It was always believed the West Virginia Senate race would become a toss-up despite Sen. Joe Manchin (D) pulling out to an early double-digit lead over Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R). Last week, Mr. Morrisey released a survey showing the two tied, but that was quickly countered with Democratic data posting a comfortable lead for the Senator. Now, the Tarrance Group, polling for the Senate Leadership Fund (9/23-25; 612 “likely registered voters”), finds Sen. Manchin leading 47-43%, which is within the polling margin of error.
The term “likely registered voters” is curious and a phrase not seen in most polling. The 612-polling sample, not winnowed into a likely voter segment, suggests that the error factor may be greater than stated.
The Rundown Blog
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