Yesterday, Gov. Jim Justice (R), believed to be the richest man in West Virginia, announced that he will seek re-election in 2020. Mr. Justice was first elected in 2016 as a Democrat, but publicly switched parties at one of President Trump’s rallies. It was thought that he might draw opposition in the Republican primary, and still may, but none has yet materialized. Gov. Justice would begin as the favorite to win again next year.
Attorney General Patrick Morrisey’s (R) campaign released their latest internal data, which is different than any other published survey. The Fabrizio Lee firm, polling for the National Republican Senatorial Committee (10/16-18; 600 WV likely voters), finds Mr. Morrisey leading Sen. Joe Manchin (D), 44-42%.
This is the first poll since May that finds Mr. Morrisey topping Sen. Manchin. During virtually the same period, Strategic Research Associates (10/12-19; 650 WV likely voters) finds Sen. Manchin ahead, 52-36%. While the Fabrizio data appears to be too favorable for Morrisey, the Strategic poll appears as an outlier on the other wing. In the last ten polls, Sen. Manchin has averaged 46.7% of the respondents’ preference, and topped 50% in only one of the surveys. Though Sen. Joe Manchin (D) has led consistently throughout this campaign, the common political wisdom suggested that his battle with Republican Attorney General Patrick Morrisey would tighten as Election Day began to draw near.
Vox Populi also tested the Mountain State Senate race (10/13-15; 789 WV “active” voters) and found the Senator maintaining a lead, but a smaller one than earlier perceived. This ballot test found a 44-40% split in Sen. Manchin’s favor, with undecideds breaking his way when pushed. The secondary ballot test yielded a 53-47% split. Mr. Morrisey will have to make a major move now if he is to reverse the race’s trajectory on Election Day. Monmouth University again surveyed the open 3rd Congressional District that contains southern West Virginia, and we see a substantial turnaround from the organization’s June poll. Four months ago, MU found state Sen. Richard Ojeda (D-Logan) leading state House Majority Whip Carol Miller (R-Huntington) 48-39% under the most favorable Democratic turnout model.
Monmouth’s new poll (10/10-14; 350 WV-3 likely voters) finds Ms. Miller rebounding to the point of overcoming Sen. Ojeda’s entire lead. With little difference among MU’s three projected turnout models: low, standard, and “Democratic surge,” Ms. Miller has developed a small advantage, 48-45%. In the Senate race, little has changed in this district, however. In June, Sen. Joe Manchin (D) held a 53-39% lead over Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R) under the standard turnout model. Now, Monmouth projects, the Manchin advantage is a full 20 points here, 56-36%. It was always believed the West Virginia Senate race would become a toss-up despite Sen. Joe Manchin (D) pulling out to an early double-digit lead over Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R). Last week, Mr. Morrisey released a survey showing the two tied, but that was quickly countered with Democratic data posting a comfortable lead for the Senator. Now, the Tarrance Group, polling for the Senate Leadership Fund (9/23-25; 612 “likely registered voters”), finds Sen. Manchin leading 47-43%, which is within the polling margin of error.
The term “likely registered voters” is curious and a phrase not seen in most polling. The 612-polling sample, not winnowed into a likely voter segment, suggests that the error factor may be greater than stated. A week after Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R) released his internal 1892 organization survey that showed him tied with Sen. Joe Manchin (D), a new statewide media poll from Gray Television station WSAZ TV in Huntington (Strategic Research Associates; 9/17-26; 650 WV likely voters) finds the Democratic incumbent leading, 46-38%. This, despite President Trump scoring a job approval rating of 62:34% favorable to unfavorable.
The polling firm handling Attorney General Patrick Morrisey’s (R) campaign for US Senate just released a new study that flies in the face of other recent results. The 1892 organization (9/24-25; 500 WV likely voters) finds Mr. Morrisey fighting back to tie Sen. Joe Manchin (D) at 45-45%. Other polls have found Sen. Manchin holding about a nine-point advantage, but this latest data is the first to surface in many weeks.
It is quite possible that Morrisey is moving to close the gap, especially with the 1892 analysts finding that Independents are now breaking his way, but more data will be required to prove that this result is not an anomaly. Last week, Harper Polling released a survey showing Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R) closing to within a 47-41% spread. Now, Research America (formerly Repass Research in West Virginia) has released their new survey (8/16-26; 404 WV likely voters from each of the state’s 55 counties) suggesting a slightly different cut, but in the same range as Harper. According to Research America, the Manchin lead is 46-38%.
Reversing the trend that places Sen. Joe Manchin (D) ahead by double-digit margins, Gravis Marketing released a new survey (8/23-26; 600 WV likely voters) that finds Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R) pulling into within six points of the Senator, 47-41%. Heavy anti-Manchin outside organization advertising has been airing, which likely at least partially explains the tightening campaign. Additionally, President Trump has already made one appearance in the state for Mr. Morrisey and that, too, is helping the Republican in a state where the President is most popular.
Former energy company CEO and convicted felon Don Blankenship, defeated in the West Virginia Senate Republican primary earlier this year, is continuing in his attempt to gain ballot access either as an Independent or minor party nominee for the general election. His problem: West Virginia, as do many states, has a law that prohibits candidates who lose a primary to run in the associated general election. Yesterday, the West Virginia state Supreme Court upheld a lower court ruling that denied Blankenship further ballot access. But, the defeated candidate says, he is still exploring further options. It doesn’t appear there is any way around the state’s “sore loser law”, meaning that Blankenship will not be on the November ballot. Additionally, his stated reason for running: to help defeat Republican nominee Patrick Morrisey and not actually win the election for himself, certainly hasn’t been effective in convincing judges to waive the state’s election law. Rep. Evan Jenkins (R-Huntington), who lost the Senate Republican nomination to Attorney General Patrick Morrisey earlier in the year, was just appointed to fill a West Virginia state Supreme Court vacancy, meaning he will immediately resign from Congress. Gov. Jim Justice (R), who made the appointment, has also declared that he will not schedule a special election to fill the balance of Mr. Jenkins’ congressional term. In the open 3rd District general election, state House Majority Whip Carol Miller (R-Huntington) is running against state Sen. Richard Ojeda (D-Logan) in an open seat race that is becoming highly competitive.
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