Monmouth University again surveyed the open 3rd Congressional District that contains southern West Virginia, and we see a substantial turnaround from the organization’s June poll. Four months ago, MU found state Sen. Richard Ojeda (D-Logan) leading state House Majority Whip Carol Miller (R-Huntington) 48-39% under the most favorable Democratic turnout model.
Monmouth’s new poll (10/10-14; 350 WV-3 likely voters) finds Ms. Miller rebounding to the point of overcoming Sen. Ojeda’s entire lead. With little difference among MU’s three projected turnout models: low, standard, and “Democratic surge,” Ms. Miller has developed a small advantage, 48-45%.
In the Senate race, little has changed in this district, however. In June, Sen. Joe Manchin (D) held a 53-39% lead over Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R) under the standard turnout model. Now, Monmouth projects, the Manchin advantage is a full 20 points here, 56-36%.
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