It appears actress Cynthia Nixon is in for the long haul. Last month, she announced her Democratic primary challenge to Gov. Andrew Cuomo, and over the weekend she received the Working Families Party endorsement. The WFP is heavily backed by organized labor and, in fact, two pro-Cuomo unions left the WFP after the delegates’ weekend action.
Though this is a minor party that in most states would not be much of a factor, New York is different. Here, parties can cross-endorse candidates meaning the same contender will appear multiple times on the same ballot representing different political parties. At the end of the process, all of the candidates’ votes are melded and then counted as an aggregate number to determine the election outcome. While Ms. Nixon has little chance of upending Gov. Cuomo, her Working Families Party endorsement means that she will appear on the general election ballot even after losing the Democratic primary. There is little for Gov. Cuomo to worry about from an electoral standpoint, but Ms. Nixon’s presence in the race all the way to November could make what should be a dull campaign much more interesting. --Jim Ellis Minnesota Congressional District Democratic delegates met around the state over the weekend and attenders from certain local CD conventions endorsed candidates. As reported here yesterday, no endorsement was reached in the open 8th District to replace the retiring Rep. Rick Nolan (D-Crosby/Duluth), meaning a multi-candidate primary contest will ensue as a result. The Minnesota primary is scheduled for August 14th.
In the southeastern 2nd District, a race that was decided in 2016 by only two percentage points between now Representative Jason Lewis (R-Woodbury) and retired healthcare company executive Angie Craig (D), Democratic delegates reaffirmed their support for Ms. Craig and we can expect to see a re-match of the close campaign come this November. In the 3rd District, where incumbent Rep. Erik Paulsen (R-Eden Prairie) scored a 57% victory despite President Trump losing the suburban district by ten points, Democratic delegates are going in a different direction. While then-state Sen. Terri Bonoff (D) spent up to $2 million not counting outside expenditures on her behalf, the delegates turned to a candidate who has the ability to self-fund, Phillips Distilling Company heir Dean Phillips. Ms. Bonoff did not seek a re-match. Minnesota will be a hot political state this year. With an open Governor’s race, two US Senate campaigns, and potentially five of the state’s eight congressional districts in competitive status, voters in the Land of 10,000 Lakes will have a major say in how the national midterm elections unfold. --Jim Ellis Monmouth University released their latest Pennsylvania statewide poll (4/4-12; 414 PA registered and likely voters) and finds Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) holding a substantial 48-32% lead over Rep. Lou Barletta (R-Hazelton). The margin is such that there is no doubting that Sen. Casey enjoys a sizable advantage in this fledgling campaign, but this poll has serious flaws. First, the sample size of 414 voters for a state the size of Pennsylvania is small, and the eight-day sampling period is long. Keeping in mind that Monmouth missed the Pennsylvania presidential campaign result about a week before the election because President Trump’s vote was understated by a minimum of four percentage points, it would be fair to speculate that the current margin is likely a bit tighter than Monmouth projects.
--Jim Ellis Actress Cynthia Nixon drew a great deal of media attention in mid-March when she announced her Democratic primary challenge to New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, but the first released public data indicates she has a long way to go in becoming a serious contender. Two polls, from Marist College and the Remington Research Group using different survey technologies, project the Governor holding possibly insurmountable leads.
Marist (4/3-9; 697 NY registered voters) finds Governor Cuomo topping Ms. Nixon by a landslide 47 points, 68-21%. Remington Research (4/7-8; 2,038 NY likely Democratic primary voters via interactive voice response device) sees bit closer spread, but one that is more than formidable, at 60-20%. Gov. Cuomo is favored to win the Democratic primary and the November general election in order to secure a third term in office. --Jim Ellis Voters in the northern Phoenix suburbs will go to the polls on April 24th to choose a replacement for resigned Rep. Trent Franks (R-Peoria). In late February, Republicans nominated former state Senate President Pro Tempore Debbie Lesko, while Democrats chose physician Hiral Tipirneni.
