Early voting reports are emanating from Nevada for the caucus vote coming this Saturday. The state election authorities scheduled two days of early voting, an unusual procedure for this nomination format since the caucus system features actual precinct meetings. So far, more than 70,000 preference sheets – their ranked choice procedure does not feature a ballot – have been recorded. This number represents 83% of those attending the 2016 Nevada caucus meetings. Next door in California, where early voting began on February 3rd for the March 3rd Super Tuesday primary, over 1 million votes have already been cast in the Democratic presidential primary.
Former US Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) in an interview as he was casting his early vote for the February 22nd Nevada Democratic Caucus, indicated that he was using all of his ranked choices to support an uncommitted delegate slate rather than any particular candidate. With the race tight and no clear leader emerging, it is possible that voting for uncommitted delegates could be an option that emerges as we move deeper into the nomination contest.
Like in Iowa, the Nevada Caucus participants have the opportunity of having a second or third choice count if their original candidate fails to qualify for delegate apportionment. Candidates must reach 15% to earn bound delegate votes.
As a possible precursor to Reid’s statement and strategy, the state’s politically powerful Culinary Workers labor union announced it would endorse no Democratic candidate.
Learning from the Iowa Caucus fiasco, the Nevada Democratic Party leaders, who had adopted the same IT system as Iowa but dropped it as soon as it failed in the Hawkeye State, yesterday announced their new counting and reporting procedure. Using iPads and other common technical devices and communication options, the Nevada Democrats look to be better prepared for all contingencies.
Their system, however, is just as potentially confusing as Iowa’s because they, too, are going to allow re-voting for people who support a candidate not making the 15% delegate apportionment cut. With early voting occurring from tomorrow through Monday in anticipation of the February 22nd caucus voting day, individuals will register their first choice and then have the option of ranking as many as four other candidates should their original choices fail to reach 15% of the popular vote. The system appears to have some of the same potential flaws that made the Iowa result extremely close and convoluted. That being the case, the eventual Nevada tally may also end in clouded fashion.
Pulling closer to February, much more polling attention is being paid to Nevada. The state caucuses will be held on Saturday, February 22nd, and occupy the third position on the nomination voting calendar. According to a new Myers Research/Strategy Services poll (1/2-8; 600 NV likely Democratic caucus attenders) it is Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) who clings to a one-point, 29-28% edge over former Vice President Joe Biden. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) is third with 14%, followed by billionaire Tom Steyer, South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, and businessman Andrew Yang consecutively with 8-6-5 percent.
It appears billionaire Tom Steyer’s $100+ million media expenditure is beginning to pay dividends. According to the new Fox News Poll (1/5-8; 635 NV likely Democratic caucus attenders), Mr. Steyer has moved into a third place tie with Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) at 12% for the February 22nd Nevada Caucus vote. Former Vice President Joe Biden leads the pack with 23% support as Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) is close behind with 17% preference. Mayor Pete Buttigieg lost support from the last Nevada poll, now recording just 6 percent. Businessman Andrew Yang and Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ), both tallying 3%, close out the survey.
International pollster YouGov conducted simultaneous surveys in the first four voting states and finds former Vice President Joe Biden having trouble in Iowa and New Hampshire but doing well in Nevada and South Carolina. All of the surveys were conducted between Nov 6-13, with sampling sizes ranging from 570 to 877 likely Democratic voters.
In Iowa, Mr. Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) are tied with just 22% apiece. Following in a virtual three-way tie is South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 21%, while Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) closely trails with 19%. Mr. Biden is significantly behind Sen. Warren in New Hampshire (31-22%), while Sen. Sanders and Mayor Buttigieg record 20 and 16%, respectively.
Conversely, Mr. Biden opens up a lead in Nevada, 33-23-21-9%, over Sanders, Warren and Buttigieg, where, in South Carolina, the former Vice President is staked to a wide 45-17-15-8% advantage over Warren, Sanders, and Buttigieg. The question that can’t yet be answered is whether Mr. Biden could withstand losing the first two nominating events without weakening his vote base in Nevada and South Carolina.
Fox News released their new Nevada Democratic caucus survey (11/10-13; 627 NV likely Democratic caucus attenders) and found former Vice President Joe Biden holding a significant advantage over Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Bernie Sanders (I-VT), a pattern that appears throughout the South. This data shows Mr. Biden leading his two major opponents, 24-18-18%. Mayor Pete Buttigieg, while making strides in Iowa and in some national polls, fails to reach double-digits in Nevada. He posts only 8 percent.
In terms of the delegate count, because the top three candidates are exceeding 15% of the statewide vote, Mr. Biden and Sens. Warren and Sanders would qualify for delegate apportionment. With Nevada having only 36 first ballot delegates, Mr. Biden would claim 14 of them, while Warren and Sanders would each earn eleven delegates apiece.
Former Vice President Joe Biden continues to forge ahead in a Nevada Caucus poll. The Silver State will vote third in the Democratic presidential nomination process, scheduled for February 22nd, and will have more prominence this year than in past elections.
According to the new Mellman Group survey (10/28-11/2; 600 potential Democratic Caucus attenders), Mr. Biden posts a 29-19-19-7% lead over Senators Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), Bernie Sanders (I-VT), and Mayor Pete Buttigieg. Under this configuration, Biden, Warren, and Sanders would all qualify for delegate apportionment because they would exceed 15% in the at-large popular vote.
A total of 219 House Democrats and one Independent have signed the petition pledge indicating they will vote for at least some version of an impeachment resolution. Doing so would impeach, or indict, the President, and send the charge to the Senate for a potential trial and motion to remove from office. Among the signers are several members who have competitive re-elections, are in Trump districts, or have primary competition. The lone Independent, Rep. Justin Amash (I-MI), will likely face attacks from both sides as he presumably seeks re-election as an Independent or minor party nominee.
The Democrats supporting impeachment who already face credible general election opposition are (listed alphabetically by name) Reps: Cindy Axne (IA), Gil Cisneros (CA), Sharice Davids (KS), Antonio Delgado (NY), Abby Finkenauer (IA), Lizzie Fletcher (TX), Andy Kim (NJ), Susie Lee (NV), Elaine Luria (VA), Tom Malinowski (NJ), Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (FL), Chris Pappas (NH), Katie Porter (CA), Harley Rouda (CA), Elissa Slotkin (MI), Abigail Spanberger (VA), and Lauren Underwood (IL).
Suffolk University in Boston released the results of their new Nevada survey (9/19-23; 500 NV likely Democratic caucus attenders) and found former Vice President Joe Biden returning to first place. Suffolk sees a tight contest between Biden and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), 23-19%, with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) recording 14% support. Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) scores a disappointing 4% in her neighboring state, just ahead of South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg and New York City businessman Andrew Yang who both register 3% preference. Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) has 2%, and all others post 1% or less.
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