A total of 219 House Democrats and one Independent have signed the petition pledge indicating they will vote for at least some version of an impeachment resolution. Doing so would impeach, or indict, the President, and send the charge to the Senate for a potential trial and motion to remove from office. Among the signers are several members who have competitive re-elections, are in Trump districts, or have primary competition. The lone Independent, Rep. Justin Amash (I-MI), will likely face attacks from both sides as he presumably seeks re-election as an Independent or minor party nominee.
The Democrats supporting impeachment who already face credible general election opposition are (listed alphabetically by name) Reps: Cindy Axne (IA), Gil Cisneros (CA), Sharice Davids (KS), Antonio Delgado (NY), Abby Finkenauer (IA), Lizzie Fletcher (TX), Andy Kim (NJ), Susie Lee (NV), Elaine Luria (VA), Tom Malinowski (NJ), Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (FL), Chris Pappas (NH), Katie Porter (CA), Harley Rouda (CA), Elissa Slotkin (MI), Abigail Spanberger (VA), and Lauren Underwood (IL).
Suffolk University in Boston released the results of their new Nevada survey (9/19-23; 500 NV likely Democratic caucus attenders) and found former Vice President Joe Biden returning to first place. Suffolk sees a tight contest between Biden and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), 23-19%, with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) recording 14% support. Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) scores a disappointing 4% in her neighboring state, just ahead of South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg and New York City businessman Andrew Yang who both register 3% preference. Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) has 2%, and all others post 1% or less.
The YouGov international polling organization conducted simultaneous polls for the February voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. Though these states are small, having only 155 combined delegates, they tend to set the tone for Super Tuesday and the bulk of the voting. According to YouGov, former Vice President Joe Biden, and Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) are close in each of the four places. Mr. Biden leads in Iowa and South Carolina, Sen. Sanders places first in Nevada, and Sen. Warren tops the field in New Hampshire. None of the other candidates even reach double-digits in any of the four states.
The Democratic National Committee has officially killed an idea that the party leadership for both the Iowa and Nevada caucuses had been pushing. In order to increase participation in their respective presidential conclaves, the state party leaders were moving forward with a procedure to allow qualified voters to cast their caucus votes without attending the actual precinct meetings.
The national party leadership, at the behest of DNC chairman Tom Perez, voted at the end of last week to prohibit this proposed cyber-cast voting either through an online or telephone administrative process. Mr. Perez argued that the cyber-voting would not be sufficiently secure, hence the idea was rejected. As in the past, voters will have to attend the 2020 caucus meeting in order to vote, though both states will install a verified absentee ballot option.
The Republican leadership in at least four states is moving toward canceling their primary or caucus, and instead simply awarding all of their delegate votes to President Trump. The states seriously weighing the option include two of the “First Four,” South Carolina and Nevada, the electorates from which are scheduled to vote in February. Kansas and Arizona are the other two states. Others could then follow their lead.
This act is not particularly unusual. Several states in both parties have previously canceled primaries when their party held the Presidency. Such happened for Presidents George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama. The leaders argue that party funds spent to help administer the primary election or caucus meetings would be better spent in the general election to support their candidates.
Gravis Marketing just surveyed the important Nevada Caucus prospective electorate (8/14-16; 382 likely NV Democratic caucus participants from a survey universe of 926 registered voters) and finds former Vice President Joe Biden developing a comfortable lead but with a low support level. The results find Mr. Biden commanding 25% preference followed by Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) at 15%, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) posting 10%, and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) close behind him with 9 percent.
For the also-rans, billionaire Tom Steyer posted 6% and Mayor Pete Buttigieg 5%, while Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ), businessman Andrew Yang, Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI), Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO), and New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio recorded either 3 or 2%. All others finished at 1% or below.
The Nevada Caucus is third on the election calendar and will likely prove to be a more important nominating event than it has in previous elections.
The Nevada Caucus, which is the third nomination event on the 2020 calendar and scheduled for Saturday, February 22nd, should become more prominent in this year’s campaign. If two different Democratic presidential candidates finish first in Iowa and New Hampshire, Nevada will prove an interesting momentum springboard into the South Carolina primary, which is right before the March 3rd Super Tuesday voting. A total of 14 states and one territory, representing a combined total of 1,400 first ballot delegates, will hold their elections on the first Tuesday in March.
The Morning Consult firm just released their latest polling numbers for the Nevada Caucus, which came from their rolling national sample conducted during the first three weeks of July. The 749 Nevada Democratic respondents give former Vice President Joe Biden a 29-23% lead over Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) with Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Kamala Harris (D-CA) following with 12 and 11%, respectively. All other candidates landed in single digits.
In 2016, Hillary Clinton scored a relatively close victory over Sen. Sanders (Clinton 46%, Sanders 35%, Uncommitted Slate 19%) in the Nevada Caucus, but the event was marked with short tempers and various physical altercations at the main venue in Las Vegas.
The central Nevada 4th District, created in the 2011 redistricting plan to cover the northern Las Vegas area and stretch to through the central part of the state, will again be very active in the 2020 election cycle. Yesterday, Nye County Commissioner Lee Blundo (R) joined the growing field of Republican candidates who will compete for the party nomination to challenge Rep. Steven Horsford (D-Las Vegas) next year. Five other Republicans, including former state Assemblyman Jim Marchant, are already in the race. Though clearly leaning Democratic, the 4th District has not yet re-elected any of its incumbents since created at the beginning of the decade as the state’s newly awarded seat.
Entrepreneur Lisa Song Sutton, who was Miss Nevada USA in 2014, announced that she will seek the Republican nomination to eventually challenge Rep. Steven Horsford (D-Las Vegas). Though the district leans Democratic, the campaign could become competitive.
Mr. Horsford was first elected in 2012 when the seat was added to the Nevada delegation as a result of the 2010 apportionment. But, he lost re-election after one term to Republican Cresent Hardy, who then lost his own re-election two years later. When Rep. Ruben Kihuen (D-Las Vegas) ran into a sex scandal and didn’t seek his first re-election, Mr. Horsford returned, this time defeating Mr. Hardy. The short electoral history indicates that the 4th District electorate has yet to re-elect its incumbent. Therefore, a Horsford-Sutton match could become a race to watch.
In what is becoming a familiar pattern across the country, former Vice President Joe Biden now leads the Nevada Caucus according to a new Monmouth University survey (6/6-11; 370 NV likely Democratic Caucus attenders). Monmouth projects Mr. Biden placing first with 36% over Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) who has surged to 19% as Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), who had trouble in Nevada back in 2016, drops to 13 percent.
All other candidates are in single digits led by Mayor Pete Buttigieg with 7% and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) with 6%. If Sen. Harris is going to become a factor before the important California primary on March 3rd, Nevada is one place where she will need to finish strongly.
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