OH Predictive Insights, a Phoenix-based survey research company, tested the special election on April 11th (500 likely AZ-8 special election voters) and found Ms. Lesko leading Dr. Tipirneni, 53-43%. The overwhelming number of Republican voters in this district allowed Ms. Lesko to develop the double-digit lead. On a positive front for Tipirneni, she led Lesko among Independent voters, 52-40%, and is solid within the Democratic base. Her problem is there are not enough Democrats and Independents to overcome Lesko’s Republican/conservative support. --Jim Ellis The first quarter Federal Election Commission financial disclosure reports will be published this week, but some candidates are already releasing their numbers. Such is the case for appointed Minnesota Sen. Tina Smith (D). According to her fledgling campaign, Sen. Smith has raised a whopping $1.84 million since she was appointed in early January. The campaign did not indicate its cash-on-hand figure. Her most significant Republican opponent, state Sen. Karin Housley (R-Stillwater), is reporting receipts of $514,000 with $501,000 in her campaign account.
--Jim Ellis Democratic delegates in Minnesota’s 8th Congressional District, a geographically huge seat that stretches from the Canadian border almost to the Twin Cities’ outer northern suburbs, met in Duluth over the weekend to officially endorse a candidate to succeed retiring Rep. Rick Nolan (D-Crosby/ Duluth). But, no candidate could obtain the required support level to earn the party endorsement after ten rounds of voting.
The two candidates who survived the longest were former state Rep. Joe Radinovich and ex-CIA analyst Leah Phifer. State Rep. Jason Metsa (D-Virginia), viewed by some as the favorite to eventually win the Democratic nomination, was eliminated after the third round. The aforementioned three candidates, along with retired television news anchor Michelle Lee, and North Branch Mayor Kirsten Kennedy, will advance to an August 14th primary election. Republicans have endorsed St. Louis County Commissioner Pete Stauber, who will be unopposed for the party nomination. Independent Skip Sandman has also qualified for the November ballot. This campaign is a Republican conversion opportunity. --Jim Ellis Sen. Bob Menendez (D), previously on trial for bribery until the Government’s case fell apart forcing them to end proceedings, appears in relatively strong pre-election position according to a new Monmouth University survey (4/6-10; 703 NJ adults; 632 NJ registered voters; weighted). According to the results, Sen. Menendez would lead former pharmaceutical CEO Bob Hugin (R), 53-32% including leaners to both candidates.
While the ballot test margin appears solid, spots of weakness do appear. The Senator’s job approval index is only 37:38% positive to negative among registered voters, and his personal favorability is an upside down 28:35%. Among white voters, his advantage is only 45-44% versus 66-14% among minority voters. In addition to minorities, his strongest groups are Democrats (92-4%), women (60-24%), and northern New Jersey voters (59-27%). His margin drops to 46-41% among men, 41-33% with Independents, and 48-40% among central New Jersey voters. --Jim Ellis In the week that Gov. Rick Scott (R) made his long-awaited Senate announcement, Public Policy Polling (4/10-11; 611 FL registered voters), surveying for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Philip Levine, finds Sen. Bill Nelson (D) leading the Governor by a 50-44% margin. Sen. Nelson scores a 47:37% positive favorability score, while Gov. Scott drops to 47:46%. To counter the PPP data, the New Republican PAC, an outside entity supporting Gov. Scott, claims that its internal McLaughlin & Associates poll (dates and sample size not available) finds the Governor clinging to a one point, 47-46% edge. We can expect this race to seesaw all the way to Election Day.
--Jim Ellis Colorado State Treasurer Walker Stapleton, so far the leading Republican gubernatorial candidate according to available public polls, may have trouble obtaining a ballot position.
Originally, Mr. Stapleton was planning to bypass the Colorado Republican Assembly convention, where delegates vote to place candidates on the primary ballot. A candidate must obtain at least 30% of the convention vote to advance to the primary ballot or obtain 1,500 signatures of registered Republican voters from each of the state’s seven congressional districts. Mr. Stapleton chose the latter route, but has now withdrawn his signatures because he discovered his petition firm filed some fraudulent entries. Therefore, he informed the Secretary of State that he is withdrawing all of his petitions. Instead, he will now make a last minute attempt to qualify for the ballot at the state Assembly, which is tomorrow. There, he faces Attorney General Cynthia Coffman, who had always planned to gain ballot access through Republican delegate support. In all, eleven GOP candidates have announced for Governor, and it remains to be seen just how many will actually qualify for the ballot. The 2018 Governor’s contest is open because incumbent John Hickenlooper (D) is ineligible to seek a third term. --Jim Ellis |
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