CA-16: Recount Ordered: The Silicon Valley anchored open 16th Congressional District is the site of an oddity in California’s top two jungle primary system. The official primary vote count produced a tie between the second and third place finishers, meaning three individuals will advance to the general election instead of just two. Fearing that again counting the votes could alter the outcome, neither tied candidate, San Mateo County Supervisor Joe Simitian (D) or Assemblyman Evan Low (D-Campbell), called for a recount.
Early this week, however, an individual placed a $12,000 deposit to begin the machine recount. Jonathan Padilla is a 2020 Joe Biden convention delegate, according to the Daily Kos Elections site, who used to work for former San Jose Mayor Sam Riccardo (D), the man who secured the first ballot qualifying position for the 16th District general election. The entire recount will cost an estimated $84,000, so it is unclear if Padilla will continue with the payments. If the recount does progress, however, it would not be surprising to see the final count change by a handful of votes, thus one of the two tied candidates could still be eliminated. Texas: Trump Leads Among TX Hispanics: The Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation conducted a recent poll of the Lone Star State electorate (4/5-10; 1,600 TX likely voters) and finds Donald Trump posting a twelve-point lead over President Joe Biden in a five-way race that includes the two major party candidates, Independent Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., Green Party nominee Jill Stein, and potential Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver. The preference split was 46-34-9-2-1% in the above candidate order. Texas, the second largest state in population, has 40 electoral votes to award to its presidential winner.
The most interesting part of the poll, however, was the vote division among Hispanics. Within this segment, Mr. Trump actually leads President Biden 41-37%, which is another indication that Trump has upward mobility among Hispanics while the President exhibits clear weakness within the community. Mr. Trump also does well with Texas women, leading the President, 44-34%, a trend not seen in many other places. His spread among Lone Star men is 50-34%. Maryland: Trone Rebounds from Close Poll: Yesterday, we reported on a poll from Maryland Democratic Senate candidate Angela Alsobrooks (Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group; 4/8-10; 600 MD likely Democratic primary voters; live interview) that found her trailing US Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac) by just three percentage points, 43-40%.
Already, we see a counter poll, this one coming from the Baltimore Sun newspaper. According to their new survey (OpinionWorks; 4/7-10; 1,292 MD likely general election voters; 600 Democratic primary voters), Rep. Trone holds a commanding advantage over Ms. Alsobrooks, topping her 48-29%. With such an obvious difference between the two professional polls conducted in the same time frame with identical sample sizes, it is clear we will need further data to better understand where this race resides. Expect heavy campaigning to occur as we move closer to the May 14th Maryland primary. AL-2: Shomari Figures Wins Dem Runoff: As expected, Obama Justice Department official Shomari Figures, who placed first in the original Democratic primary back on March 5th, easily defeated state House Minority Leader Anthony Daniels by a 61-39% count. Mr. Figures, the son of parents who both served in the Alabama Senate, now advances to the general election where he will be favored to win a newly created district that President Biden would have carried 56-43%.
The Republican runoff ended with a surprise, as attorney Caroleen Dobson upset former state Senator Dick Brewbaker with a 58-42% victory. In the March 5th primary, Mr. Brewbaker led a field of eight candidates. Ms. Dobson trailed Brewbaker by over twelve percentage points and only qualified for the second runoff position by 632 votes over the third place finisher. Like Mr. Figures, Ms. Dobson will now advance into the November 5th general election. Indiana: Braun Attacked for Supporting BLM: While Senator Mike Braun (R) has shown Republican primary polling strength against Lt. Governor Suzanne Crouch, former state Commerce Secretary Brad Chambers, and venture capitalist Eric Doden in their battle for the open Governor’s position, he is now under attack for statement indicating his support for the Black Lives Matter organization.
The American Advancement organization is running ads featuring Braun saying, “I support that movement because it's addressing an inequity that has not been solved.” The ad further has him saying he would, “if asked” join a BLM protest as the narrator continually calls him a “RINO” (Republican In Name Only). It remains to be seen if the Super Pac buys enough airtime to make their negative attack on Sen. Braun stick. Arizona: Trump Leading Despite Abortion Ruling: With the Arizona state Supreme Court upholding a more than century old abortion law after the US Supreme Court overturned the Roe v. Wade decision, Fabrizio Lee & Associates tested the Arizona electorate for ex-President Donald Trump’s campaign (4/7-11; 400 AZ likely general election voters; live interview & text).
