AL-1: First Announcement for 2026: It appears we have our first announcement of candidacy for the 2026 election cycle. Alabama US Rep. Jerry Carl (R-Mobile), who was defeated for renomination in March when he and Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) were paired in a new 1st District in response to a court-ordered redistricting directive to draw another majority minority congressional seat, has filed a campaign committee for the 2026 election cycle.
Therefore, it appears we will see a rematch of the contest where Rep. Moore, who saw only 41% of his previous territory be included in the new 1st District, defeated Rep. Carl by a 51.7 – 48.3% result even though the latter man outspent the winner by a 2:1 margin. Should this rematch actually transpire in two years, it will again be competitive. CA-16: Early Recount Produces Leader: The recount of the CA-16 primary that resulted in a tied result between San Mateo County Supervisor Joe Simitian (D) and Assemblyman Evan Low (D-Campbell) for the second general election qualifying position is underway. In Santa Clara County, the larger of the two municipalities that comprise the Silicon Valley 16th Congressional District, a reported 77 of the district’s 199 precincts have been machine recounted, and Mr. Simitian has so far captured a three-vote lead. A political action committee with ties to first place finisher Sam Liccardo (D), the former San Jose Mayor, is reportedly financing the recount, which is likely to cost approximately $300,000. In almost every situation, a recount changes the election result at least by a few votes. This means we will likely see either Mr. Simitian or Mr. Low likely be declared the official second-place finisher once this process concludes. The votes were originally cast on March 5th. If the two remain tied, both will advance to the general election to create a three-way race with Mr. Liccardo. If the latter man is behind the financing of the recount that neither Simitian nor Low requested, then it is clear that Liccardo believes a two-way race is to his benefit. MI-13: Rep. Thanedar (D) Draws Another Primary Challenger: Another budding primary challenge faces Michigan freshman Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-Detroit). In 2022, he won an open Democratic primary with just 28% of the vote, and the second place finisher, then-state Sen. Adam Hollier, who secured 21% in a field of nine Democratic candidates long ago announced his return for a rematch. Now, former Southfield City Clerk Shakira Hawkins (D), who resigned from office before felony charges were levied against her, has announced her own congressional candidacy. Also in the Democratic primary race is Detroit City Councilwoman and former state Representative Mary Waters. This will again be a competitive contest, but the more crowded the field, the better for Rep. Thanedar who has the financial wherewithal to outspend his opponents. Candidate filing ends today for the August 6th primary election, so we will soon see the official field form. The 13th District, one of two anchored in Detroit, is heavily Democratic. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates it as D+46, so Rep. Thanedar’s race for re-election lies in the Democratic primary. Comments are closed.
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