A new Quinnipiac University poll (4/12-17; 1,029 TX registered voters) finds Sen. Ted Cruz (R) leading Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-El Paso) only 47-44% in a prelude to the general election. But, many inconsistencies are present in the poll, particularly when observing that Sen. Cruz is viewed as handling every issue better than O’Rourke. The sampling discrepancy appears in the Independent category, which breaks hard for O’Rourke and is grouped at a higher rate than both Republicans and Democrats. Thus, the results suggest the data may be skewed.
While clear that Rep. O’Rourke will have the resources to compete with Sen. Cruz, it is still highly doubtful that he can overcome Cruz’s inherent Republican advantages once the campaign fully plays out for November. Both Sen. Cruz and Rep. O’Rourke won their respective party nominations outright in the March 6th Texas primary election. --Jim Ellis A day after Magellan Strategies released a survey that showed Rep. Martha McSally (R-Tucson) expanding her previous lead in the Republican Senate primary, OH Predictive Insights for ABC15 in Phoenix finds a completely different take. Their poll (4/10-11; 600 AZ 600 likely voters; 302 AZ likely Republican primary voters) shows ex-state Sen. Kelli Ward, who was in last place in the Magellan survey and all others previously commissioned, to be leading Rep. McSally and former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, 36-27-22%. Looking at the sample size of just 302 Republican voters from the entire state suggests the error factor is extremely high for this study, and even more questionable when seeing that no other survey result projects Ms. Ward with the overall lead.
In the general election, where the sample size of 600 should yield more accurate information, Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Phoenix), the consensus presumed Democratic nominee, leads all three Republicans. The closest match up comes with Rep. McSally, where the three-term Democratic Congresswoman leads 48-42%. --Jim Ellis The North Dakota Secretary of State published a list of qualified state candidates yesterday, and predictions that the general election for the Senate race is already set came true. Such prognostications were made once Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D) and at-large Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-Bismarck) both won unanimous endorsements at the state party conventions held within the past couple of weeks. Once the unified endorsements were made, the June 12th primary election for both parties appeared moot.
On the Democratic side, Sen. Heitkamp is now officially unopposed in the party primary, while Rep. Cramer sees only former Niagra Mayor Thomas O’Neill coming forward to challenge him for the Republican nomination. Therefore, the Heitkamp-Cramer general election is now a certainty. --Jim Ellis The aforementioned Quinnipiac University poll (see Texas Senate above) also tested Gov. Greg Abbott’s (R) re-election standing and produced even more questionable results. According to the data, the Governor would lead Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez (D), 49-40%, and businessman Andrew White (D), 48-41%. The latter two are facing each other in a May 22nd Democratic run-off for the party nomination.
Again, because of over-sampling Independents who seem to skew Democratic in unusually high percentages in this particular poll, Gov. Abbott’s standing is clearly under-stated. All other data shows him with very comfortable re-election leads and a mammoth advantage in campaign resources. --Jim Ellis Also seeing the at-large US House candidate list (see North Dakota Senate above), it appears certain that state Senator and former North Dakota Republican Party chairman Kelly Armstrong will face former state Senate Minority Leader Mac Schneider in the general election. Mr. Schneider is officially unopposed for the Democratic nomination, and Sen. Armstrong faces only two minor GOP candidates. State party convention delegate endorsements earlier this month gave the pair the inside track to a November ballot position, and such is being fulfilled.
--Jim Ellis We now see a slate of official Republican Senate candidates in the Montana race hoping to oppose two-term incumbent Jon Tester (D). The candidate filing period drew to a close on Friday. As expected, state Auditor Matt Rosendale, former District Judge Russell Fagg, state Sen. Al Olszewski (R-Flathead Valley), and businessman Troy Downing all submitted the candidate declaration documents. The June 5th Republican primary winner will face Sen. Tester who is unopposed in the Democratic primary. The Green and Libertarian parties will also have a presence on the general election ballot. Sen. Tester is favored for re-election and just began his preliminary media advertising blitz last week.
--Jim Ellis Lehigh Valley Congressman Charlie Dent (R-Allentown), who had long ago announced that he would not seek re-election, yesterday made public his plans to resign from the House sometime in May.
His decision to leave Congress early begins an interesting political situation. Under Pennsylvania election law, Gov. Tom Wolf (D) will have ten days from the official vacancy date to set the special replacement election. He must schedule the vote for no less than 60 days from the vacancy date but, after that requirement is met, he has great leeway over when to add the replacement contest to the election calendar. Since the 15th District and the new 7th CD, which houses the majority (72%) of the former Dent district territory, are significantly different, the candidates will be in a situation of running in one place to fill the balance of the term and another to win a full term in the next Congress. Gov. Wolf likely solves the problem by simply scheduling the replacement special concurrently with the regular, November 6th general election. --Jim Ellis Since it is now clear that Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-Brentwood) and former Gov. Phil Bredesen (D) will be their respective party nominees in the open Tennessee US Senate race, both are already raising copious amounts of money. According to their campaigns, Mr. Bredesen raised over $1.8 million during the quarter just ended, and Ms. Blackburn slightly more at approximately $2 million. Mr. Bredesen added to his campaign account with a $1.4 million self-contribution.
The Blackburn Campaign will report more than $6 million cash-on-hand. The Bredesen operation did not release their available resource number, but it appears the related figure will fall between $3.5 and $4 million. The Tennessee Senate campaign is shaping up to be long in duration, since both candidates are proceeding to the general election well in advance of the August 2nd Tennessee primary, and expensive. Rep. Blackburn is favored because of Tennessee’s strong Republican voting history since Mr. Bredesen was last on the ballot in 2006, but this contest promises to be very active with well-run efforts coming from both candidates. --Jim Ellis Yesterday, we reported that the liberal Working Families Party officially endorsed actress Cynthia Nixon in her quest to unseat Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D). While she is running in the Democratic primary, the Working Families line will provide her guaranteed ballot placement in the general election. Under New York election law, parties can cross-endorse individual candidates. Therefore, an individual’s name commonly appears on more than one ballot line.
Siena College released its latest New York survey (4/8-12; 692 NY registered voters) and finds Gov. Cuomo leading Ms. Nixon by a 58-27% count. While this obviously is a big lead, the margin is somewhat less than expected. In the Upstate areas outside of New York City, the spread is an even smaller 48-37%, which is offset by the poll’s reported 3:1 advantage the Governor has in the City. --Jim Ellis The aforementioned Monmouth University poll (see Pennsylvania Senate above) also tested the state’s Governor’s race. Paired opposite state Sen. Scott Wagner (R-York), Gov. Tom Wolf (D) opens up a large 47-31% lead. As with Sen. Casey, there is no doubt that the Governor has a clear edge at this point in the race, but taking into account the methodological flaws and Monmouth’s track record in the state, it is probably that the margin between the two candidates is less than stated.
In any event, both Gov. Wolf and Sen. Casey enjoy leads well beyond the polling margin of error. While it’s debatable whether the advantage is insurmountable, it is clear that the Republican candidates have a lot of ground to converse before even approaching victory range. --Jim Ellis |
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