International pollster YouGov conducted simultaneous surveys in the first four voting states and finds former Vice President Joe Biden having trouble in Iowa and New Hampshire but doing well in Nevada and South Carolina. All of the surveys were conducted between Nov 6-13, with sampling sizes ranging from 570 to 877 likely Democratic voters.
In Iowa, Mr. Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) are tied with just 22% apiece. Following in a virtual three-way tie is South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 21%, while Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) closely trails with 19%. Mr. Biden is significantly behind Sen. Warren in New Hampshire (31-22%), while Sen. Sanders and Mayor Buttigieg record 20 and 16%, respectively.
Conversely, Mr. Biden opens up a lead in Nevada, 33-23-21-9%, over Sanders, Warren and Buttigieg, where, in South Carolina, the former Vice President is staked to a wide 45-17-15-8% advantage over Warren, Sanders, and Buttigieg. The question that can’t yet be answered is whether Mr. Biden could withstand losing the first two nominating events without weakening his vote base in Nevada and South Carolina.
Fox News released their new Nevada Democratic caucus survey (11/10-13; 627 NV likely Democratic caucus attenders) and found former Vice President Joe Biden holding a significant advantage over Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Bernie Sanders (I-VT), a pattern that appears throughout the South. This data shows Mr. Biden leading his two major opponents, 24-18-18%. Mayor Pete Buttigieg, while making strides in Iowa and in some national polls, fails to reach double-digits in Nevada. He posts only 8 percent.
In terms of the delegate count, because the top three candidates are exceeding 15% of the statewide vote, Mr. Biden and Sens. Warren and Sanders would qualify for delegate apportionment. With Nevada having only 36 first ballot delegates, Mr. Biden would claim 14 of them, while Warren and Sanders would each earn eleven delegates apiece.
Former Vice President Joe Biden continues to forge ahead in a Nevada Caucus poll. The Silver State will vote third in the Democratic presidential nomination process, scheduled for February 22nd, and will have more prominence this year than in past elections.
According to the new Mellman Group survey (10/28-11/2; 600 potential Democratic Caucus attenders), Mr. Biden posts a 29-19-19-7% lead over Senators Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), Bernie Sanders (I-VT), and Mayor Pete Buttigieg. Under this configuration, Biden, Warren, and Sanders would all qualify for delegate apportionment because they would exceed 15% in the at-large popular vote.
A total of 219 House Democrats and one Independent have signed the petition pledge indicating they will vote for at least some version of an impeachment resolution. Doing so would impeach, or indict, the President, and send the charge to the Senate for a potential trial and motion to remove from office. Among the signers are several members who have competitive re-elections, are in Trump districts, or have primary competition. The lone Independent, Rep. Justin Amash (I-MI), will likely face attacks from both sides as he presumably seeks re-election as an Independent or minor party nominee.
The Democrats supporting impeachment who already face credible general election opposition are (listed alphabetically by name) Reps: Cindy Axne (IA), Gil Cisneros (CA), Sharice Davids (KS), Antonio Delgado (NY), Abby Finkenauer (IA), Lizzie Fletcher (TX), Andy Kim (NJ), Susie Lee (NV), Elaine Luria (VA), Tom Malinowski (NJ), Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (FL), Chris Pappas (NH), Katie Porter (CA), Harley Rouda (CA), Elissa Slotkin (MI), Abigail Spanberger (VA), and Lauren Underwood (IL).
Suffolk University in Boston released the results of their new Nevada survey (9/19-23; 500 NV likely Democratic caucus attenders) and found former Vice President Joe Biden returning to first place. Suffolk sees a tight contest between Biden and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), 23-19%, with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) recording 14% support. Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) scores a disappointing 4% in her neighboring state, just ahead of South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg and New York City businessman Andrew Yang who both register 3% preference. Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) has 2%, and all others post 1% or less.
The YouGov international polling organization conducted simultaneous polls for the February voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. Though these states are small, having only 155 combined delegates, they tend to set the tone for Super Tuesday and the bulk of the voting. According to YouGov, former Vice President Joe Biden, and Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) are close in each of the four places. Mr. Biden leads in Iowa and South Carolina, Sen. Sanders places first in Nevada, and Sen. Warren tops the field in New Hampshire. None of the other candidates even reach double-digits in any of the four states.
The Democratic National Committee has officially killed an idea that the party leadership for both the Iowa and Nevada caucuses had been pushing. In order to increase participation in their respective presidential conclaves, the state party leaders were moving forward with a procedure to allow qualified voters to cast their caucus votes without attending the actual precinct meetings.
The national party leadership, at the behest of DNC chairman Tom Perez, voted at the end of last week to prohibit this proposed cyber-cast voting either through an online or telephone administrative process. Mr. Perez argued that the cyber-voting would not be sufficiently secure, hence the idea was rejected. As in the past, voters will have to attend the 2020 caucus meeting in order to vote, though both states will install a verified absentee ballot option.
The Republican leadership in at least four states is moving toward canceling their primary or caucus, and instead simply awarding all of their delegate votes to President Trump. The states seriously weighing the option include two of the “First Four,” South Carolina and Nevada, the electorates from which are scheduled to vote in February. Kansas and Arizona are the other two states. Others could then follow their lead.
This act is not particularly unusual. Several states in both parties have previously canceled primaries when their party held the Presidency. Such happened for Presidents George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama. The leaders argue that party funds spent to help administer the primary election or caucus meetings would be better spent in the general election to support their candidates.
Gravis Marketing just surveyed the important Nevada Caucus prospective electorate (8/14-16; 382 likely NV Democratic caucus participants from a survey universe of 926 registered voters) and finds former Vice President Joe Biden developing a comfortable lead but with a low support level. The results find Mr. Biden commanding 25% preference followed by Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) at 15%, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) posting 10%, and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) close behind him with 9 percent.
For the also-rans, billionaire Tom Steyer posted 6% and Mayor Pete Buttigieg 5%, while Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ), businessman Andrew Yang, Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI), Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO), and New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio recorded either 3 or 2%. All others finished at 1% or below.
The Nevada Caucus is third on the election calendar and will likely prove to be a more important nominating event than it has in previous elections.
The Nevada Caucus, which is the third nomination event on the 2020 calendar and scheduled for Saturday, February 22nd, should become more prominent in this year’s campaign. If two different Democratic presidential candidates finish first in Iowa and New Hampshire, Nevada will prove an interesting momentum springboard into the South Carolina primary, which is right before the March 3rd Super Tuesday voting. A total of 14 states and one territory, representing a combined total of 1,400 first ballot delegates, will hold their elections on the first Tuesday in March.
The Morning Consult firm just released their latest polling numbers for the Nevada Caucus, which came from their rolling national sample conducted during the first three weeks of July. The 749 Nevada Democratic respondents give former Vice President Joe Biden a 29-23% lead over Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) with Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Kamala Harris (D-CA) following with 12 and 11%, respectively. All other candidates landed in single digits.
In 2016, Hillary Clinton scored a relatively close victory over Sen. Sanders (Clinton 46%, Sanders 35%, Uncommitted Slate 19%) in the Nevada Caucus, but the event was marked with short tempers and various physical altercations at the main venue in Las Vegas.
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