A day after Magellan Strategies released a survey that showed Rep. Martha McSally (R-Tucson) expanding her previous lead in the Republican Senate primary, OH Predictive Insights for ABC15 in Phoenix finds a completely different take. Their poll (4/10-11; 600 AZ 600 likely voters; 302 AZ likely Republican primary voters) shows ex-state Sen. Kelli Ward, who was in last place in the Magellan survey and all others previously commissioned, to be leading Rep. McSally and former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, 36-27-22%. Looking at the sample size of just 302 Republican voters from the entire state suggests the error factor is extremely high for this study, and even more questionable when seeing that no other survey result projects Ms. Ward with the overall lead.
In the general election, where the sample size of 600 should yield more accurate information, Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Phoenix), the consensus presumed Democratic nominee, leads all three Republicans. The closest match up comes with Rep. McSally, where the three-term Democratic Congresswoman leads 48-42%.
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