primary. A Trump endorsement for Mr. McMurtry may be forthcoming.
Yesterday, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee released a pair of polls from the Blue Grass State, but they are over a month old. Garin-Hart-Yang Research conducted a statewide Kentucky poll in mid-January (1/8-13; 802 KY likely general election voters) that gave Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell only a 43-40% edge over retired Marine Corps helicopter pilot Amy McGrath (D). In a similar time frame Change Research (1/17-21; 1,281 KY likely general election voters; online) forecast a dead tie between the two contenders at 41-41%.
This is a typical pattern for Mitch McConnell. In his last two elections, early and mid-campaign polling found him to be in a close race, and then he ran away with a 53 (2008) and 56% (2014) victory margin in each of those electoral contests. We can expect a similar pattern and result to occur in this coming election.
Though retired Marine Corps helicopter pilot Amy McGrath (D) continues to raise big dollars and now reports having $9.1 million in her campaign account to challenge Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R), a new Democratic challenger officially announced his candidacy yesterday. State Rep. Charles Booker (D-Louisville) says that he will run for the Senate and compete for the party nomination.
There are ten other announced Democratic candidates, but none appear competitive. It remains to be seen whether Mr. Booker, who may have a strong base within the African American community, can compete statewide with Ms. McGrath. The Kentucky primary is May 19th. Sen. McConnell will be favored in the general election regardless of who wins the Democratic primary.
Kentucky Radio sports personality Matt Jones (D), who had been flirting with entering the US Senate race to ultimately face Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R), has decided not to run. This very likely means that retired Marine Corps helicopter pilot and failed congressional candidate Amy McGrath will become the Democratic nominee.
Though challenged by several Democrats, including state Rep. Charles Booker (D-Louisville) and retired Marine Corps officer and ex-newspaper editor Mike Broihier who are the most significant of her primary opponents, McGrath’s overwhelming financial advantage – she has already raised $10.7 million for the race – makes it difficult to see anyone being able to slip past her to win the party nomination. McGrath will receive national attention, and polling is likely to show this race close early, but Sen. McConnell is again the clear favorite.
Despite threatening to force further vote counting because the November 5th election result was so close, Gov. Matt Bevin (R conceded defeat yesterday to Attorney General Andy Beshear (D). Through the canvassing process, Mr. Beshear’s 5,190 vote lead from more than 1.4 million ballots cast was sustained, which was an expected conclusion.
Though the election was extremely close, a raw vote margin of greater than 5,000 is rarely overturned. Unless a major machine or counting error occurred, and there is no evidence of such, even a margin of this small size would typically hold through the course of a re-count. Therefore, Governor-Elect Beshear will take office in Kentucky next month.
Last night, Attorney General Andy Beshear (D) unseated Republican Gov. Matt Bevin with a tight 49.2 – 48.8% margin, a spread of just 5,150 votes of more than 1.41 million votes cast. Gov. Bevin had lagging approval ratings throughout most of his term, usually putting him at the bottom of the 50-state job approval ratings.
The Governor under-performed in the eastern coal country region, running behind most Republican candidates, which proved a major reason for his defeat. A controversial mining healthcare issue was largely at the center of controversy surrounding the Governor within a group that typically supports the GOP, and then again did so in the remaining statewide offices. Down ballot, the Republicans swept the other offices last night with substantial percentages including converting the Attorney General and Secretary of State positions.
The Kentucky Governor’s race will be decided on November 5th, and a new Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy survey (10/10-13; 625 KY registered voters) paints a different picture of the race as the campaigns begin to enter the stretch drive. The last poll released here was in late August, from Garin-Hart-Yang Research, and it gave Democratic Attorney General Andy Beshear a 48-39% lead over Gov. Matt Bevin (R).
The Mason-Dixon results find a different trend. According to M-D, the race has now evolved into a flat tie with both candidates deadlocked at 46%. It is clear that Gov. Bevin has again made this race competitive, and we can now expect a dash to the political finish line.
Retired Marine Corps helicopter pilot Amy McGrath (D), who raised over $8.6 million for a congressional race in 2018, logged an enormous 3rd Quarter in fundraising for her new Senate race. Ms. McGrath, challenging Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R), attracted a whopping $10.7 million for her campaign just in the last twelve weeks. Mega millions will be spent in this race, but Sen. McConnell, first elected in 1984, will continue to be the favorite to win again regardless of the amounts raised and spent against him.
A new Garin Hart Yang Research Group internal survey for the Andy Beshear for Governor campaign shows incumbent Matt Bevin (R) falling behind Democratic Attorney General Beshear. According to the poll (8/19-22; 501 KY likely voters) Beshear has jumped out to 48-39% lead over Gov. Bevin for the November 2019 election.
In 2018, retired Marine Corps fighter pilot Amy McGrath (D) raised and spent over $8 million to challenge GOP Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington), and came within three percentage points of beating him. Now in the Senate race against Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R), the Democrats were actively attempting to recruit a new challenger for Mr. Barr.
Yesterday, it was announced that another Marine Corps veteran, Josh Hicks (D), has stepped forward to run for Congress. It remains to be seen if he can raise as much in the way of resources as Ms. McGrath did but, considering Rep. Barr’s strong performance in 2018, it will be much more difficult to dislodge him in 2020 and especially so with President Trump running strongly in the state.
The Rundown Blog
Before you vote, learn more about the candidates who will support a pro-jobs America.