According to the poll analysis, the heavy coverage of the abortion issue in the state has not swayed the swing voters. While Democrats largely mention abortion as the most important recent issue, independents, and a category that Fabrizio Lee terms as “Persuadables,” do not. Therefore, President Biden is not gaining new votes according to this survey sample. Thus, the ballot test, which includes Trump, Biden, Independent Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., Green Party nominee Jill Stein, and probable Libertarian Party nominee Lars Mapstead, finds Mr. Trump leading the field with a 42-37-10-2-1% margin, respectively. Arizona is one of the seven critical swing states that will determine the national presidential election’s outcome Maryland: Trone Primary Lead Cut to 3 Points: Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks released an internal US Senate Democratic primary poll (Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group; 4/8-10; 600 MD likely Democratic primary voters; live interview) and found US Rep. David Trone’s (D-Potomac) lead dropping to only three points. Despite an overwhelming advantage in campaign spending – Trone had spent $24 million just through the end of 2023 – he has apparently not fully pulled away to secure the party nomination. In three independent March polls, Mr. Trone had chronological leads of 11, 12 and 7 points.
The final month of this intraparty battle will be intense. Because she knew her campaign would be badly outspent against the near-billionaire Trone, Ms. Alsobrooks saved her money until the final month. If the race has closed to within three points as this poll suggests, we can expect a major effort from both candidates down the stretch toward the May 14th Democratic primary election. The eventual party nominee will then face former Gov. Larry Hogan (R) in what is becoming a competitive general election. AL-2: Congressional Runoffs Today: Alabama’s new court-ordered 2nd CD will host its runoff elections today for candidates in both parties. The seat was drawn to elect an African American Democrat, so the Democratic winner will have the inside track for the November general election.
On the Democratic side, former Obama Justice Department official Shomari Figures is favored in tonight’s vote over state House Minority Leader Anthony Daniels. Mr. Figures outdistanced Rep. Daniels in the March 5th primary with a 43-22% vote margin. The Republican candidates are former state Sen. Dick Brewbaker and attorney Caroleene Dobson. Mr. Brewbaker placed first in the GOP primary with 40% of the vote compared with Ms. Dobson’s 26%. The new 2nd District is 55.6% minority. African Americans comprise 48.7% of the total with Hispanics at 3.1%. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates the AL-2 partisan lean at 53.6D – 45.2R, suggesting that while Democrats will be favored to convert this seat, Republicans will likely be active in attempting to hold the position. If the GOP is able to garner higher percentages among minorities, as some polls indicate, this district could feature a closer general election campaign. The new 2nd stretches from Mississippi to Georgia and is anchored in the state’s capital city of Montgomery. Indiana: Sen. Braun Increases Gov Lead: The latest Survey USA poll (conducted for the Howey Politics Indiana blog; 4/4-7; 447 IN likely Republican primary voters; online) finds Sen. Mike Braun (R) increasing his Republican primary lead in the open Governor’s race. This new ballot test shows Sen. Braun holding a 34 point lead over his closest competitor.
The numbers find Mr. Braun leading 44-10-8-8% over Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch, former state Commerce Secretary Brad Chambers, and venture capitalist Eric Doden. The two March polls, from Crossroads Public Affairs and Emerson College, posted Sen. Braun with support preference totals of 34 and 33%. The eventual Republican nominee is a virtual lock to keep the open Governorship in the Republican column. Two-term incumbent Eric Holcomb (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. Nevada: Brown Posts Big Primary Lead: A new Tarrance Group poll for the National Republican Senatorial Committee produces good news for endorsed candidate Sam Brown, the businessman and Afghan War disabled veteran. The survey (4/7-10; 500 NV likely Republican primary voters; live interview) finds Mr. Brown posting 58% support. His closest opponent, former state Assemblyman and past Secretary of State and congressional nominee Jim Marchant, records only a 6% preference factor. Former US Ambassador to Iceland Jeff Gunter, who has pledged to spend $3 million of his own money to fund his candidacy, and former Lt. Governor candidate Tony Grady each have only 3% support.
Aside from yielding Mr. Brown highly positive reviews, the survey data returns bad news for Mr. Gunter. When the respondents were asked for their second choice in the race, Mr. Marchant posted 30% as opposed to Mr. Gunter’s 4 percent. The winner of the June 11th primary then challenges Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) in what will be a premier general election campaign. West Virginia: Justice Continues Holding Commanding Lead: Research America published the results of their early April survey (4/3-9; 400 WV likely Republican primary voters; live interview & online) that again sees Gov. Jim Justice (R) holding a huge lead over Rep. Alex Mooney (R-Charles Town) as the two compete to succeed retiring Sen. Joe Manchin (D). As has been found in many other surveys, Research America pegs the Justice lead at 66-24% as the two enter the final month of campaigning. The West Virginia primary is scheduled for May 14th. Winning the West Virginia race in November is critical to Republican hopes of capturing the Senate, and the eventual Republican nominee should have little trouble converting the seat in the general election. Doing so would even the Senate’s partisan division at 50D-50R. |
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